ATL: LAURA - Models

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3701 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:10 am

HWRF trend:
Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3702 Postby LSU Saint » Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:11 am

kevin wrote:HWRF landfall at 51 hours, 942 mbar. Winds at 48 hours (just before landfall) are 117 kts / 135 mph / 217 kmh.

https://i.imgur.com/8W4j490.png


Are we back to an eastern shift? Seems in the day we shift east and at night we shift west
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3703 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:12 am

LSU Saint wrote:
kevin wrote:HWRF landfall at 51 hours, 942 mbar. Winds at 48 hours (just before landfall) are 117 kts / 135 mph / 217 kmh.

https://i.imgur.com/8W4j490.png


Are we back to an eastern shift? Seems in the day we shift east and at night we shift west

Still on west maybe even WSW shift into the 06z suite.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3704 Postby SoupBone » Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:13 am

The HWRF has been the least manic of the models, with gradual changes over time in location. i'm not necessarily saying I trust it more, but it hasn't had any wild swing that I can recall. All track shifts have been gradual.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3705 Postby HouTXmetro » Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:29 am

Kingarabian wrote:
LSU Saint wrote:
kevin wrote:HWRF landfall at 51 hours, 942 mbar. Winds at 48 hours (just before landfall) are 117 kts / 135 mph / 217 kmh.

https://i.imgur.com/8W4j490.png


Are we back to an eastern shift? Seems in the day we shift east and at night we shift west


Still on west maybe even WSW shift into the 06z suite.
Going to pull my hair out if we have more windshield wiper effects today. Today will be madness in HOU
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3706 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:45 am

06z Euro rolling.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3707 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:49 am

Kingarabian wrote:06z Euro rolling.

Through 6 hours its still too weak @ 996mb.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3708 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:54 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:06z Euro rolling.

Through 6 hours its still too weak @ 996mb.

Down to 992mb hour 15 but that's still too weak. 986mb hour 18.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3709 Postby SoupBone » Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:54 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:06z Euro rolling.

Through 6 hours its still too weak @ 996mb.

Down to 992mb hour 15 but that's still too weak. 986mb hour 18.



What about location?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3710 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:55 am

SoupBone wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Through 6 hours its still too weak @ 996mb.

Down to 992mb hour 15 but that's still too weak. 986mb hour 18.



What about location?

Further south compared to the 00z.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3711 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:58 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:06z Euro rolling.

Through 6 hours its still too weak @ 996mb.

Down to 992mb hour 15 but that's still too weak. 986mb hour 18.

06z Euro 949mb hour 48 pretty much JUST E of Galveston landfall:
Image

Very similar to the 00z Euro.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3712 Postby ATCcane » Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:04 am

Just south of Galveston Bay at 48 hours headed north 949mb. Pretty much the same location as the 00z at 54hrs.
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ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3713 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:14 am

06z Euro a little stronger than previous 0z run, may a couple of miles more west into far eastern Galveston Bay.

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ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3714 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:15 am

6z Euro. showing a 165 to 170 mph Hurricane prettu much into Houston.

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3715 Postby jaguars_22 » Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:24 am

I feel better in middle Texas coast that this will go east of us and north. It’s moving nw now looking on satellite and I don’t see it hooking left?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3716 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:24 am

Another look at the wind gusts being forecasted by the 06z Euro, but I have noticed it tends to be too aggressive with wind gusts in the past, a lot of times, but if it deepens more than 940s mb it forecasts gusts could very well be this strong.

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3717 Postby SoupBone » Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:32 am

NDG wrote:Another look at the wind gusts being forecasted by the 06z Euro, but I have noticed it tends to be too aggressive with wind gusts in the past, a lot of times, but if it deepens more than 940s mb it forecasts gusts could very well be this strong.

https://i.imgur.com/8SdsxCM.png


Which puts Houston under manageable winds, at least at that landfall. It wouldn't be fun though.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3718 Postby hershels » Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:35 am

SoupBone wrote:
NDG wrote:Another look at the wind gusts being forecasted by the 06z Euro, but I have noticed it tends to be too aggressive with wind gusts in the past, a lot of times, but if it deepens more than 940s mb it forecasts gusts could very well be this strong.

https://i.imgur.com/8SdsxCM.png


Which puts Houston under manageable winds, at least at that landfall. It wouldn't be fun though.


AGREE!! Lord, I need some sleep. That track is just east of Ike.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3719 Postby Emmett_Brown » Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:36 am

SoupBone wrote:
NDG wrote:Another look at the wind gusts being forecasted by the 06z Euro, but I have noticed it tends to be too aggressive with wind gusts in the past, a lot of times, but if it deepens more than 940s mb it forecasts gusts could very well be this strong.

https://i.imgur.com/8SdsxCM.png


Which puts Houston under manageable winds, at least at that landfall. It wouldn't be fun though.


That's true, I always forget that Houston is 50 miles inland from the GOM.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3720 Postby wxman22 » Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:45 am

NDG wrote:Another look at the wind gusts being forecasted by the 06z Euro, but I have noticed it tends to be too aggressive with wind gusts in the past, a lot of times, but if it deepens more than 940s mb it forecasts gusts could very well be this strong.

https://i.imgur.com/8SdsxCM.png


Similar to Ike there was a tight gradient over Houston, where the far west suburbs of the city only got Tropical storm force winds while the eastern half of the city received wind gust of 80+mph.
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