ATL: LAURA - Models

[emings]

This would be really bad surge for Sabine Lake and the Neches River. Bridge City and Orange are not protected by a levee system. This area was devastated by Ike.

Same with Rita it looked like a warzone there after Rita

[gqhebert]

NHC has got to increase their peak intensity from 105 mph. That Euro run was the final straw.

They will not budge until they see how Laura looks in the gulf...

[p1nheadlarry]

Yet another 925-930 mbar HWRF run into the TX/LA border region. This run gives Laura just a little more than 48 hours over open water before landfall.

1am Thursday morning. So 2 days to for people to get their **** together.

Very much like Michael. And what went really wrong, is that the model runs that were very bullish on Michael weren't strong enough!

Not saying this is the case by any means but just food for thought.

[dantonlsu]

Should get the ensembles shortly..

[PavelGaborik10]

NHC has got to increase their peak intensity from 105 mph. That Euro run was the final straw.

They will not budge until they see how Laura looks in the gulf...

Unfortunately it may be too late by then.

[Steve]

I just recall how they said the same thing about
Katrina in N.O. and well we know what happened. You
just never say never in the tropics especially since
it hasn’t even entered the Gulf yet.

Are you starting to get as nervous as I am, this is starting to look like a historical event.

Not so much here. I mean, I'm nervous for you guys and everyone who lives in SW LA and SE TX. New Orleans should be fine. We lucked out without any issues from Marco, and it appears we'll be okay with Laura. But the way the models are looking, thousands of people will have damaged, flooded or destroyed homes. And everyone knows down in that corridor, there are many, many people who live in RV's and mobile homes. I hope everyone protects what matters to them.

I know it's the models thread, but I'll yell this because I watched our family's history drip from celluloid to rot at my dad's. Protect your photos and videos. Anything you don't have stored on the web can be lost for good with water damage. Negatives as well. Put them all in ziplock bags or water-proof bins. Trust me.

Yeah, I didn't say that though I knew Friday afternoon what was up when the SW dive took place. It was on. But it was supposed to hit east of here, not west. And I feel like from most of the models, Laura will pass 90W somewhere between 25.5-27.5. I'm ready if necessary, but I'm not worried for my area at this time.

[Ken711]

Ensembles with a large number in TX.


https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

[Hurricane Mike]

I love the NHC and I usually don't dispute them, but I'm shocked at the lack of consideration for a Texas landfall. EURO, ensembles, UKMET, multiple models have a Texas landfall. Plus Laura has consistently moved much further south and west throughout the last few days. But we shall see.

[Blinhart]

I love the NHC and I usually don't dispute them, but I'm shocked at the lack of consideration for a Texas landfall. EURO, ensembles, UKMET, multiple models have a Texas landfall. Plus Laura has consistently moved much further south and west throughout the last few days. But we shall see.

Most operational models go to the Tx/La state line or just East of there, yes there is a lot of ensembles that go to the West, but the operational's don't.

[dantonlsu]

Still waiting for the Euro Ensembles

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1298062673389801473

[supercane4867]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1298062791014850560

[dantonlsu]

Now what does the NHC do...

[PTrackerLA]

Can't discount the threat to Houston given the latest ensembles but Laura is clearly tracking on the northern side of the guidance envelope at this time.

[SunnyThoughts]

Now what does the NHC do...

I bet there is some serious decisions being made at this very moment as to when to put that M on the map...and where to put the cone...as well as where to put up watches.

[SoupBone]

I don't understand the Euro love from these guys lately. They are completely dismissing the GFS and others? I get how bad it would be and it could definitely be right but it just seems one sided. Last night they were championing the UKMET, then went radio silent when it showed SWLA again.

[BigB0882]

Now what does the NHC do...

I bet they don’t do a thing with location unless they nudge it right to the border. No one made any major swings. People want to act like the difference between a TX landfall and a LA landfall mean everything when it’s literally the width of a small river. I wouldn’t be surprised if they upgrade the intensity, though.

[Haris]

I don't understand the Euro love from these guys lately. They are completely dismissing the GFS and others? I get how bad it would be and it could definitely be right but it just seems one sided. Last night they were championing the UKMET, then went radio silent when it showed SWLA again.

No one is loving anything. They’re just favoring it more because of Laura’s history so far.

[jlauderdal]

Now what does the NHC do...

I bet there is some serious decisions being made at this very moment as to when to put that M on the map...and where to put the cone...as well as where to put up watches.

The cone is easy, nothing more than statistics. Intensity forecasting is far more difficult. All systems go for a 3/4...this has been in the cards for several days.

[Steve]

I love the NHC and I usually don't dispute them, but I'm shocked at the lack of consideration for a Texas landfall. EURO, ensembles, UKMET, multiple models have a Texas landfall. Plus Laura has consistently moved much further south and west throughout the last few days. But we shall see.

Watches are up.