ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Beef Stew]

Is the cone staying the same since they are expecting it to be strengthening all the way in, and most strong systems have a more poleward movement, so it might actually make a turn earlier than the models are showing. We always usually see landfalling systems here in the Tx/La area make landfall a little to the East of where the models show, so they are taking historical tracks into consideration for this cone??

As per the discussion:

"The new forecast track before landfall has been nudged a little to the west of the previous track in response to a westward nudge in the guidance. However, it still lies a little east of the consensus models at the time of landfall."

It's not specified why, but it could be that they are giving some weight to the poleward movement of a stronger storm. They could also be waiting on more samples from the ridge.

I thought in this case it would be steered more west if stronger, because the upper level steering will have more influence.

As would I. I was just speculating why they would keep the track to the east of guidance since they didn't explicitly specify their reason for doing so in this advisory.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

If there is any slight sliver lining here it is the relatively high speed at which Laura is traveling. Her forward speed just might prove to be a limiting factor regarding overall intensity. Don't get me wrong, Laura will still likely be a major hurricane at landfall but her good clip might prove the difference between a cat 3 rather than a high end cat 4 or even a cat 5 hitting the coast.

16 MPH isn't that quick, she can easily get to Cat 4.

We'll see.

But yeah, this situation is bad if not dire. The only "bright spots" are some dry air (at present) and that Laura isn't crawling forward at under 10 mph.

[ConvergenceZone]

Trying to find any good news I can. I am glad to hear, as Wxman pointed out, is that the hurricane is MUCH smaller compared to Rita and a couple of others that were mentioned. Better to have a smaller hurricane wind field with such a dangerous storm

[eastcoastFL]

Was awakened this morning by my teammate (who's off duty now) telling me of the track changes. He's driving his wife & newborn to San Antonio and will be ready to work from there. I was out of the house within 3 minutes racing to Kroger to get my four five-gallon gas cans filled for the generator. I'm sure hoping it goes in east of GLS Bay, but that's not clear. Won't be until tomorrow evening. Note that Laura is going to be very small compared to Ike & Rita. Rita's hurricane-force winds extended out about 85 miles east of the center, Ike's over 100 miles. Laura's may extend out 30-35 miles east of the center and 20-25 miles west of the center. Much smaller wind damage area, but not good near the track line. Looking at 120 mph wind at landfall, maybe more. Moved the track to just west of BPT now, but we are waiting for the 12Z model runs which will have the G-IV data before making any further adjustments west or east.

I wish you all the best with Laura. Thank you for your many years of excellent service!

[eastcoastFL]

Who is on the desk tonight at the NHC? I’d love to hear what Stewart has to say as this think strengthens.

[FLpanhandle91]

With the AF plane having communication issues, it seems ridiculous that we do not have reliable recon inside of a strengthening hurricane in the Gulf. Even the NOAA plane had much of its data flagged.

[aspen]

This current slow intensity trend is not going to last forever. Laura’s current impediments should become less and less of an issue as the day goes on.
[Tweet]www.twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1298283184103333894[/Tweet]

[SoupBone]

Trying to find any good news I can. I am glad to hear, as Wxman pointed out, is that the hurricane is MUCH smaller compared to Rita and a couple of others that were mentioned. Better to have a smaller hurricane wind field with such a dangerous storm

That would be GREAT news if it verifies because it would limit the damage to a very small radius. Let's hope that verifies.

[curtadams]

I thought in this case it would be steered more west if stronger, because the upper level steering will have more influence.

As would I. I was just speculating why they would keep the track to the east of guidance since they didn't explicitly specify their reason for doing so in this advisory.

The NHC likes continuity and keeping changes small. They moved the track far enough to put most of the heavily populated coastal areas near Houston under hurricane watch, to get residents to evacuate or at least take proper precautions for a major hurricane hit. They're also blending the current model runs with the *past* model runs, which does make Bayesian sense with repeated uncertain projections. They can keep bumping the cone left every 3 hours, if appropriate. Keeping the changes small makes them seem more authoritative and makes people more likely to listen to them, which is essential to their core mission of reducing deaths from tropical systems.

[cheezyWXguy]

That spot in the middle of the CDO kind of looks like a mid-level eye trying to form, but the low level cloud movement along the periphery suggests the LLC is not under it. As others have already posted, this will probably take a few hours to work out. Once it does though, it's go time.

[Dean4Storms]

This just isn't looking good for the Houston area, no doubt winds over 100mph+ will be involved Houston proper according to last 2 runs of the ECM and to the east look out.

[GCANE]

Pretty easy to see the effect of that 350mb 40 knt jet on WV.
Obliterating the whole NW side.

[HoustonFrog]

This just isn't looking good for the Houston area, no doubt winds over 100mph+ will be involved Houston proper according to last 2 runs of the ECM and to the east look out.

Frustrated with the NHC models. As someone on the west side of downtown, making it really difficult on determining what to do. I'm sure they are doing the right thing, but if Laura heads up the TX/LA border, it will be a bag of mostly nothing for us. But so many people/professional meteorologists think it's going to end up pretty close to Galveston, which would result in a pretty nasty few hours/days.

[cheezyWXguy]

This just isn't looking good for the Houston area, no doubt winds over 100mph+ will be involved Houston proper according to last 2 runs of the ECM and to the east look out.

Frustrated with the NHC models. As someone on the west side of downtown, making it really difficult on determining what to do. I'm sure they are doing the right thing, but if Laura heads up the TX/LA border, it will be a bag of mostly nothing for us. But so many people/professional meteorologists think it's going to end up pretty close to Galveston, which would result in a pretty nasty few hours/days.

I do not envy the NHC right now. Not only do they have to determine the likelihood of where this thing makes landfall, but also have to weigh it against the impact of that forecast. If they forecast Galveston now and it stays east, things will get chaotic quickly for "nothing" and the public will be desensitized to the next threat. However, if they continue not forecasting Galveston, and it does make it there, the whole metro area could be taken off guard. No right answer here. At least mandatory evacuation orders have been given in Galveston though, definitely a good call.

[ATCcane]

With the AF plane having communication issues, it seems ridiculous that we do not have reliable recon inside of a strengthening hurricane in the Gulf. Even the NOAA plane had much of its data flagged.

Would be nice for an eye to pop out soon so we'd have something to follow since recon is once again having the dreaded com issues.

[gatorcane]

Showing up on RAMMB floater. There is some dry air around particularly over the EGOM and Florida. Hopefully it is enough to keep her from bombing out as well as getting large. She is still relatively small at the moment.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

WV loop showing dry air:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

[Extratropical94]

With the AF plane having communication issues, it seems ridiculous that we do not have reliable recon inside of a strengthening hurricane in the Gulf. Even the NOAA plane had much of its data flagged.

What I don’t get is why they schedule the NOAA and AF missions to always fly simultaneously, and then end up with 6 hour gaps without any live data. Why not alternate between NOAA and AF and have continuous coverage of the storm?

[DestinHurricane]

This just isn't looking good for the Houston area, no doubt winds over 100mph+ will be involved Houston proper according to last 2 runs of the ECM and to the east look out.

Frustrated with the NHC models. As someone on the west side of downtown, making it really difficult on determining what to do. I'm sure they are doing the right thing, but if Laura heads up the TX/LA border, it will be a bag of mostly nothing for us. But so many people/professional meteorologists think it's going to end up pretty close to Galveston, which would result in a pretty nasty few hours/days.

I do not envy the NHC right now. Not only do they have to determine the likelihood of where this thing makes landfall, but also have to weigh it against the impact of that forecast. If they forecast Galveston now and it stays east, things will get chaotic quickly for "nothing" and the public will be desensitized to the next threat. However, if they continue not forecasting Galveston, and it does make it there, the whole metro area could be taken off guard. No right answer here. At least mandatory evacuation orders have been given in Galveston though, definitely a good call.

NHC will follow the science. If people choose to ignore warning that hurricanes can easily shift and wobble, then that's completely their fault. No one knows the landfall location at this time, NHC will do the best to predict it, and anyone inside the cone should prepare to get hit. No one knows if it will be Galveston landfall or TX/LA so both areas will have to prepare for a direct hit.

[HoustonFrog]

Frustrated with the NHC models. As someone on the west side of downtown, making it really difficult on determining what to do. I'm sure they are doing the right thing, but if Laura heads up the TX/LA border, it will be a bag of mostly nothing for us. But so many people/professional meteorologists think it's going to end up pretty close to Galveston, which would result in a pretty nasty few hours/days.

I do not envy the NHC right now. Not only do they have to determine the likelihood of where this thing makes landfall, but also have to weigh it against the impact of that forecast. If they forecast Galveston now and it stays east, things will get chaotic quickly for "nothing" and the public will be desensitized to the next threat. However, if they continue not forecasting Galveston, and it does make it there, the whole metro area could be taken off guard. No right answer here. At least mandatory evacuation orders have been given in Galveston though, definitely a good call.

NHC will follow the science. If people choose to ignore warning that hurricanes can easily shift and wobble, then that's completely their fault. No one knows the landfall location at this time, NHC will do the best to predict it, and anyone inside the cone should prepare to get hit. No one knows if it will be Galveston landfall or TX/LA so both areas will have to prepare for a direct hit.

For a typical hurricane, 36 hours out, are the models closer in agreement?

[cheezyWXguy]

Frustrated with the NHC models. As someone on the west side of downtown, making it really difficult on determining what to do. I'm sure they are doing the right thing, but if Laura heads up the TX/LA border, it will be a bag of mostly nothing for us. But so many people/professional meteorologists think it's going to end up pretty close to Galveston, which would result in a pretty nasty few hours/days.

I do not envy the NHC right now. Not only do they have to determine the likelihood of where this thing makes landfall, but also have to weigh it against the impact of that forecast. If they forecast Galveston now and it stays east, things will get chaotic quickly for "nothing" and the public will be desensitized to the next threat. However, if they continue not forecasting Galveston, and it does make it there, the whole metro area could be taken off guard. No right answer here. At least mandatory evacuation orders have been given in Galveston though, definitely a good call.

NHC will follow the science. If people choose to ignore warning that hurricanes can easily shift and wobble, then that's completely their fault. No one knows the landfall location at this time, NHC will do the best to predict it, and anyone inside the cone should prepare to get hit. No one knows if it will be Galveston landfall or TX/LA so both areas will have to prepare for a direct hit.

It may be their fault, that's neither here nor there, but the NHC takes both data and impact into account. This is why they've also started classifying PTCs. They exist for the good of the public.