ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Recon is taking off from the Carolinas...it’s gonna be a while before they arrive, which should leave 2-3 hours for us to argue over where the center of Laura is.

A NOAA recon took off a few minutes ago from Lakeland.

Looks like that one will arrive somewhere between 7:00 and 7:20 pm ET.

Hopefully just in time, looks like the LLC will be making landfall about that time just SW of Habana.

[tolakram]

[Evenstar]

A little bit off topic, but I wonder if the folks from Pitbulls & Parolees tv show have to evacuate. Their shelter is in New Orleans. What a horrendous logistical nightmare that would be.

Sorry. Back to regularly scheduled programming.

[aspen]

A NOAA recon took off a few minutes ago from Lakeland.

Looks like that one will arrive somewhere between 7:00 and 7:20 pm ET.

Hopefully just in time, looks like the LLC will be making landfall about that time just SW of Habana.

Maybe the flight coming from the Carolinas will be able to intercept Laura emerging off of the Cuban coast...if Laura is traveling fast enough.

[SouthDadeFish]

Based on recent satellite trends and the fact that Laura has managed to avoid land all day, I'm growing increasingly concerned we will see a very powerful hurricane in the Gulf over the next few days...

[MBryant]

Cameron Parish is under a Mandatory Evacuation.

That whole parish just about goes underwater with a high tide. Parts of Cameron parish are actually due south of us in Orange. The Sabine meanders northeast from it's mouth before heading more northerly.

I know all this, I crab in that area.

Howdy neighbor. You crabbing off old 90?

[tiger_deF]

Even with the center being partially over water for a good period of time, Laura has still been rammed directly into Hispaniola and Cuba while maintaining strength and keeping a decent convective structure. Just like pre-Laura 97L was out in the Atlantic, she's a fighter

[catskillfire51]

Does anyone else notice on weathernerds satellite it actually seems like Laura is being pushed west? She seems to get flattened on her east side.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Based on recent satellite trends and the fact that Laura has managed to avoid land all day, I'm growing increasingly concerned we will see a very powerful hurricane in the Gulf over the next few days...

As previously stated, I share your fear. I might not by a Pro Met but what I've learned as an Environmental Historian/Anthropologist (yup that's my job studying how people cope with climate and weather related disasters, I hold several degrees to prove such) and being an advent life-long weather watcher, I'm very concerned about Laura's possible future.

[aspen]

The first recon flight should arrive in 45-55 minutes, hopefully enough to get a pass before Laura’s final Cuban landfall.

[Nederlander]

Does anyone else notice on weathernerds satellite it actually seems like Laura is being pushed west? She seems to get flattened on her east side.

I’m actually seeing a more northerly component to her movement the past few hours. Looks like she may clear Cuba on the north side of the forecast track.. But my eyes are also really tired lol

[cfisher]

Almost due W jog now as it makes landfall. Should help the center avoid the taller mountains to the north

[alan1961]

Recon is taking off from the Carolinas...it’s gonna be a while before they arrive, which should leave 2-3 hours for us to argue over where the center of Laura is.

A NOAA recon took off a few minutes ago from Lakeland.

Looks like that one will arrive somewhere between 7:00 and 7:20 pm ET.

Not far now

[catskillfire51]

Does anyone else notice on weathernerds satellite it actually seems like Laura is being pushed west? She seems to get flattened on her east side.

I’m actually seeing a more northerly component to her movement the past few hours. Looks like she may clear Cuba on the north side of the forecast track.. But my eyes are also really tired lol

Yeah she may just be getting consolidated and i've been watching satellite for too long.

[sphelps8681]

Seems some people are talking about jogs of path east or west but it is confusing if you don't state Cuba or landfall on the US coast. Just asking if ya'll could be more specific as to where you are talking about. That might help some of the questions. Thanks for all ya'll do.

[Kingarabian]

Seems some people are talking about jogs of path east or west but it is confusing if you don't state Cuba or landfall on the US coast. Just asking if ya'll could be more specific as to where you are talking about. That might help some of the questions. Thanks for all ya'll do.

They're talking about the short term/ present motion. The long term motion discussion is usually in the models thread.

[Chris90]

Well on its way to establish an inner core.

https://i.imgur.com/MFihLwz.jpg

That microwave image reminds me an awful lot of a scorpion.

I don’t think Cuba will put too much of a dent in her structure. I think the fireworks will go off not too long after she has passed Cuba. I anticipate a major about 36 hours from now, maybe sooner.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Seems some people are talking about jogs of path east or west but it is confusing if you don't state Cuba or landfall on the US coast. Just asking if ya'll could be more specific as to where you are talking about. That might help some of the questions. Thanks for all ya'll do.

Don't allow all the talk about "jogs" to confuse or stress you. In my experience the NHC cone is by far the most accurate of projection methods. Stick with the cone and you'll be fine.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Hurricane watches put up from Galveston to Morgan City, LA

Recurrence interval for Galveston/Houston landfalls is about 10 years, I think, so I guess might be about time...

[sphelps8681]

Ok the center is undeniable now. that is right next to the radar. a good bit west of the 11am advisory and likely to miss all the terrain. and stay plenty offshore.

https://i.ibb.co/C01q5kn/Capture.png

How will this effect landfall? More East or West?