
ATL: LAURA - Models
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
kevin wrote:HWRF landfall at 51 hours, 942 mbar. Winds at 48 hours (just before landfall) are 117 kts / 135 mph / 217 kmh.
https://i.imgur.com/8W4j490.png
Are we back to an eastern shift? Seems in the day we shift east and at night we shift west
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
LSU Saint wrote:kevin wrote:HWRF landfall at 51 hours, 942 mbar. Winds at 48 hours (just before landfall) are 117 kts / 135 mph / 217 kmh.
https://i.imgur.com/8W4j490.png
Are we back to an eastern shift? Seems in the day we shift east and at night we shift west
Still on west maybe even WSW shift into the 06z suite.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
The HWRF has been the least manic of the models, with gradual changes over time in location. i'm not necessarily saying I trust it more, but it hasn't had any wild swing that I can recall. All track shifts have been gradual.
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- HouTXmetro
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
Going to pull my hair out if we have more windshield wiper effects today. Today will be madness in HOUKingarabian wrote:LSU Saint wrote:kevin wrote:HWRF landfall at 51 hours, 942 mbar. Winds at 48 hours (just before landfall) are 117 kts / 135 mph / 217 kmh.
https://i.imgur.com/8W4j490.png
Are we back to an eastern shift? Seems in the day we shift east and at night we shift west
Still on west maybe even WSW shift into the 06z suite.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
Kingarabian wrote:06z Euro rolling.
Through 6 hours its still too weak @ 996mb.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
Kingarabian wrote:Kingarabian wrote:06z Euro rolling.
Through 6 hours its still too weak @ 996mb.
Down to 992mb hour 15 but that's still too weak. 986mb hour 18.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
Kingarabian wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Kingarabian wrote:06z Euro rolling.
Through 6 hours its still too weak @ 996mb.
Down to 992mb hour 15 but that's still too weak. 986mb hour 18.
What about location?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
SoupBone wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Through 6 hours its still too weak @ 996mb.
Down to 992mb hour 15 but that's still too weak. 986mb hour 18.
What about location?
Further south compared to the 00z.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
Kingarabian wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Kingarabian wrote:06z Euro rolling.
Through 6 hours its still too weak @ 996mb.
Down to 992mb hour 15 but that's still too weak. 986mb hour 18.
06z Euro 949mb hour 48 pretty much JUST E of Galveston landfall:

Very similar to the 00z Euro.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
Just south of Galveston Bay at 48 hours headed north 949mb. Pretty much the same location as the 00z at 54hrs.
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ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
06z Euro a little stronger than previous 0z run, may a couple of miles more west into far eastern Galveston Bay.


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ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
6z Euro. showing a 165 to 170 mph Hurricane prettu much into Houston.


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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
I feel better in middle Texas coast that this will go east of us and north. It’s moving nw now looking on satellite and I don’t see it hooking left?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
Another look at the wind gusts being forecasted by the 06z Euro, but I have noticed it tends to be too aggressive with wind gusts in the past, a lot of times, but if it deepens more than 940s mb it forecasts gusts could very well be this strong.


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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
NDG wrote:Another look at the wind gusts being forecasted by the 06z Euro, but I have noticed it tends to be too aggressive with wind gusts in the past, a lot of times, but if it deepens more than 940s mb it forecasts gusts could very well be this strong.
https://i.imgur.com/8SdsxCM.png
Which puts Houston under manageable winds, at least at that landfall. It wouldn't be fun though.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
SoupBone wrote:NDG wrote:Another look at the wind gusts being forecasted by the 06z Euro, but I have noticed it tends to be too aggressive with wind gusts in the past, a lot of times, but if it deepens more than 940s mb it forecasts gusts could very well be this strong.
https://i.imgur.com/8SdsxCM.png
Which puts Houston under manageable winds, at least at that landfall. It wouldn't be fun though.
AGREE!! Lord, I need some sleep. That track is just east of Ike.
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- Emmett_Brown
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
SoupBone wrote:NDG wrote:Another look at the wind gusts being forecasted by the 06z Euro, but I have noticed it tends to be too aggressive with wind gusts in the past, a lot of times, but if it deepens more than 940s mb it forecasts gusts could very well be this strong.
https://i.imgur.com/8SdsxCM.png
Which puts Houston under manageable winds, at least at that landfall. It wouldn't be fun though.
That's true, I always forget that Houston is 50 miles inland from the GOM.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models
NDG wrote:Another look at the wind gusts being forecasted by the 06z Euro, but I have noticed it tends to be too aggressive with wind gusts in the past, a lot of times, but if it deepens more than 940s mb it forecasts gusts could very well be this strong.
https://i.imgur.com/8SdsxCM.png
Similar to Ike there was a tight gradient over Houston, where the far west suburbs of the city only got Tropical storm force winds while the eastern half of the city received wind gust of 80+mph.
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