ATL: LAURA - Models

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Hammy
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3261 Postby Hammy » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:12 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:Not that it needs to be mentioned, but for entertainment purposes, the NAM 3k brings Laura down to 885mb in the gulf. Please do not take this seriously.


I'll start this off by saying I don't in any way think that pressure is going to happen

It always seems like it goes with the absolute maximum that's physically possible with the conditions (similar to the maximum heat potential map) but I will say it's a good predictor of trends and atmospheric conditions--when it explodes a hurricane like that it does tend to precede rapid intensification. It did it with Michael, Harvey, and Hanna and I don't recall it happening on a consistent basis (outside of sporadic runs) with storms that didn't eventually strengthen significantly, especially once you get closer to the time frame.
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stormlover2013

Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3262 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:12 pm

Icon Sabine pass tx
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3263 Postby jaguars_22 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:17 pm

FWIW the navgem finally came around to the west after going into Louisiana last few runs... lol
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3264 Postby Highteeld » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:20 pm

The MPI in the mature stages of Laura will be around 900mb

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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3265 Postby ATCcane » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:21 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:Icon Sabine pass tx



Very slight shift west before landfall.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3266 Postby catskillfire51 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:24 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:FWIW the navgem finally came around to the west after going into Louisiana last few runs... lol

Where did you see that?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3267 Postby jaguars_22 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:28 pm

Tropical tidbits 12z model
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3268 Postby cainjamin » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:28 pm

 https://twitter.com/HurricaneManWx/status/1297984357571997697




A couple EPS members restrengthen Laura after it moves back off the East Coast next week... And some of them also block Laura in and have it heading back west or stalling. Nothing to worry about yet, but something to keep an eye on and see how the models trend.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3269 Postby Blinhart » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:31 pm

cainjamin wrote:https://twitter.com/HurricaneManWx/status/1297984357571997697?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

A couple EPS members restrengthen Laura after it moves back off the East Coast next week... And some of them also block Laura in and have it heading back west or stalling. Nothing to worry about yet, but something to keep an eye on and see how the models trend.


That has to be for the next system on the radar.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3270 Postby cainjamin » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:33 pm

Blinhart wrote:
cainjamin wrote:https://twitter.com/HurricaneManWx/status/1297984357571997697?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

A couple EPS members restrengthen Laura after it moves back off the East Coast next week... And some of them also block Laura in and have it heading back west or stalling. Nothing to worry about yet, but something to keep an eye on and see how the models trend.


That has to be for the next system on the radar.


 https://twitter.com/HurricaneManWx/status/1297995499610476544




Here's a closer view. Those initial positions off the East Coast are all Laura. Then all the ones creeping in after are potential-Nana.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3271 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:36 pm

18z GFS coming in, slightly stronger with initialization.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3272 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:39 pm

18z GFS doesn't waste any time in strengthening it once it gets into the GOM.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3273 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:40 pm

18z GFS has nearly a 30mb drop in 24 hours:
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3274 Postby SoupBone » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:40 pm

NDG wrote:18z GFS doesn't waste any time in strengthening it once it gets into the GOM.



Does it not also look further west of the previous?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3275 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:41 pm

18z GFS hour 36:
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3276 Postby jaguars_22 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:41 pm

I thought the stronger the storm the further west? Gfs doesn’t think so
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3277 Postby catskillfire51 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:43 pm

At 42 hrs pretty much matches the 12z
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3278 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:44 pm

Slightly further west so far on the 18z GFS run.

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3279 Postby catskillfire51 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:45 pm

GFS 48 HRS 7 mb stronger and further west vs 12z
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3280 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:45 pm

18z GFS hour 24-48:
Image
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