ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kazmit]

Laura certainly looks like she is going to be a problem for someone along the NW Gulf coast. One thing to watch is just how much the Saharan air layer currently to the north over Florida as seen on this loop might impact how strong she gets in the GOM. The skies are hazy in South Florida due to the SAL and it looks to be heading west. Hoping that there is just enough over the GOM to hold her back from bombing out:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

That map you keep posting is NOT Saharan Air Layer.

https://i.ibb.co/cwyB4Xv/SAL2.jpg

The GOM looks like one of the most moist places in the basin according to this.

[eastcoastFL]

Laura certainly looks like she is going to be a problem for someone along the NW Gulf coast. One thing to watch is just how much the Saharan air layer currently to the north over Florida as seen on this loop might impact how strong she gets in the GOM. The skies are hazy in South Florida due to the SAL and it looks to be heading west. Hoping that there is just enough over the GOM to hold her back from bombing out:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

That map you keep posting is NOT Saharan Air Layer.

https://i.ibb.co/cwyB4Xv/SAL2.jpg

That map looks like Laura is headed for the best spot in the Atlantic basin to thrive.

[Snowman67]

The 8PM EST Advisory still shows this a TC at 2PM EST tomorrow. I thought that they would have had it as a hurricane by then. I know it has to go over another strip of land in Cuba, but won't be surprised if she's a hurricane prior to then.

[cfisher]

update
https://imgur.com/a/Innlnj6

[Ken711]

LMAO


...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING LAURA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
8:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 24
Location: 22.1°N 82.8°W
Moving: WNW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

I can’t remember another storm that only gets stronger on land.

It seems any mountains or terrain in Cuba haven't done much to slow development.

[supercane4867]

We may see a formative eye structure on satellite as early as tomorrow morning.

[SoupBone]

LMAO


...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING LAURA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
8:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 24
Location: 22.1°N 82.8°W
Moving: WNW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

I can’t remember another storm that only gets stronger on land.

Maybe it's a little bit of the brown ocean effect? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brown_ocean_effect#:~:text=The%20brown%20ocean%20effect%20is,even%20intensify%20over%20land%20surfaces.

Caused when these models keep skirting Houston to the east.

[artist]

I can’t remember another storm that only gets stronger on land.

Fay 2008?

She was the weirdest storm ever!

According to one study of storms from 1979 to 2008, 20% increased in strength over land-
According to Shepherd, 227 of the 3,254 storms from 1979 to 2008 met the criteria for landfalling tropical systems globally. Of those 227, 182 storms weakened after moving over land, but 45 maintained or increased in strength. Those 45 storms – roughly 20 percent of all landfalling storms in the study – became the subject of the team's investigation.
... Tropical Storm Erin was one of those such storms in 2007. As it moved over moisture-rich Oklahoma, Erin picked up steam, forming an eye-like feature over the Plains.

"Erin's remnant in 2007 is forever burned in my mind," said weather.com senior meteorologist Jon Erdman. "I had never seen a tropical cyclone remnant that far inland behave like that."

During Erin, Watonga, Oklahoma, recorded more than three consecutive hours of high winds, with a peak gust to 82 mph, during the overnight hours of Aug. 19, 2007, Erdman said.
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... d-20130718
Let’s hope Laura doesn’t like that,

[TheHurricaneGod]

Center racing across Cuba and should be over the GoM in a few hours. As soon as she enters the gulf it's off to the races

[aspen]

We may see a formative eye structure on satellite as early as tomorrow morning.

I think we’re already seeing one now. Some of the new hot towers are wrapping around the CoC over Cuba identified by both recon passes.

[tolakram]

NOAA, flying at higher altitude, traversed the center overland.

[SoupBone]

If that is the true center, is that enough of a jump to cause the models to have to adjust the track?

[Highteeld]

65 mph seems good

[Aric Dunn]

Seeing a jump to the north coast is a distinct possibility as that convective burst moves over water.

[catskillfire51]

NOAA, flying at higher altitude, traversed the center overland.

https://i.imgur.com/mPiVlN6.png

I think they went higher because the AF plane was in there too

[tolakram]

If that is the true center, is that enough of a jump to cause the models to have to adjust the track?

Not in my opinion, seems right on track.

[supercane4867]

If that is the true center, is that enough of a jump to cause the models to have to adjust the track?

Most likely just your typical stair stepping for a NW moving storm.

[Kingarabian]

Center racing across Cuba and should be over the GoM in a few hours. As soon as she enters the gulf it's off to the races

Well if this happens then the models are STILL playing catch up with Laura. They don't have it over waters until another 9-12 hours from now.

[Steve]

So 18z HWRF comes in on the Texas LA border 929mb. Is that area heavily populated?

400k in the Triangle, 225k in Lake Charles. (Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, Lake Charles/Sulphur are the main cities).

[NDG]

LLC looks to be over land based on radar
https://i.imgur.com/TC4qydF.png

And it took a nice jog W if not WSW.