ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- Cataegis96
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Sounds like 0z will be crucial to what the NHC ultimately decides for the 5 am cone. That will likely be one of the most important forecasts of the storm's lifetime, as anyone who hasn't made plans yet, particularly in points further south of the cone, will need to do so using that outlook. They should still be preparing for the worst case scenario regardless.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Eh, I think the 12z will be more important on account of reduced confounding factors in gulf. Tho' that might be later than people can profitably use that info.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Cataegis96 wrote:Sounds like 0z will be crucial to what the NHC ultimately decides for the 5 am cone. That will likely be one of the most important forecasts of the storm's lifetime, as anyone who hasn't made plans yet, particularly in points further south of the cone, will need to do so using that outlook. They should still be preparing for the worst case scenario regardless.
Do you think there will be enough info in the 0z? Or will the 6z be better?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Random maybe stupid question but..What is going to help make Laura take her turn towards the north and north east like the cone has it?
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- SouthernBreeze
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
11PM NHC Disco:
Key Messages:
1. Laura is forecast to reach the northwestern Gulf Coast as a
hurricane late Wednesday and early Thursday. Do not focus
on the details of the official forecast given the typical
uncertainty in NHC's 2 to 3 day track and intensity predictions. In
addition, storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards will extend well
away from Laura's center along the Gulf Coast.
2. There is a risk of life-threatening storm surge from San Luis
Pass, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, within the next 48
hours, and a storm surge watch is in effect for these areas
outside of the southeast Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk
Reduction System. Residents in these areas should follow any advice
given by local officials.
3. Hurricane conditions are possible by late Wednesday from Port
Bolivar, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, with tropical
storm conditions possible by Wednesday afternoon, and a hurricane
watch is in effect. Additional hurricane watches may be needed
farther south along the Texas coast if the track forecast shifts
toward the south and west tonight and Tuesday.
4. Tropical storm conditions and heavy rainfall are expected across
central and western Cuba for several more hours. These rains could
cause mudslides and life-threatening flash and urban flooding.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 22.7N 84.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 23.7N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 25.2N 89.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 26.8N 91.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 28.8N 93.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 31.3N 93.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
72H 28/0000Z 33.8N 93.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 29/0000Z 36.7N 89.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/0000Z 36.9N 77.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Key Messages:
1. Laura is forecast to reach the northwestern Gulf Coast as a
hurricane late Wednesday and early Thursday. Do not focus
on the details of the official forecast given the typical
uncertainty in NHC's 2 to 3 day track and intensity predictions. In
addition, storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards will extend well
away from Laura's center along the Gulf Coast.
2. There is a risk of life-threatening storm surge from San Luis
Pass, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, within the next 48
hours, and a storm surge watch is in effect for these areas
outside of the southeast Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk
Reduction System. Residents in these areas should follow any advice
given by local officials.
3. Hurricane conditions are possible by late Wednesday from Port
Bolivar, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, with tropical
storm conditions possible by Wednesday afternoon, and a hurricane
watch is in effect. Additional hurricane watches may be needed
farther south along the Texas coast if the track forecast shifts
toward the south and west tonight and Tuesday.
4. Tropical storm conditions and heavy rainfall are expected across
central and western Cuba for several more hours. These rains could
cause mudslides and life-threatening flash and urban flooding.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 22.7N 84.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 23.7N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 25.2N 89.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 26.8N 91.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 28.8N 93.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 31.3N 93.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
72H 28/0000Z 33.8N 93.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 29/0000Z 36.7N 89.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/0000Z 36.9N 77.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Last edited by SouthernBreeze on Mon Aug 24, 2020 10:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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My posts are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. It's just my opinion and not backed by sound meteorological data, and NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
grazed by many - most wind damage: Hugo (pre-cellphone days!) & most water: Floyd
grazed by many - most wind damage: Hugo (pre-cellphone days!) & most water: Floyd
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I'm thinking we see the start of an RI phase in about 2-3 hours once the main source of inflow isn't encumbered by the mountains of Cuba due to westward movement (ala GFS forecast). it will be a direct surge of moisture into its core instead of being mechanically lifted up and focused convection on the mountains
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
welp 15 years ago tonight I joined storm2K to be able to lurk/post during Katrina IIRC...and now Laura threatens Gulf States after the GAs...prayers...
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Stay safe y'all
- DestinHurricane
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Kristymac03 wrote:Random maybe stupid question but..What is going to help make Laura take her turn towards the north and north east like the cone has it?
Laura will be rounding the edge of the ridge.
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Michael 2018
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
sma10 wrote:NevadaFan18 wrote:New forecasted intensity max is 110mph now
I think if I'm in W LA/Upper TX Coast, I'd take 110mph right now in a heartbeat
I would take a dissipating storm for 5000 Alex..
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
All it takes is a little stronger high to push her right into middle Texas and then houston
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Kristymac03 wrote:Random maybe stupid question but..What is going to help make Laura take her turn towards the north and north east like the cone has it?
the western periphery of the ridge of high pressure. The ridge will also be weakened by a developing trough of low pressure.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
cfisher wrote:There's not enough convection in the meso north of Cuba to maintain a surface low. Pressures are probably probably falling out the bottom near this convection south of Cuba
I don't see any competing energy south of Cuba? Check out the healthy presentation on Mimic. Laura is about to go nuclear? http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Sanibel wrote:That last hit on Cuba took a toll...
Not according to recon.
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Sanibel wrote:That last hit on Cuba took a toll...
What do you mean by that??? Recon and Satellite Views, she looks very good that didn't lose too much. If the Lower lobe keeps that energy and wraps all the way around the center, we are in major danger.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Sanibel wrote:That last hit on Cuba took a toll...
not enough of a toll sadly. it's already going to start organizing tonight.
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- eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Cataegis96 wrote:Sounds like 0z will be crucial to what the NHC ultimately decides for the 5 am cone. That will likely be one of the most important forecasts of the storm's lifetime, as anyone who hasn't made plans yet, particularly in points further south of the cone, will need to do so using that outlook. They should still be preparing for the worst case scenario regardless.
Absolutely! A lot of people are going to bed tonight saying “if we wake up tomorrow and it still looks like it’s going to hit us we’re leaving.” My wife and I have had that same discussion many many times. It sucks because this year we don’t know what we’d do because of Covid and I imagine many others are having that dilemma. What type of precautions has Texas taken to deal with Covid and evacuating possibly hundreds of Thousands of people?
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- jasons2k
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Sanibel wrote:That last hit on Cuba took a toll...
Not according to recon.
Or according to the NHC Discussion:
Since then the storm has moved across western Cuba and is now
coming off the island and over the extreme southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. Radar data from Cuba and satellite images indicate that
the storm has become better organized with deep convection
beginning to wrap around the center with persistent thunderstorms
on the south side. Data from the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane
Hunters indicate that the pressure has fallen to 996 mb and that
the winds are around 55 kt.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
The Cuba interaction has significantly broadened the wind field so it should take quite a big longer for any sort of RI in terms of wind speed (though the pressure could certainly bomb in next 24 hours).
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- tropicwatch
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Looking like the actual center is further southwest then what we thought but still offshore. This is based on what HH just found.
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Tropicwatch
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