ATL: LAURA - Models

[supercane4867]

heading for a sub-930mb landfall @57hr

[Blown Away]

Huh..... FWIW.... https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200824/70edbd675a811e0d03f0d58354715c57.jpg

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Wow, let’s hope this becomes a trend.

[Highteeld]

HWRF would seem to be making landfall right at the tx/la border. in reality, this would be ideal for max intensity has the coastline there as the most curvature which would induce the most frictional convergence

[Nederlander]

HWRF much closer to TX on this run

[Beef Stew]

HWRF is still gunning for a 125-130kt landfall by the looks of it. Slight shift west for what it's worth.

[davidiowx]

CDO is colder than 12z

https://i.imgur.com/csqzZm0.png

That is sickening to look at.

[tolakram]

[eastcoastFL]

https://i.imgur.com/XTFGloE.png

127kts? That would be trrrible. Hopefully it’s moving fast

[Beef Stew]

HWRF would seem to be making landfall right at the tx/la border. in reality, this would be ideal for max intensity has the coastline there as the most curvature which would induce the most frictional convergence

Right, and it would also be the 'ideal' location for severe storm surge due to the curvature.

[supercane4867]

Landfall at peak intensity 928.5mb

[catskillfire51]

https://i.imgur.com/XTFGloE.png

A very sharp turn at the end to make it to LA

[dantonlsu]

https://i.imgur.com/XTFGloE.png

A very sharp turn at the end to make it to LA

Would be alot of anxious people awaiting that turn!

[tolakram]

Ridiculous intensity IMO. Could it happen, yes. Does the HWRF tend to overdo intensity at longer ranges? Yes.

[Nederlander]

[dantonlsu]

When does the EURO run again?

[SoupBone]

The HWRF landfallis way too close for comfort in Houston.

[SoupBone]

HWRF much closer to TX on this run

It's the same right hook (north) turn that the GFS showed, but slightly more west.

[aspen]

Yet another 925-930 mbar HWRF run into the TX/LA border region. This run gives Laura just a little more than 48 hours over open water before landfall.

[Kingarabian]

Ridiculous intensity IMO. Could it happen, yes. Does the HWRF tend to overdo intensity at longer ranges? Yes.

Well if the globals are showing intensities near 950mb, a reduction of about 20mb could be factored in to make up due to the lower resolutions. So the HWRF while I hope it's wrong, can verify. It's within range of the other models.

[Beef Stew]

Not saying that it will happen, but this HWRF solution (130kts) would tie Laura with the Last Island Storm of 1856 for most intense landfalling LA hurricane in terms of windspeed, If I'm not mistaken. Just for reference.