#2 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 23, 2020 8:04 am
* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP982020 08/23/20 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 31 37 43 50 55 57 56 57 57 58 57 56 56
V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 31 37 43 50 55 57 56 57 57 58 57 48 35
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 27 28 29 29 28 26 24 21 20 19 17 23
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 19 17 14 14 17 18 15 23 32 39 43 39 33 26 20 23 22
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 2 3 3 0 5 7 4 4 6 7 6 8 7 2 3
SHEAR DIR 65 71 54 48 54 70 62 78 81 78 74 59 56 48 64 65 66
SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.1 29.7 28.8
POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 157 159 160 160 159 159 160 160 159 157 158 161 163 159 150
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -51.9 -52.4 -51.5 -52.3 -51.5 -52.3 -51.7 -52.5 -51.5 -52.5 -51.9 -52.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 4 4 6 4 8 5 8 5 8 6 9 6 9 6
700-500 MB RH 71 72 76 79 82 85 85 82 80 81 84 83 80 77 80 82 79
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -3 -1 13 18 16 16 3 -2 -10 -15 -3 7 0 20 39 67 96
200 MB DIV 62 64 96 105 101 97 102 130 85 123 80 136 73 105 86 88 99
700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -2 -3 -4 -3 -2 1 2 1 1 1 -1 -1 -3 -3
LAND (KM) 267 248 237 225 200 148 115 97 93 129 151 164 150 127 60 -13 -104
LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 96.1 95.8 95.8 95.9 96.1 96.5 97.1 97.9 98.5 99.1 99.6 99.9 99.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 1 2 3 3 4 4 3 3 2 0 1 3 4 4 5
HEAT CONTENT 24 24 24 24 24 25 26 27 28 28 29 30 30 29 29 26 15
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.2
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 33. 36. 39. 42. 45. 47. 50.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -7. -12. -18. -22. -23. -23. -22. -24. -25.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 8. 7. 6. 5.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 12. 18. 25. 30. 32. 31. 32. 32. 33. 32. 31. 31.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.3 96.1
** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982020 INVEST 08/23/20 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 7.2
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.18 1.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.61 4.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 1.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -5.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 0.3
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.2% 18.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.8% 18.6% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.8% 9.2% 2.6% 1.4% 0.3% 6.0% 28.6% 13.3%
Bayesian: 0.1% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Consensus: 0.3% 10.9% 7.2% 0.5% 0.1% 7.6% 15.8% 4.5%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982020 INVEST 08/23/20 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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