ATL: LAURA - Models

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jaguars_22
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3481 Postby jaguars_22 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:06 pm

I smell Texas on Nam
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3482 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:13 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:I smell Texas on Nam


Are we really going to follow the NAM hour by hour? Lol
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3483 Postby Fancy1001 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:14 pm

BigB0882 wrote:
jaguars_22 wrote:I smell Texas on Nam


Are we really going to follow the NAM hour by hour? Lol

Yes. For the laughs!
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3484 Postby jaguars_22 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:14 pm

Lol just for practice
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3485 Postby Steve » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:15 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:I smell Texas on Nam


It’s going to be close.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3486 Postby Steve » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:16 pm

BigB0882 wrote:
jaguars_22 wrote:I smell Texas on Nam


Are we really going to follow the NAM hour by hour? Lol


We don’t have anything else til ICON and I don’t feel like going to ucar and posting the late cycle 18z and early cycle 00z. Maybe I will.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3487 Postby Steve » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:22 pm

Late cycle
Image

Early cycle guidance
Image

Late cycle EPS
Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3488 Postby Steve » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:25 pm

Here you go BO882. Not that unreasonable I don't think?
Image

I gotta peak at 3km for fun though. lm*ao. It drops to 905mb in 35 hours. That's like *edit my math sucked* several mb an hour. It's gotta get to the 870's by landfall! Go NAM!
Image
Last edited by Steve on Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3489 Postby SoupBone » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:25 pm

What is the late cycle EPS?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3490 Postby Haris » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:31 pm

SoupBone wrote:What is the late cycle EPS?


18z.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3491 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:33 pm

Again, entertainment purposes only, but the 12km NAM has shifted west into Texas, just a bit east of the bay.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3492 Postby pcolaman » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:36 pm




not a good starting point. The llc is to the north of Cuba.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3493 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:38 pm

pcolaman wrote:



not a good starting point. The llc is to the north of Cuba.


Is that a fact? I’m not sure it is.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3494 Postby pcolaman » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:41 pm

BigB0882 wrote:
pcolaman wrote:



not a good starting point. The llc is to the north of Cuba.


Is that a fact? I’m not sure it is.



NDG posted on page 188 according to recon.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3495 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:41 pm

BigB0882 wrote:
pcolaman wrote:



not a good starting point. The llc is to the north of Cuba.


Is that a fact? I’m not sure it is.

Recon found a windshift at the surface with that MLC on the north side. Center is likely either in the process of relocating or the north center is attempting to compete with the south center.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3496 Postby superfly » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:42 pm

pcolaman wrote:



not a good starting point. The llc is to the north of Cuba.


No it's not. Current position is still well inland based off recon, so init position for 0z should be south of Cuba.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3497 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:43 pm

What would that mean for all these model runs? Do we need to wait yet again for runs with the new center? I guess this has always been the case, people have said over and over to wait until it gets into the Gulf.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3498 Postby Steve » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:45 pm

SoupBone wrote:What is the late cycle EPS?


See boulder’s post. They re-run ensembles with later data input. They do an experimental track as well. Lots of pros caution against relying on it. But early cycle 18z (or late cycle 12z) tipped me off to Katrina. NHC does giant shift in the forecast track at 4, and obviously all hell breaks loose for the next couple of months. So to me it has some value.

Here’s the primer when you have time.
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/guide/early/

And here’s the link to the output maps. Click the storm and you have big access.
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/current/

And a killer addendum
https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/
Last edited by Steve on Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3499 Postby ATCcane » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:47 pm

pcolaman wrote:



not a good starting point. The llc is to the north of Cuba.


That's about where recon fixed it on the first pass.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3500 Postby boulderrr » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:48 pm

Steve wrote:
SoupBone wrote:What is the late cycle EPS?


Ucar - somebody correct me if I’m wrong - is like a consortium of dozens of colleges and universities in North Carolina. They re-run ensembles with later data input. They do an experimental track as well. Lots of pros caution against relying on it. But early cycle 18z (or late cycle 12z) tipped me off to Katrina. NHC does giant shift in the forecast track at 4, and obviously all hell breaks loose for the next couple of months. So to me it has some value.

Here’s the primer when you have time.
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/guide/early/

And here’s the link to the output maps. Click the storm and you have big access.
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/current/

And a killer addendum
https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/


UCAR is the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research based out of Boulder, CO. They work closely with NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research), which is also based out of Boulder. They are housed in a sweet office up near the Flatirons designed by I.M. Pei.
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