ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Large jump in Theta-E in the core.
356 to 364.
Obviously picking up the high OHC water.

[TallyTracker]

If it keeps moving that way, Laura might miss the Isle of Youth to the south!

[artist]

 https://twitter.com/observint/status/1297844749009854466

[Frank P]

Pressure looks to be back down to 1002 mbar, and the center is WNW of the last fix.

Well Laura looks likes it is getting a little more northerly component in the vis sat loop presentation, especially the overall nice cloud presentation she is exhibiting att...

side note: Marco just seems to be drifting off the the NNW very slowly right... not sure how that plays into the Laura forecast, and he doesn't appear to be in hurry to go anywhere fast.... we've seen nothing from Marco on the MS coast..

[Shell Mound]

To be honest, a track into Cameron/Johnson’s Bayou, LA, would be the best-case scenario thus far. Such a path, besides avoiding Greater Houston and Galveston Bay, would also miss Beaumont/Port Arthur/Orange, TX, as well as New Iberia/Morgan City, LA. Even with a large wind field, Laura would produce its worst storm surge over the least populated region of LA, while Southeast TX would be on the western side of the system. At this point in time a Category-4+ TC is looking rather unlikely, the trend is weaker and farther east, and a blend of available data would strongly suggest a landfall somewhere around Cameron/Johnson’s Bayou, LA. In terms of impacts to life and property this would be the “least bad option,” even though some small communities would suffer greatly. At the end of the day Laura may not be worse than another Ike or Rita: locally significant, certainly, but far from a worst-case scenario, since Ike and Rita, however catastrophic, do exist as benchmarks, and we know that a Category-4+ with a wind field as large as Laura’s would be even more catastrophic, especially if it were to track closer to Houston/Galveston, the Golden Triangle, and/or Morgan City/New Iberia. Currently, however, the only sizeable urban area in the path looks to be Lake Charles, and that city is fortunately inland.

You seem to be ignoring the data that doesn’t fit your narrative. Ensembles so far put Houston in the crosshairs and ukmet and gfs are the equivalent of a category 4 when resolution is taken into account. This doesn’t even account for the fact that all of the models run so far do not have a handle on short term evolution and all have the center too far east to start.

The latest reconnaissance fix indicates that the centre has shifted significantly WNW, despite having relocated southward, so the LLC is quickly adjusting itself and tracking closer to the eastward solutions, to not mention the NHC’s forecast. In fact the latest fix indicates that the short-term movement is nearly NW. This isn’t going to pass south of the Isla de la Juventud; if anything, it will pass just to its north. The UKMET has performed well relative to the other models, especially in the short term, but so has the HWRF, and the UKMET, like the ECMWF, has a notable westward bias with most tropical systems, just as the GFS and HWRF tend to have a rightward bias. When the ridge is stronger than analysed, I tend to give more weight to the UK/EC; when the ridge is overestimated, I lay greater emphasis on the GFS/HWRF. In this case both the ridge and Laura are proving a bit weaker than expected, so Laura will be more susceptible to Marco’s presence, and thus track farther east over the Gulf of Mexico.

[St0rmTh0r]

It seems like Florida's deflector shield at full power so far this season.

So far Haiti and the western Dominican Republic have seen by far the worst effects from Laura, but have received the least media attention.

https://twitter.com/gasmuha/status/1297942609055436800

That's why I hate it when people only focus on their city or state. What about the people being severely effected in other places?

[Blinhart]

To be honest, a track into Cameron/Johnson’s Bayou, LA, would be the best-case scenario thus far. Such a path, besides avoiding Greater Houston and Galveston Bay, would also miss Beaumont/Port Arthur/Orange, TX, as well as New Iberia/Morgan City, LA. Even with a large wind field, Laura would produce its worst storm surge over the least populated region of LA, while Southeast TX would be on the western side of the system. At this point in time a Category-4+ TC is looking rather unlikely, the trend is weaker and farther east, and a blend of available data would strongly suggest a landfall somewhere around Cameron/Johnson’s Bayou, LA. In terms of impacts to life and property this would be the “least bad option,” even though some small communities would suffer greatly. At the end of the day Laura may not be worse than another Ike or Rita: locally significant, certainly, but far from a worst-case scenario, since Ike and Rita, however catastrophic, do exist as benchmarks, and we know that a Category-4+ with a wind field as large as Laura’s would be even more catastrophic, especially if it were to track closer to Houston/Galveston, the Golden Triangle, and/or Morgan City/New Iberia. Currently, however, the only sizeable urban area in the path looks to be Lake Charles, and that city is fortunately inland.

This would actually be horrible, because it would flood areas all the way up to I-10, due to the Mermentau River Plateau, if you run the flood surge map with upto 15 feet, it would put the water at the doorstep of my house, and I live 30 miles as the crow flies from the coast. Also even though Lake Charles is inland a bit, the Calcasieu River runs right up to it, it would but all the refineries underwater and so much of the area north of Lake Charles would be underwater also. Another thing is Vermillion Bay would get about 10-15 foot surge which could cause a lot of upstream flooding in Lafayette.

[Hurricaneman]

Here’s my unprofessional opinion, for official products go to NHC, NWS and NOAA

The ridge has trapped Marco and in turn Laura will definitely be farther west as Marco isn’t strong enough to break down the ridge, but I could be wrong

[Sanibel]

Wow...We're getting blasted by the outer squall band right now...Strong gusts and rain!...

[Blown Away]

Laura looking like a SW Louisiana track or E looking more likely than a TX landfall based on today’s movement and models.

[superfly]

If it keeps moving that way, Laura might miss the Isle of Youth to the south!

Miss to the north if anything...

[dhweather]

Key West radar at 248nm - at appears the center is moving due west, or maybe just south of due west.

[AtascocitaWX]

Hello Long time Lurker , First post ever. Love all the different opinions and predictions. Question with a possible Cat 3 storm going into say Tx/LA border area, where would the storm surge impact the most?

[aspen]

Laura doesn’t have a great internal structure at the moment and it will be slightly disrupted again by one final landfall in Cuba, but afterwards, it will have 48-52 hours in a low-shear, high SST, and moist environment in the Gulf with a favorable UL pattern. This will likely be enough time for a proper core to build and for it to rapidly intensify, so just because it’s a little tilted now, doesn’t mean it won’t be able to quickly recover.

[bella_may]

Looks like it’s starting to deal with a little shear

[storminabox]

It's very breezy today in Miami. I don't if that's loosely associated with Laura or not, but it's interesting to note either way.

[Blinhart]

Looks like it’s starting to deal with a little shear

Actually she is getting past the shear that had made her look so bad earlier. She is looking a ton better already.

[Blinhart]

It's very breezy today in Miami. I don't if that's loosely associated with Laura or not, but it's interesting to note either way.

The Weather Channel is saying it is related to Laura.

[emings]

Hello Long time Lurker , First post ever. Love all the different opinions and predictions. Question with a possible Cat 3 storm going into say Tx/LA border area, where would the storm surge impact the most?

Hurricane Rita made landfall as a Cat 3 in the same area...Storm surge values were 12 to 18 feet across most of Cameron parish, and 10 to 12 feet across most of Vermilion Parish with Holly Beach, LA completely leveled to the ground. Storm surge values of 8 to 10 feet across eastern Jefferson and Orange counties in Southeast Texas

[supercane4867]

Looks like the center is about to cross the skinniest portion of western Cuba