ATL: LAURA - Models
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
jaguars_22 wrote:I smell Texas on Nam
Are we really going to follow the NAM hour by hour? Lol
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
BigB0882 wrote:jaguars_22 wrote:I smell Texas on Nam
Are we really going to follow the NAM hour by hour? Lol
Yes. For the laughs!
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
BigB0882 wrote:jaguars_22 wrote:I smell Texas on Nam
Are we really going to follow the NAM hour by hour? Lol
We don’t have anything else til ICON and I don’t feel like going to ucar and posting the late cycle 18z and early cycle 00z. Maybe I will.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
Here you go BO882. Not that unreasonable I don't think?

I gotta peak at 3km for fun though. lm*ao. It drops to 905mb in 35 hours. That's like *edit my math sucked* several mb an hour. It's gotta get to the 870's by landfall! Go NAM!


I gotta peak at 3km for fun though. lm*ao. It drops to 905mb in 35 hours. That's like *edit my math sucked* several mb an hour. It's gotta get to the 870's by landfall! Go NAM!

Last edited by Steve on Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
What is the late cycle EPS?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
SoupBone wrote:What is the late cycle EPS?
18z.
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
Again, entertainment purposes only, but the 12km NAM has shifted west into Texas, just a bit east of the bay.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
Steve wrote:Late cycle
https://i.imgur.com/n8PYhab.png
Early cycle guidance
https://i.imgur.com/Z27Bzsf.png
Late cycle EPS
https://i.imgur.com/c9BCmz4.png
not a good starting point. The llc is to the north of Cuba.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
pcolaman wrote:Steve wrote:Late cycle
https://i.imgur.com/n8PYhab.png
Early cycle guidance
https://i.imgur.com/Z27Bzsf.png
Late cycle EPS
https://i.imgur.com/c9BCmz4.png
not a good starting point. The llc is to the north of Cuba.
Is that a fact? I’m not sure it is.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
BigB0882 wrote:pcolaman wrote:Steve wrote:Late cycle
https://i.imgur.com/n8PYhab.png
Early cycle guidance
https://i.imgur.com/Z27Bzsf.png
Late cycle EPS
https://i.imgur.com/c9BCmz4.png
not a good starting point. The llc is to the north of Cuba.
Is that a fact? I’m not sure it is.
NDG posted on page 188 according to recon.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
BigB0882 wrote:pcolaman wrote:Steve wrote:Late cycle
https://i.imgur.com/n8PYhab.png
Early cycle guidance
https://i.imgur.com/Z27Bzsf.png
Late cycle EPS
https://i.imgur.com/c9BCmz4.png
not a good starting point. The llc is to the north of Cuba.
Is that a fact? I’m not sure it is.
Recon found a windshift at the surface with that MLC on the north side. Center is likely either in the process of relocating or the north center is attempting to compete with the south center.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
pcolaman wrote:Steve wrote:Late cycle
https://i.imgur.com/n8PYhab.png
Early cycle guidance
https://i.imgur.com/Z27Bzsf.png
Late cycle EPS
https://i.imgur.com/c9BCmz4.png
not a good starting point. The llc is to the north of Cuba.
No it's not. Current position is still well inland based off recon, so init position for 0z should be south of Cuba.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
What would that mean for all these model runs? Do we need to wait yet again for runs with the new center? I guess this has always been the case, people have said over and over to wait until it gets into the Gulf.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
SoupBone wrote:What is the late cycle EPS?
See boulder’s post. They re-run ensembles with later data input. They do an experimental track as well. Lots of pros caution against relying on it. But early cycle 18z (or late cycle 12z) tipped me off to Katrina. NHC does giant shift in the forecast track at 4, and obviously all hell breaks loose for the next couple of months. So to me it has some value.
Here’s the primer when you have time.
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/guide/early/
And here’s the link to the output maps. Click the storm and you have big access.
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/current/
And a killer addendum
https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/
Last edited by Steve on Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
pcolaman wrote:Steve wrote:Late cycle
https://i.imgur.com/n8PYhab.png
Early cycle guidance
https://i.imgur.com/Z27Bzsf.png
Late cycle EPS
https://i.imgur.com/c9BCmz4.png
not a good starting point. The llc is to the north of Cuba.
That's about where recon fixed it on the first pass.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
Steve wrote:SoupBone wrote:What is the late cycle EPS?
Ucar - somebody correct me if I’m wrong - is like a consortium of dozens of colleges and universities in North Carolina. They re-run ensembles with later data input. They do an experimental track as well. Lots of pros caution against relying on it. But early cycle 18z (or late cycle 12z) tipped me off to Katrina. NHC does giant shift in the forecast track at 4, and obviously all hell breaks loose for the next couple of months. So to me it has some value.
Here’s the primer when you have time.
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/guide/early/
And here’s the link to the output maps. Click the storm and you have big access.
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/current/
And a killer addendum
https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/
UCAR is the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research based out of Boulder, CO. They work closely with NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research), which is also based out of Boulder. They are housed in a sweet office up near the Flatirons designed by I.M. Pei.
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