Aric Dunn wrote:and it has reformed under the the MLC. no more land in the way .. finally some good reliable models runs.
I wonder if that will make it into this next GFS and Euro.
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Aric Dunn wrote:and it has reformed under the the MLC. no more land in the way .. finally some good reliable models runs.
Rail Dawg wrote:This video was shot by a guy next to me during Michael. Not even the highest gusts and no "Fists of God". That is my squeaky voice commenting in the background lol.
Crank the volume.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C6zGEMMMjws&t=172s
lrak wrote:I can't remember seeing an IR satellite loop like the current one. I "know" but it really looks like two totally separate storms without the visible satellite...I'm stating a "claim" Trippie
storm_in_a_teacup wrote:Rail Dawg wrote:Guys and gals I went through the 185mph gusts of Michael. This is not a boast. This is me telling all of you that video in NO WAY captures just how powerful that wind is.
I was standing literally 20 feet from those winds hunkered down in a parking lot garage. Completely safe and not fearful at all. But holy cow you can NOT believe how devastating that wind is up close and personal.
I will share a story I have posted here before... a couple years ago. Again I have chased 14 hurricanes but it was during Irma (145 mph gusts) and Michael (185 mph gusts) that I discovered a phenomenon that answered a question I had for three decades. Why does one house get smashed but the house next to it survive relatively intact?
At the height of the hurricane you will hear what sounds like an F-18 fighter jet screaming above you at 1000 feet. Count about 10 seconds and suddenly what I call the "Fist of God" lowers out of the sky. It is about the size of a house and it contains more water than anything else around it. This Fist of God is your 185 mph gust. It is incredible to watch because it lowers to the ground and smashes to pieces anything in front of it. Brick buildings. Houses. 300-year-old oak trees. That is why one house gets smashed and the next one does not.
If you watch a video of Michael turn your volume up to max blast. Turn the bass all the way up. And then listen. You will get the first inkling just how powerful these winds can get. I'm telling you straight up it is unbelievable standing next to that power. It is as close as you can get to a tornado and live to tell the story.
Thanks for listening. This stuff fascinates me. People who say they are going to ride out a Cat 4 in a wooden home have no idea the terror they will be facing.
Does footage of these "fists of God" exist anywhere?
cfisher wrote:There's not enough convection in the meso north of Cuba to maintain a surface low. Pressures are probably probably falling out the bottom near this convection south of Cuba
storm_in_a_teacup wrote:Does footage of these "fists of God" exist anywhere?
HoustonFrog wrote:So what time (central) are next models? Debating whether to stay up
...LAURA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER WESTERN CUBA...
11:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 24
Location: 22.7°N 84.0°W
Moving: WNW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 22.7N 84.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 23.7N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 25.2N 89.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 26.8N 91.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 28.8N 93.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 31.3N 93.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
72H 28/0000Z 33.8N 93.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 29/0000Z 36.7N 89.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/0000Z 36.9N 77.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
SoupBone wrote:Per the NHC discussion they shifted the track slightly left. Not good.
SoupBone wrote:Per the NHC discussion they shifted the track slightly left. Not good.
Although the global models are in relatively good agreement, there remains some spread in the ensemble members, especially in the ECMWF. Therefore, confidence in thetrack forecast is still not high.
NevadaFan18 wrote:New forecasted intensity max is 110mph now
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests