ATL: LAURA - Models

[catskillfire51]

So why yall think the stronger west track isn't holding they seem to be going east just as strong. Yall think we are finally honing in on landfall?

[FixySLN]

So why yall think the stronger west track isn't holding they seem to be going east just as strong. Yall think we are finally honing in on landfall?

Nah. We'll be wobble watching and looking at shifts even after it hits the gulf.

[SoupBone]

So why yall think the stronger west track isn't holding they seem to be going east just as strong. Yall think we are finally honing in on landfall?

The last 4 GFS runs (thanks NDG) were very consistent, with these others showing very similar landfalls. It's 2020, so no.

[catskillfire51]

So why yall think the stronger west track isn't holding they seem to be going east just as strong. Yall think we are finally honing in on landfall?

The last 4 GFS runs (thanks NDG) were very consistent, with these others showing very similar landfalls. It's 2020, so no.

Best answer yet thanks

[Kingarabian]

I don't think we'll know the final landfall spot until 24 hours from now. There's a spread between the ensembles and the deterministic models.

[tolakram]

Stop looking for things to get angry about. Off topic posts will be deleted. There's a bunch of nervous people here, please stay on topic.

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF still has a cat 1 half way through Arkansas

[Hammy]

Huh..... FWIW.... https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200824/70edbd675a811e0d03f0d58354715c57.jpg

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Wow, let’s hope this becomes a trend.

I think this run started off pretty strange, had the center in the wrong place and weaker.

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro rolling. 994mb about to come off of Cuba in 9 hours. Might be a little more south so far.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Ridiculous intensity IMO. Could it happen, yes. Does the HWRF tend to overdo intensity at longer ranges? Yes.

We're at 48 hours from when the HWRF is saying this is going to become a monster. That's not exactly long range. Yes, it's a higher end possibility with limited support, but the GOMEX is pipping hot and favorable conditions are waiting for it.

I think it's going to peak around 105 knots personally, not nearly as high as the HWRF is predicting, but it's on the table.

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro rolling. 994mb about to come off of Cuba in 9 hours. Might be a little more south so far.

Down to 981mb hour 18.

[Nederlander]

18z Euro rolling. 994mb about to come off of Cuba in 9 hours. Might be a little more south so far.

Down to 981mb hour 18.

Quite a bit deeper than 12z (12mb)

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro rolling. 994mb about to come off of Cuba in 9 hours. Might be a little more south so far.

Down to 981mb hour 18.

974mb Hour 24. Much stronger than the the past couple of runs.

[catskillfire51]

ECMWF stronger and more southern than 12z at hour 24

[chris_fit]

18Z EURO down to the 960s @ 33 hours - MUCH stronger than 12Z

[Nederlander]

How was initialization?

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro rolling. 994mb about to come off of Cuba in 9 hours. Might be a little more south so far.

Down to 981mb hour 18.

Quite a bit deeper than 12z (12mb)

Yeah 958mb already @ hour 30. Looks like Texas on this run. It's more south compared to the 12z.

[Kingarabian]

How was initialization?

Pretty good. Close enough. Almost inline with the HWRF in initialization.

[catskillfire51]

[chris_fit]

948mb @ 48hrs Bombing it out!