ATL: LAURA - Models

[Kingarabian]

Nvm you're right. Looks like it's hooking.

Looks like it's closer to the UKMET than the HWRF/GFS. Landfall is west of the border:
https://i.imgur.com/ZLpkH0h.png

Too close to comfort for Houston.

What did the 18z Ukmet do?

I don't have access to the 18z UKMET. I think very few do. I'm not sure it even exists.

[Highteeld]

Holy crap, 18z euro w/ 938 mb. Gotta be the lowest pressure I’ve seen for a Euro run

That’s exceptionally deep for the Euro. The deepest I remember was around 900 mbar for Hagibis and Kammuri (although the latter was a bust).

898.4 for Hagibis I think. Probably was too conservative by 20 mb or so. That was the strongest storm I have ever tracked.

[shiny-pebble]

Wow unreal for the Euro... Because of the Euro's resolution it could translate to about 920, right?

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[SoupBone]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1298049398933520384?s=20

I like Ryan and follow his tweets, but why also not talk about the last 4 GFS runs?

[snoop9928]

yeah thats enough for me to hit the road first thing tomorrow morning and get out of houston. too close for my blood. Beach house on bolivar is likely toast

[jasons2k]

All the operational runs are still to the east of the Houston metro area, but I believe each one of the individual models shifted west from its respective 12Z run.

[SoupBone]

All the operational runs are still to the east of the Houston metro area, but I believe each one of the individual models shifted west from its respective 12Z run.

Yeah, it's threading a needle. I'm gonna definitely stay up for the Euro tonight.

[dantonlsu]

yeah thats enough for me to hit the road first thing tomorrow morning and get out of houston. too close for my blood. Beach house on bolivar is likely toast

This is my concern, if Houston does wake up with a potential monster in our sights, evacuations could mimic Rita.

[eastcoastFL]

yeah thats enough for me to hit the road first thing tomorrow morning and get out of houston. too close for my blood. Beach house on bolivar is likely toast

Good idea

[FixySLN]

Western shift begins its 12 hour rotation while the eastern shift grabs some shuteye.

[supercane4867]

Wow unreal for the Euro... Because of the Euro's resolution it could translate to about 920, right?

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Definitely the strongest run by euro yet. Very solid CAT4-5 hurricane.

[LSU Saint]

In Houston and still have work tomorrow. If this hits here and there are evacuations, it’s going to be total chaos.

[AxaltaRacing24]

that is one of the lowest pressures i have ever seen from the euro in this basin in my 4 years here.

[Horn1991]

In Houston and still have work tomorrow. If this hits here and there are evacuations, it’s going to be total chaos.

Same here.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

I may be wrong, but I believe Wilma was in the 880's

[Stormcenter]

I just recall how they said the same thing about
Katrina in N.O. and well we know what happened. You
just never say never in the tropics especially since
it hasn’t even entered the Gulf yet.

1am Thursday morning. So 2 days to for people to get their **** together.

Are you starting to get as nervous as I am, this is starting to look like a historical event.

Not so much here. I mean, I'm nervous for you guys and everyone who lives in SW LA and SE TX. New Orleans should be fine. We lucked out without any issues from Marco, and it appears we'll be okay with Laura. But the way the models are looking, thousands of people will have damaged, flooded or destroyed homes. And everyone knows down in that corridor, there are many, many people who live in RV's and mobile homes. I hope everyone protects what matters to them.

I know it's the models thread, but I'll yell this because I watched our family's history drip from celluloid to rot at my dad's. Protect your photos and videos. Anything you don't have stored on the web can be lost for good with water damage. Negatives as well. Put them all in ziplock bags or water-proof bins. Trust me.

[Nederlander]

This would be really bad surge for Sabine Lake and the Neches River. Bridge City and Orange are not protected by a levee system. This area was devastated by Ike.

[Kazmit]

NHC has got to increase their peak intensity from 105 mph. That Euro run was the final straw.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Holy crap, 18z euro w/ 938 mb. Gotta be the lowest pressure I’ve seen for a Euro run

That’s exceptionally deep for the Euro. The deepest I remember was around 900 mbar for Hagibis and Kammuri (also the latter was a bust).

Lowest pressure for an Atlantic system

I saw the Euro go down to like 910mb for Julia in 2010. 10 years ago, but still...

[AxaltaRacing24]

NHC has got to increase their peak intensity from 105 mph. That Euro run was the final straw.

yep. this is a dangerous situation, and leaving it at "only" 105 needs to end at 11pm in my opinion. time to put the M on the map.