ATL: LAURA - Models

[Steve]

Late cycle
https://i.imgur.com/n8PYhab.png

Early cycle guidance
https://i.imgur.com/Z27Bzsf.png

Late cycle EPS
https://i.imgur.com/c9BCmz4.png

not a good starting point. The llc is to the north of Cuba.

Those are from any number of hours ago. You have to subtract the hours from z. It still could be off from back then for sure. I didn’t look up to compare.

[Steve]

What is the late cycle EPS?

Ucar - somebody correct me if I’m wrong - is like a consortium of dozens of colleges and universities in North Carolina. They re-run ensembles with later data input. They do an experimental track as well. Lots of pros caution against relying on it. But early cycle 18z (or late cycle 12z) tipped me off to Katrina. NHC does giant shift in the forecast track at 4, and obviously all hell breaks loose for the next couple of months. So to me it has some value.

Here’s the primer when you have time.
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/guide/early/

And here’s the link to the output maps. Click the storm and you have big access.
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/current/

And a killer addendum
https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/

UCAR is the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research based out of Boulder, CO. They work closely with NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research), which is also based out of Boulder. They are housed in a sweet office up near the Flatirons designed by I.M. Pei.

Thanks on that. I looked back up and about 6 colleges from NC/SC were tied in. That’s how I found it. So much obliged.

[stormlover2013]

Icon cat 3 crystal beach

[catskillfire51]

Icon cat 3 crystal beach

Pulling hairs but it is more Port Arthur. Will probably change but just because Crystal Beach is a lot closer to Houston I feel like it makes a difference.

[tolakram]

[SoupBone]

ICON definitely a slight bit more west.

[sphelps8681]

Icon cat 3 crystal beach

Pulling hairs but it is more Port Arthur. Will probably change but just because Crystal Beach is a lot closer to Houston I feel like it makes a difference.

You are not looking at much difference between the two. Maybe 60 miles. Gone to both locations fishing often so not much distance between the two. Houston is almost 100 miles away.

[superfly]

Icon cat 3 crystal beach

Pulling hairs but it is more Port Arthur. Will probably change but just because Crystal Beach is a lot closer to Houston I feel like it makes a difference.

You are not looking at much difference between the two. Maybe 60 miles. Gone to both locations fishing often so not much distance between the two. Houston is almost 100 miles away.

60 miles means a big difference for Houston though. A Port Arthur hit means not much more than rain for Houston. Will be quite a bit gustier if it's Crystal Beach.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS initialized:

[cheezyWXguy]

00z GFS initialized:
https://i.imgur.com/uwwIZ8z.png

Looks like a good depiction to me

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS our 6 + trend. It's 7mb weaker than 18z:

Also coming in more west.

[SoupBone]

Yikes at 12 Hours it's jumped way NW.

[shah83]

Watch the ridge first.

[jasons2k]

Keep this focused on the models.

[cheezyWXguy]

Watch the ridge first.

Looks a tiny bit stronger at 500mb. May not make much of a difference though

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS hour 18 holding steady in intensity:

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS hours 00-24:

[shah83]

Watch the ridge first.

Looks a tiny bit stronger at 500mb. May not make much of a difference though

Looking at shape of the ridge, looking at where the softest point at the western gulf is...

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS hour 30 + trend. Coming in SW for sure.

[jasons2k]

Ridge is a hair stronger.