ATL: LAURA - Models

[Highteeld]

00z SHIPS... those are some significant RI probabilities - and SHIPS is not as aggressive as some other models on this system.

.
* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* LAURA AL132020 08/25/20 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 62 67 73 81 86 83 77 69 60 56 55 61 51 39 30
V (KT) LAND 55 62 65 71 76 85 89 54 36 30 28 27 27 36 27 N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 55 61 65 68 73 82 87 55 35 29 28 27 27 35 36 33 29
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 4.9 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 2.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 38% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)

No wonder the NHC's intensity is so conservative. The SHIPS barely has a Cat.2. Odd considering how bullish it is on open MDR systems.

Didn't know what to do with Cuba. bet those numbers come up for the 6z run

[WxEp]

00z SHIPS... those are some significant RI probabilities - and SHIPS is not as aggressive as some other models on this system.

.
* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* LAURA AL132020 08/25/20 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 62 67 73 81 86 83 77 69 60 56 55 61 51 39 30
V (KT) LAND 55 62 65 71 76 85 89 54 36 30 28 27 27 36 27 N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 55 61 65 68 73 82 87 55 35 29 28 27 27 35 36 33 29
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 4.9 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 2.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 38% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)

No wonder the NHC's intensity is so conservative. The SHIPS barely has a Cat.2. Odd considering how bullish it is on open MDR systems.

That is true but with those RI probabilities it is certainly demonstrating the potential for significantly higher intensity than its current forecast.

[wxman22]

Euro track would produce hurricane force winds in Metro Houston probably stronger than Ike's winds.

[shah83]

Laura also landfalls on Atlantic Canada in the 00z Euro run.

[1900hurricane]

06Z stext is out.

* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* LAURA AL132020 08/25/20 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 63 69 74 82 86 83 75 69 63 58 64 70 59 48 43
V (KT) LAND 55 58 63 69 74 82 86 45 33 29 27 27 33 39 27 18 N/A
V (KT) LGEM 55 59 63 67 71 78 85 45 32 28 27 27 33 40 41 38 35
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP

SHEAR (KT) 9 14 10 6 7 9 21 24 19 16 21 28 36 38 69 79 66
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 6 4 0 2 0 3 1 2 5 3 -1 8 0 -3 -1
SHEAR DIR 2 9 34 32 325 284 268 247 276 268 266 264 263 218 227 212 241
SST (C) 30.2 30.4 30.4 30.1 30.5 30.2 30.9 31.8 30.6 30.0 30.0 28.4 28.3 26.4 20.2 15.9 13.9
POT. INT. (KT) 173 173 173 174 173 172 172 172 172 170 173 148 148 124 87 78 76
ADJ. POT. INT. 169 170 171 165 169 157 169 172 155 142 152 140 141 114 82 75 73
200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.1 -50.8 -50.4 -50.6 -50.0 -49.3 -49.4 -49.9 -50.5 -51.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -50.6 -50.2 -51.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.4 1.7 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.7 0.0 0.7 1.0 2.2
TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 11 10 11 10 12 8 12 7 10 7 4 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 55 53 55 58 59 62 59 56 55 58 60 57 51 47 50 46 43
MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 22 23 24 24 25 23 18 14 12 10 17 24 22 23 27
850 MB ENV VOR 25 19 41 43 21 -1 -61 -43 -98 0 3 60 125 156 193 204 171
200 MB DIV 19 12 31 42 29 30 21 40 8 8 38 27 27 68 47 78 56
700-850 TADV -4 -6 -1 -6 -1 1 25 2 31 5 48 64 15 13 24 -35 -26
LAND (KM) 75 213 270 373 391 249 17 -258 -498 -625 -633 -389 273 462 218 45 862
LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.3 24.0 24.8 25.6 27.3 29.6 32.1 34.5 36.0 36.4 36.6 36.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 85.0 86.3 87.6 89.1 90.6 92.4 93.5 93.5 92.3 90.5 87.2 81.3 72.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 15 16 14 12 12 12 12 11 19 29 31 29 33 37 38
HEAT CONTENT 124 56 59 56 73 41 43 7 6 5 5 3 23 1 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 19. 21. 21. 19. 16. 13.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -6. -10. -18. -29. -36.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. -8. -13. -17. -20. -12. -3. -6. -5. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 9. 13. 12. 9. 5. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 19. 27. 31. 28. 20. 14. 8. 3. 9. 15. 4. -7. -12.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 22.6 85.0

** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/25/20 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 8.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 3.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 73.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.48 2.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 2.7
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 2.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 1.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 330.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.59 1.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.77 0.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.8 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 41.0% 23.3% 13.5% 12.9% 25.4% 20.1% 18.1%
Logistic: 9.4% 28.5% 19.8% 15.7% 10.1% 19.0% 21.8% 8.3%
Bayesian: 2.3% 24.5% 8.8% 1.6% 0.7% 5.2% 4.5% 0.2%
Consensus: 7.0% 31.4% 17.3% 10.3% 7.9% 16.6% 15.4% 8.8%
DTOPS: 12.0% 75.0% 43.0% 23.0% 6.0% 15.0% 5.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/25/20 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/25/2020 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 5( 5) 8( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 1( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 63 69 74 82 86 45 33 29 27 27 33 39 27 18 DIS
18HR AGO 55 54 59 65 70 78 82 41 29 25 23 23 29 35 23 DIS DIS
12HR AGO 55 52 51 57 62 70 74 33 21 17 15 15 21 27 15 DIS DIS
6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 50 58 62 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

[kevin]

Remember that, even though its initialization position seems almost spot on, 00z EC initialized a bit too weak (about 5 mbar too weak) and still got all the way down to 941. Of course you can't exactly scale these initialization parameters into the future, but based on the initialization the real landfall intensity might be slightly stronger than EC is showing right now. Either way, this could become a monster storm. Please listen to and follow any evacuation procedures, but even if they're not there yet, if I'd live in the Houston area I'd have an escape plan ready right now.

[USTropics]

One of the better performing models for intensity is the HCCA, or the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Plan (HFIP) Corrected Consensus model. This is essentially a corrected consensus model that uses a plethora of data (GFS, NRL COAMPS, DSHP/LGEM, UKMET, ECMWF, and HWRF ensembles) and then "fixes" known biases (see quote below on some of these processes).

Here is how it scored in 2019 for intensity:


Yesterday's 12z run:

One of the key strategies defined in the revised Hurricane Forecast Improvement Plan (HFIP) in response to the proposed framework for addressing Section 104 of the Weather Research Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 is to advance an operational Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) at NOAA/NWS. HAFS will be a multi-scale model and data assimilation package capable of providing analyses and forecasts of the inner core structure of the TC out to 7 days, which is key to improving size and intensity predictions, as well as the large-scale environment that is known to influence the TC's motion. HAFS will provide an operational analysis and forecast system out to 7 days for hurricane forecasters with reliable, robust and skillful guidance on TC track and intensity (including RI), storm size, genesis, storm surge, rainfall and tornadoes associated with TCs. It will provide an advanced analysis and forecast system for cutting-edge research on modeling, physics, data assimilation, and coupling to earth system components for high-resolution TC predictions within the outlined Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS)/Strategic Implementation Plan (SIP) objectives of the Unified Forecast System (UFS). HAFS is supported under Hurricane Supplemental project - 3A-2: Accelerate Re-engineering of Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting System (HAFS).

http://www.hfip.org/hafs/

[Brent]

[kevin]

Wow, that's a huge shift West.

[storm4u]

Seems like Houston might be in big trouble

[PandaCitrus]

This is pretty much worst case scenario track for Houston with right front quad maximizing surge into galveston and south Harris County and core winds over Downtown Houston. $500 B+ storm if it hits at Cat 4/5.

:double:

https://i.ibb.co/Nxy6RWw/FB-IMG-1598339306006.jpg

[Highteeld]

:double:

https://i.ibb.co/Nxy6RWw/FB-IMG-1598339306006.jpg

Brings Rockport to Port O'Connor, Texas into play.

[USTropics]

Can anyone recall this much spread at basically 48 hours? Of the 51 ECMWF members, I count a single member that shows an LA landfall, and that's extreme SW LA:

[1900hurricane]

EPS mean landfalls in almost the same spot as the last 12Z. As other guidance creeps west, EPS remains rock steady.

[northjaxpro]

Seems like Houston might be in big trouble

Yeah, that new 00Z EURO run very scary for Galveston and Houston.

[Kingarabian]

Can anyone recall this much spread at basically 48 hours? Of the 51 ECMWF members, I count a single member that shows an LA landfall, and that's extreme SW LA:
[url]https://i.imgur.com/xz81zOy.png[url]

Probably due to the nature of the steering, which is a rounding of the sub tropical ridge and waiting to be picked up by a trough. How expansive the ridge is and just when the trough picks it up remains cloudy. I haven't seen this much spread for a GOM. But I have for Lane 2018 and Douglas 2020 and they actually had a similar steering pattern. Spread remained on those two well past the 24 hour mark.

[LarryWx]

I counted 4 of 51 Laura 0Z EPS members which came off the SE coast but then got stuck and came back into the Daytona-Hilton Head corridor within Sep 3-5.

[Kingarabian]

06z ICON further SW:


Western shifts continue.

[jaguars_22]

Do you think I should be worried in Victoria ?

[aperson]

06z gfs is rollig. The analysis trend in steering versus the 00z probably tells us all we need to know about how this run plays out.