ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

400k in the Triangle, 225k in Lake Charles. (Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, Lake Charles/Sulphur are the main cities).

Would you say its a fairly low lying area? Do they have construction code in LA like here in S.Fl where they build homes with cement block mostly?

Most of the homes south of Lake Charles that survived Ike and Rita, are not made of cement, I think there isn't that many made of cement, the building codes were not updated like in Florida after Andrew. So the only code that was updated was the elevation of the homes, all homes south of Intracoastal Waterway are either on stilts or built up mounds of earth. A lot of insurance companies will not even insure homes south of Hwy 90.

Makes sense. There's plenty of old wooden homes down here that have survived. Nothing is going to stop water so stilts is the best bet. During Michael even some block home got demolished. Once that roof peels off its over. I think at a certain point like Michael there's just not much that survives. I remember that Mexico Beach photo where everything is gone but 1 house and the guy said he triple reinforced everything to withstand the big one.

[ConvergenceZone]

I have a feeling we will see the dreaded “M” on the forecast map by sometime tomorrow morning

[Kingarabian]

Just an FYI to those who still don't believe: The argument that Laura will have a disrupted core and will be very disorganized coming off of Cuba is evaporating. Laura is about to emerge into the GOM stronger than previously though with a core that's organizing.

[Frank P]

using these two long range radars it appears the NW edge of the center is just about to reach the GOM..

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes

[Kingarabian]

I have a feeling we will see the dreaded “M” on the forecast map by sometime tomorrow morning

They should have it in there within the next 2 hours IMO.

[Aric Dunn]

The NOAA plane should start flying along the north coast.. center jump is looking like a possibility.

[galaxy401]

Looks pretty good for a storm that went through "the shredder".

[johngaltfla]

IMHO, we're going to have a solid, strengthening Cat 1 hurricane by the 5 a.m. update, if not earlier. Very unnerving for those of us who remember Sir Charles. Hopefully something impedes its development as it moves into the Central GoM but I don't see it now.

[BYG Jacob]

https://imgur.com/F1hDiNA

Just developing an eyewall over Cuba, no biggie

Taking a stab in the dark here, but it would seem laura's eye made landfall just west of the highest terrain over western Cuba. This to me seems like it would add a frictional component that could tighten the circulation from the east side of the eyewall. it looks tighter on radar, which could mean less time needed to spin up over the gulf. gahhh, i don't know

It would certainly appear so given the explosive convective burst on the eastern part of the wall

[supercane4867]

New hot towers developing to the south of the center overland...

[Sanibel]

That's a nasty looking, muscular customer for just a TS...

A bull entering the ring...

[Highteeld]

This is really bad.

[Steve]

So 18z HWRF comes in on the Texas LA border 929mb. Is that area heavily populated?

400k in the Triangle, 225k in Lake Charles. (Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, Lake Charles/Sulphur are the main cities).

Would you say its a fairly low lying area? Do they have construction code in LA like here in S.Fl where they build homes with cement block mostly?

Yeah, particularly Cameron Parish. Not everywhere else is like in SELA, there are higher spots. But there are canals and rivers and bayous and streams and lakes all over that whole area.

[eastcoastFL]

I have a feeling we will see the dreaded “M” on the forecast map by sometime tomorrow morning

I agree. Its just a matter of time as to when they do it. Could be at 11pm. It wouldn't be a big jump if they go to 115mph.

[MGC]

Looks like Laura is out over the GOM. IF the HRWF is going to verify it should start to deepen soon....MGC

[Hurrilurker]

Will not be surprised to see a Cat-2 around mid-day tomorrow. Looking really good and it's not even over open water yet.

[Keldeo1997]

https://youtu.be/9PlkhWYAxtE?t=472

Levi does mention here that there will be a window sometime close to landfall where the Mid level Shear will be very light due to the Northly shear becoming Westerly as it starts interacting the the Trough. So that could be a window for another round of RI

[Ken711]

Levi Cowan's report this evening.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PlkhWYAxtE

[eastcoastFL]

400k in the Triangle, 225k in Lake Charles. (Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, Lake Charles/Sulphur are the main cities).

Would you say its a fairly low lying area? Do they have construction code in LA like here in S.Fl where they build homes with cement block mostly?

Yeah, particularly Cameron Parish. Not everywhere else is like in SELA, there are higher spots. But there are canals and rivers and bayous and streams and lakes all over that whole area.

I really hope it maintains this 20mph motion so the flooding isn't even worse inland.

[Highteeld]

i really wonder if missing (just barely and highlighted) the tallest mountains to the west increased low level convergence, hence the development over land. There is also some upsloping going on, which aids in convection.