ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

I am still in shock how much they are flying over land in Cuba.

AF looked like it was about to cross over towards the direction of the center they changed course maybe because NOAA was crossing in front of them.

[Nimbus]

To me that LLC inland will die off and a new will reform closer to the MLC now coming offshore. IMO.

The plane is up at 24N sampling 50 knot winds but next pass they will probably be off the north coast a little west of where that curl can be seen on radar.

[aspen]

Levi mentions a couple of possible speed bumps for Laura while going through the Gulf. First is a small patch of lower OHC, but that isn’t expected to be much of an issue (It’ll pass through the smallest section of it). Second is a bit of mid-level shear, but once again, he doesn’t expect it’ll be too much to completely stop Laura, although it could keep it from reaching maximum possible intensity. He also mentions how, close to landfall, mid-level shear will drop before shooting up as Laura nears a trough, and it could peak closer to the coast during that brief window.

[Hurricaneman]

To me that LLC inland will die off and a new will reform closer to the MLC now coming offshore. IMO.

This system is in the GOM on satellite and radar, we’re going to se a marked improvement in presentation the next hour or 2 I would think

[Hypercane_Kyle]

WRT upwelling from Marco, as discussed by Levi:

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1298067731774869511

[LSU Saint]

Houston to Lake Charles needs to be prepared for a cat 4 or cat 5 hurricane. this is really, really getting desperate

Yeah this is looking like one of those storms. If I lived anywhere along those areas I'd be gone today

Houston is screwed if this turns into us. They haven’t had anyone evacuate yet, just a voluntary for Galveston

Everyone is here still. Everyone will go to work tomorrow and potentially have to rush home and pack their belongings. The traffic is going to be a nightmare

[hipshot]

For those interested in seeing what cat 4/5 winds look like...skip ahead to about 42 minutes into this video. Michael

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3rHVCu_1ag

That is pretty friggin scary. Never been there and don't want to be ,,,,wow!!!

[MBryant]

https://twitter.com/dejoniquetv/status/1298071373605220352

Well that means Orange County will follow as usual. A large pert of Jefferson County was already due to evacuate since it includes Port Arthur.

The traffic is going to be horrible. I don't know if I'll check in again or not. Tyler Bound.

[tropicwatch]

The Keys are getting 34kts and gusts to 42, plus waves almost 12ft.

[Steve]

I'd love to have some of what you guys are having. It hasn't even crossed the southern border of Cuba yet, recon is flying between main island of Cuba and the Isle of Youth right now...

I got you. But since you’re superfly, maybe you got me.

[Blow_Hard]

For those interested in seeing what cat 4/5 winds look like...skip ahead to about 42 minutes into this video. Michael

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3rHVCu_1ag

That is pretty friggin scary. Never been there and don't want to be ,,,,wow!!!

tho
We were not in the NE eyewall but we were in the NW eyewall for 2 hours. I thought it was going to be kind of cool to ride it out and watch mother nature do her thing. I've been through every Hurricane and TS that has hit Panama City since 1974 and it was the most scared I've been since I was a child. The house little shook the whole time and we were expecting to lose the entire roof at any time. The worse thing about it is the aftermath, the complete and utter devastation and seeing a place where you have lived for 40 years be demolished and be forever changed. I honestly get an ill feeling looking at those HWRF simulations and I truly hope and pray this thing doesn't bring that kind of destruction and pain wherever it land falls.

[MONTEGUT_LA]

For those interested in seeing what cat 4/5 winds look like...skip ahead to about 42 minutes into this video. Michael

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3rHVCu_1ag

Thank you for posting. My kids keep saying we should stay home. I say mini-vacation never hurt anyone

[FLpanhandle91]

Looks like the LLC is around 20 to 30 miles southwest of the MLC everyone is seeing on radar and IR. You can see it pretty clearly on the shortwave window. So while not perfectly stacked now, the hot towers firing in the MLC as we speak will undoubtedly pull the LLC under it fairly quickly. This will happen over the next few hours and after that, it should attain hurricane status pretty quickly.

Regarding OHC: I am not sure this system will be moving slow enough for OHC to mater. I believe high raw SST's will be more than enough to facilitate intensification for the remainder of Laura's time over water (with the exception of EWRCs).

[pcolaman]

To all that are in the path of this storm, I wish you all the best of luck with your family and your property. Living with the experience of a Cat 4 and surviving it and having to deal with the loss of my home and the month without power and scrounging to find water , food , and gas just to live. My thoughts and prayers go out to all of you and be safe and leave when asked to by your local governments.

[St0rmTh0r]

Yeah this is looking like one of those storms. If I lived anywhere along those areas I'd be gone today

Houston is screwed if this turns into us. They haven’t had anyone evacuate yet, just a voluntary for Galveston

Everyone is here still. Everyone will go to work tomorrow and potentially have to rush home and pack their belongings. The traffic is going to be a nightmare

That sounds like a nightmare! Not much more time to prepare

[Rail Dawg]

Guys and gals I went through the 185mph gusts of Michael. This is not a boast. This is me telling all of you that video in NO WAY captures just how powerful that wind is.

I was standing literally 20 feet from those winds hunkered down in a parking lot garage. Completely safe and not fearful at all. But holy cow you can NOT believe how devastating that wind is up close and personal.

I will share a story I have posted here before... a couple years ago. Again I have chased 14 hurricanes but it was during Irma (145 mph gusts) and Michael (185 mph gusts) that I discovered a phenomenon that answered a question I had for three decades. Why does one house get smashed but the house next to it survive relatively intact?

At the height of the hurricane you will hear what sounds like an F-18 fighter jet screaming above you at 1000 feet. Count about 10 seconds and suddenly what I call the "Fist of God" lowers out of the sky. It is about the size of a house and it contains more water than anything else around it. This Fist of God is your 185 mph gust. It is incredible to watch because it lowers to the ground and smashes to pieces anything in front of it. Brick buildings. Houses. 300-year-old oak trees. That is why one house gets smashed and the next one does not.

If you watch a video of Michael turn your volume up to max blast. Turn the bass all the way up. And then listen. You will get the first inkling just how powerful these winds can get. I'm telling you straight up it is unbelievable standing next to that power. It is as close as you can get to a tornado and live to tell the story.

Thanks for listening. This stuff fascinates me. People who say they are going to ride out a Cat 4 in a wooden home have no idea the terror they will be facing.

[ConvergenceZone]

For a potentially dangerous storm like Laura, how often does recon usually sample data from a storm once it gets in the GOM?

[ConvergenceZone]

Guys and gals I went through the 185mph gusts of Michael. This is not a boast. This is me telling all of you that video in NO WAY captures just how powerful that wind is.

I was standing literally 20 feet from those winds hunkered down in a parking lot garage. Completely safe and not fearful at all. But holy cow you can NOT believe how devastating that wind is up close and personal.

I will share a story I have posted here before... a couple years ago. Again I have chased 14 hurricanes but it was during Irma (145 mph gusts) and Michael (185 mph gusts) that I discovered a phenomenon that answered a question I had for three decades. Why does one house get smashed but the house next to it survive relatively intact?

At the height of the hurricane you will hear what sounds like an F-18 fighter jet screaming above you at 1000 feet. Count about 10 seconds and suddenly what I call the "Fist of God" lowers out of the sky. It is about the size of a house and it contains more water than anything else around it. This Fist of God is your 185 mph gust. It is incredible to watch because it lowers to the ground and smashes to pieces anything in front of it. Brick buildings. Houses. 300-year-old oak trees. That is why one house gets smashed and the next one does not.

If you watch a video of Michael turn your volume up to max blast. Turn the bass all the way up. And then listen. You will get the first inkling just how powerful these winds can get. I'm telling you straight up it is unbelievable standing next to that power. It is as close as you can get to a tornado and live to tell the story.

Thanks for listening. This stuff fascinates me. People who say they are going to ride out a Cat 4 in a wooden home have no idea the terror they will be facing.

Wow! Intense information, thanks for sharing. Scary stuff for sure

[tolakram]

For a potentially dangerous storm like Laura, how often does recon usually sample data from a storm once it gets in the GOM?

Every 3 hours typically.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

000
NOUS42 KNHC 241802
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0200 PM EDT MON 24 AUGUST 2020
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z AUGUST 2020
TCPOD NUMBER.....20-090

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM LAURA
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 74
A. 26/0000Z A. 25/2330Z,26/0530Z
B. NOAA9 1813A LAURA B. AFXXX 1913A LAURA
C. 25/1730Z C. 25/2030Z
D. NA D. 25.1N 88.7W
E. NA E. 25/2300Z TO 26/0530Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 43 FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 75
A. 26/0000Z A. 26/0830Z,1130Z,1430Z
B. NOAA3 2013A LAURA B. AFXXX 2113A LAURA
C. 25/2100Z C. 26/0530Z
D. 25.2N 88.8W D. 26.5N 90.5W
E. 25/2200Z TO 26/0400Z E. 26/0800Z TO 26/1430Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE - NOAA 42
A. 26/1200Z
B. NOAA2 2213A LAURA
C. 26/0900Z
D. 26.8N 91.1W
E. 26/1000Z TO 26/1600Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 3-HRLY FIXES WHILE LAURA REMAINS A THREAT.
B. AN ADDITIONAL NOAA P-3 TDR MISSION INTO LAURA, DEPARTING
KLAL AT 26/2100Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

NNNN

[cfisher]

There might be a battle going on between the meso to the north of Cuba and the one to the south. The convection is stronger in the south meso, so I would learn toward that one becoming the dominant feature.