ATL: LAURA - Models

[PTrackerLA]

18z GFS para ensembles

[superfly]

I don't understand the Euro love from these guys lately. They are completely dismissing the GFS and others? I get how bad it would be and it could definitely be right but it just seems one sided. Last night they were championing the UKMET, then went radio silent when it showed SWLA again.

They desperately want to make a Galveston/Houston hit happen. Clearly.

[Nederlander]

Now what does the NHC do...

I bet they don’t do a thing with location unless they nudge it right to the border. No one made any major swings. People want to act like the difference between a TX landfall and a LA landfall mean everything when it’s literally the width of a small river. I wouldn’t be surprised if they upgrade the intensity, though.

It makes a huge difference for places along the Sabine and Neches River. Winds from the SE would cause significant surge flood, whereas a NE wind would not. Makes it very difficult for EM officials on calling for evacs when they continually say Cat 2 in SWLA.

[Ken711]

Now what does the NHC do...

I bet they don’t do a thing with location unless they nudge it right to the border. No one made any major swings. People want to act like the difference between a TX landfall and a LA landfall mean everything when it’s literally the width of a small river. I wouldn’t be surprised if they upgrade the intensity, though.

I agree.

[jlauderdal]

I love the NHC and I usually don't dispute them, but I'm shocked at the lack of consideration for a Texas landfall. EURO, ensembles, UKMET, multiple models have a Texas landfall. Plus Laura has consistently moved much further south and west throughout the last few days. But we shall see.

They rarely make big changes..they also dont just follow the models. If you are in the cone, prepare for landfall and statistically there is 33% chance landfall is outside the cone.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1298062673389801473

[Highteeld]

[tolakram]

I know some of you know how to read model runs, and I know some of you could care less, but stop the second guessing as if you're expecting to know exactly where Laura is going to go. It hasn't happened since I joined this forum and I don't expect it will any time soon. I just don't understand the reasoning of moving the track if the data doesn't support it, and obviously it does not or they would. If you are in the cone you are under a hurricane watch. Take it seriously.

[BigB0882]

GFS ensembles seem more evenly divided. Not sure if that means I should trust it more or not. The Euro ensembles are heavily favoring the west. Also of note is the GFS ensembles have some very strong storms coming in to SC and SE Louisiana. I normally favor the Euro but it just hasn’t been on point for this storm. Maybe it will prove me wrong. But it’s operational is not far off from the others.

[cheezyWXguy]

I don't understand the Euro love from these guys lately. They are completely dismissing the GFS and others? I get how bad it would be and it could definitely be right but it just seems one sided. Last night they were championing the UKMET, then went radio silent when it showed SWLA again.

They desperately want to make a Galveston/Houston hit happen. Clearly.

It’s not that. I did my fair share of mocking the euro from dropping Laura’s formation. If you see acknowledging a reasonable possibility, as highlighted by the euro, ukmet, and a large number of ensemble members from both the gfs and euro, as “desperate” you are not looking at the full picture. No one wants this to go anywhere, but all possibilities have to be acknowledged on a probabilistic basis because this is a very high impact scenario.

[Blow_Hard]

I know some of you know how to read model runs, and I know some of you could care less, but stop the second guessing as if you're expecting to know exactly where Laura is going to go. It hasn't happened since I joined this forum and I don't expect it will any time soon. I just don't understand the reasoning of moving the track if the data doesn't support it, and obviously it does not or they would. If you are in the cone you are under a hurricane watch. Take it seriously.

^This, plus they have so many more resources at their disposal. I can't think of one time the NHC bungled their forecast to the point that it cost people their lives and livelihood. I'll tell you what will cause that...making no preps and using good common sense to make rational, prudent decisions. Like Mark said, if you are in the Cone be very vigilant and rush your preps to completion. If you are simply near the Cone, be prepared for impacts.

[jlauderdal]

I know some of you know how to read model runs, and I know some of you could care less, but stop the second guessing as if you're expecting to know exactly where Laura is going to go. It hasn't happened since I joined this forum and I don't expect it will any time soon. I just don't understand the reasoning of moving the track if the data doesn't support it, and obviously it does not or they would. If you are in the cone you are under a hurricane watch. Take it seriously.

Folks, if you have any doubt about what to do, only read the last two sentences of tolakram's post.

NHC doesnt miss by much at this range these days. 100 miles or less on either side of that line is getting a 3 or 4, at least.

[Steve]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1298062673389801473

For all the unfortunate bluster those guys put out at times, this is a really weak tweet by him and ambiguous as it gets. "50-100 miles around Houston" doesn't really say anything. Houston doesn't come to the coast. It's 50-60 miles to Galveston. 110 miles to Port Arthur. On the one hand should I not really care if I'm in Port Arthur or Vidor or Orange or Vinton? It also gives him an out to say he'd be on high alert. If he thinks it's going to hit somewhere along the SE TX Coast, he should have come out and said it. I don't mean to sound like I'm ranting, but I got a "what?" when I read that.

[dukeblue219]

I may be wrong, but I believe Wilma was in the 880's

The Euro has a certain modeling resolution, so it will never give you the precise lowest center of pressure in the core of a hurricane. It'll give you the lowest pressure at whatever point is modeled nearest the center. It's common to see a major hurricane with a 940mb pressure show up on the Euro at something like 965mb just because of how it's modeled. So the question raised was whether anyone has seen the Euro spit out a lower pressure. There have certainly been many Atlantic storms well below 938mb in reality.

[Highteeld]

[sphelps8681]

Beaumont Judge Branick just announced mandatory evacuation for Jefferson county in Texas effective 6:30am in the morning.

[Hammy]

I may be wrong, but I believe Wilma was in the 880's

The Euro has a certain modeling resolution, so it will never give you the precise lowest center of pressure in the core of a hurricane. It'll give you the lowest pressure at whatever point is modeled nearest the center. It's common to see a major hurricane with a 940mb pressure show up on the Euro at something like 965mb just because of how it's modeled. So the question raised was whether anyone has seen the Euro spit out a lower pressure. There have certainly been many Atlantic storms well below 938mb in reality.

Is that essentially the grid size and why the model also does poorly with smaller systems?

[Highteeld]

I may be wrong, but I believe Wilma was in the 880's

The Euro has a certain modeling resolution, so it will never give you the precise lowest center of pressure in the core of a hurricane. It'll give you the lowest pressure at whatever point is modeled nearest the center. It's common to see a major hurricane with a 940mb pressure show up on the Euro at something like 965mb just because of how it's modeled. So the question raised was whether anyone has seen the Euro spit out a lower pressure. There have certainly been many Atlantic storms well below 938mb in reality.

The euro spat out about 915-920 mb for Irma and 898 mb for Hagabis. That is about as low as i've seen it go for the Atlantic and wpac respectively

[jasons2k]

I don't understand the Euro love from these guys lately. They are completely dismissing the GFS and others? I get how bad it would be and it could definitely be right but it just seems one sided. Last night they were championing the UKMET, then went radio silent when it showed SWLA again.

One reason: look at the strength of the ridge forecasted on yesterday the on GFS versus its verification today.

This may be a classic case of of the GFS underestimating the strength of the ridge. Just a tad can shift the tracks tens of miles. Tens of miles makes a big difference right now. Especially if it occurs over several model runs.

Don't forget folks - the operational "consensus" is much closer to Sabine Pass/Lake Charles, but each individual model shifted west from it's 12z position. If that happens 2,3,4 more times before 'locking in' - that could add up by the time landfall occurs.

[Steve]

One of the biggest model nights of the year is upon us. NAM 12km is running now and out to 28 hours. FWIW it’s pretty far south in the Gulf.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2500&fh=28