ATL: LAURA - Models

[SoupBone]

GFS 48 HRS 7 mb stronger and further west.

Definitely further west. How did it initialize?

[Blinhart]

https://twitter.com/HurricaneManWx/status/1297984357571997697?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

A couple EPS members restrengthen Laura after it moves back off the East Coast next week... And some of them also block Laura in and have it heading back west or stalling. Nothing to worry about yet, but something to keep an eye on and see how the models trend.

That has to be for the next system on the radar.

https://twitter.com/HurricaneManWx/status/1297995499610476544

Here's a closer view. Those initial positions off the East Coast are all Laura. Then all the ones creeping in after are potential-Nana.

Oh ok, I see it is for Sept 1-8.

[catskillfire51]

GFS 48 HRS 7 mb stronger and further west.

Definitely further west. How did it initialize?

Actually decent.

[supercane4867]

18z GFS is stronger than any previous runs.

[catskillfire51]

54 HRS GFS is slightly west and 6MB stronger then 12z

[Nederlander]

Likely to end up around Sabine Pass on this run. Not much difference, just slightly W and stronger

Edit: Nope looks to be about the same near Cameron

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hour 60 about to make landfall:

[HoustonFrog]

5pm - 7am - shifts west
7am - 5pm - shifts east

Rinse, repeat each day

[tolakram]

GFS 18Z run

[Steve]

Looks like it's headed for the LA side of the border. So Cameron/Hackberry and those little communities and then it's shifting more to the NNW/N at 54. Not sure how much of the inner core will affect Texas besides the Triangle. Looks like Lake Charles, DeQuincy, Ragley, DeRidder, Jasper and other communities along the Sabine.

[SoupBone]

GFS 18Z run
https://i.imgur.com/M1hPPqR.gif

Boy it just hooks right, right at the end turning north. That run has been the first GFS run that I can recall that didn't flip flop.

[Nederlander]

No real changes to track, slightly stronger

[NDG]

GFS 18Z run
https://i.imgur.com/M1hPPqR.gif

Boy it just hooks right, right at the end turning north. That run has been the first GFS run that I can recall that didn't flip flop.

4 runs in a row that within a 20 miles radius and about the same time on landfall, that's very consistent.

[SouthFLTropics]

https://twitter.com/HurricaneManWx/status/1297984357571997697?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

A couple EPS members restrengthen Laura after it moves back off the East Coast next week... And some of them also block Laura in and have it heading back west or stalling. Nothing to worry about yet, but something to keep an eye on and see how the models trend.

The possible "Laura-Loop" that the couple of EPS members are showing is not unprecedented. Hurricane Ivan did that back in 2004. It came back around and hit the East Coast of Florida, albeit in a much weaker state than it was when it hit Pensacola.

[Kazmit]

The past 3 runs the GFS has actually been pretty consistent at landfall with pressure in the 950s and all in western LA.

[LSU Saint]

GFS 18Z run
https://i.imgur.com/M1hPPqR.gif

Boy it just hooks right, right at the end turning north. That run has been the first GFS run that I can recall that didn't flip flop.

What makes this hook as it approaches Texas like that? Is there a chance that doesn’t hook and just plows on through?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The past 3 runs the GFS has actually been pretty consistent at landfall with pressure in the 950s and all in western LA.

Yeah, it's starting to lock in as far as landfall goes.

[catskillfire51]

GFS 18Z run
https://i.imgur.com/M1hPPqR.gif

Boy it just hooks right, right at the end turning north. That run has been the first GFS run that I can recall that didn't flip flop.

What makes this hook as it approaches Texas like that? Is there a chance that doesn’t hook and just plows on through?

Reaching the end of the high pressure ridge thats pushing her west and wrapping around it.

[Frank P]

12z and 18z GFS model runs look pretty close in the final landfall location of Laura, maybe a touch west, but the overall size of Laura on the 18z is appears is larger.. seems like the models have finally started to lock in the SW coastal areas of LA and perhaps the upper TX coast might be affected as well if some of the ensemble models come to fruition... IMO... wonder how much coastal erosion will transpire along the LA coast from Laura, certainly not going to be good... and hope all the residents get the heck out of harms way... been there and done it with Camille and Katrina.... seeing a beast like this coming right at you is a painfully gut wrenching feeling that I hope to never experience again.. God Bless all those in harms way...

[FixySLN]

12z and 18z GFS model runs look pretty close in the final landfall location of Laura, maybe a touch west, but the overall size of Laura on the 18z is appears is larger.. seems like the models have finally started to lock in the SW coastal areas of LA and perhaps the upper TX coast might be affected as well if some of the ensemble models come to fruition... IMO... wonder how much coastal erosion will transpire along the LA coast from Laura, certainly not going to be good... and hope all the residents get the heck out of harms way... been there and done it with Camille and Katrina.... seeing a beast like this coming right at you is a painfully gut wrenching feeling that I hope to never experience again.. God Bless all those in harms way...

We've got Storm Surge warnings all the way to SE MS, there's no telling. If it gets any bigger, might expand that to AL.