ATL: LAURA - Models

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS down 962 mb hour 36:

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS hour 42 down to 957mb + trend:

[St0rmTh0r]

00z GFS hour 42 down to 957mb:
https://i.imgur.com/NcqIh14.png

This usually means the storm ends up much stronger than this.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

00z GFS hour 42 down to 957mb + trend:
https://i.imgur.com/dFISxwk.gif

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS hours 24-48:


Let's see if it hooks into eastern LA or goes further west into Texas.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS hours 48-60. Landfall just east of the TX/LA border. Bit more west though compared to the 18z.

[SoupBone]

00z GFS hours 48-60. Landfall just east of the TX/LA border. Bit more west though compared to the 18z.
https://i.imgur.com/264NjcP.gif

It is, and it's concerning. These slight steps west each run could eventually push it toward Houston.

[shah83]

I strongly suspect that we will see further westward targets in future runs. The GFS is prone to eroding ridging too quickly and often is on the right side of the envelope.

[Kingarabian]

Here is the GFS's IR depiction for Laura just before landfall:

[jaguars_22]

For me in Victoria I’m safe from westward trends due to the trough protecting me this far west? I mean I could get the western extent of the storm as it goes due north towards Houston?

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS hours 48-60. Landfall just east of the TX/LA border. Bit more west though compared to the 18z.
https://i.imgur.com/264NjcP.gif

It is, and it's concerning. These slight steps west each run could eventually push it toward Houston.

Yeah if the GFS is starting to correct then its a concern. It's usually biased towards less high pressure.

[cheezyWXguy]

00z GFS hours 48-60. Landfall just east of the TX/LA border. Bit more west though compared to the 18z.
https://i.imgur.com/264NjcP.gif

It is, and it's concerning. These slight steps west each run could eventually push it toward Houston.

They could, it’s hard to say. I’d be curious to see some pro met input on the gfs’s depiction of the ridge since that was in question earlier. Slightly stronger than the 18z through 30 hrs, slightly weaker after that

[cheezyWXguy]

So far NAM, ICON, and GFS have very slightly shifted west. Up next is HMON in 35 minutes, followed by HWRF. Will be interesting to see what they do, as well as the gfs and euro ensembles when they come out.

[Keldeo1997]

TBH if this the IR for real. 954MB is to weak

[superfly]

Looks like some $$ is coming my way. I have a bet with a friend for $1000 that the eye wouldn't come within 50 miles of Houston.

[Kingarabian]

So far NAM, ICON, and GFS have very slightly shifted west. Up next is HMON in 35 minutes, followed by HWRF. Will be interesting to see what they do, as well as the gfs and euro ensembles when they come out.

CMC in 20 mins and UKMET in like 7 minutes

[stormlover2013]

Jma Freeport

[gqhebert]

00z GFS hours 48-60. Landfall just east of the TX/LA border. Bit more west though compared to the 18z.
https://i.imgur.com/264NjcP.gif

It is, and it's concerning. These slight steps west each run could eventually push it toward Houston.

They could, it’s hard to say. I’d be curious to see some pro met input on the gfs’s depiction of the ridge since that was in question earlier. Slightly stronger than the 18z through 30 hrs, slightly weaker after that

I just chatted with a couple of respected pro mets and they advised the ridge is trending stronger than before.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/747664676946706452/gfs_ir_seus_8.png

TBH if this the IR for real. 954MB is to weak

Why does this look like its going more east? Is there a more eastward trend occuring?

[jaguars_22]

Hehe the jma was posted!!! Awesome any model right now could be right