Central Atlantic Tropical Wave (Is Invest 91L)

[SFLcane]

Euro shows a trough as well, albeit a little bit later than 192

Yep here is your trof. Again this wave coming of Africa so far north doesn’t bode well if it wants to make that trek across.

[TheStormExpert]

Really!? This is nearly 10 days out and we’re speculating on the fact that there will be a trough to save the day?

Didn’t we see something very similar early on with Laura and look how far west it’s managing to get.

Btw, I’m guessing the 00z EPS doesn’t show much as no one posted them?

[toad strangler]

Really!? This is nearly 10 days out and we’re speculating on the fact that there will be a trough to save the day?

Didn’t we see something very similar early on with Laura and look how far west it’s managing to get.

Btw, I’m guessing the 00z EPS doesn’t show much as no one posted them?

Speculating? Uhhhh No. Reading the model output verbatim. That's speculating?

[SFLcane]

Really!? This is nearly 10 days out and we’re speculating on the fact that there will be a trough to save the day?

Didn’t we see something very similar early on with Laura and look how far west it’s managing to get.

Btw, I’m guessing the 00z EPS doesn’t show much as no one posted them?

We can speculate “ plenty “ that’s what the thread is for. Yes the eps is quite active.

[TheStormExpert]

Really!? This is nearly 10 days out and we’re speculating on the fact that there will be a trough to save the day?

Didn’t we see something very similar early on with Laura and look how far west it’s managing to get.

Btw, I’m guessing the 00z EPS doesn’t show much as no one posted them?

We can speculate “ plenty “ that’s what the thread is for. Yes the eps is quite active.

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/25/f0bd3426973e8210339e5bf26cf78f3e-full.png

Well yes we can speculate but most know that the trough could be there but not in that same position.

Also, do you have animated tracks of the 00z EPS Guidance, thanks in advance!

[cycloneye]

There it is approaching the coast.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/adrianlinares28/status/1298289549563527168

[toad strangler]

12z GFS brings this waves energy all the way across to the Bahamas but does absolutely nothing with it. Washes out over Bahamas.

[Hurricane Mike]

The 18Z GFS has a "landfall" of the African wave being followed here as a weak low near Jacksonville, FL, just after hour 306 on Sept 6 moving westward, which then was followed by more westward movement to the Gulf coast as an even weaker feature that then meets up with a cold front near the MS River on Sep 8. The point of this is to show that westerly steering may be dominating then due to ridging to the north:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020082418/gfs_mslp_pcpn_seus_51.png

Edit: The 18Z GEFS has essentially nothing.

GFS is such garbage lately

[MarioProtVI]

The 18Z GFS has a "landfall" of the African wave being followed here as a weak low near Jacksonville, FL, just after hour 306 on Sept 6 moving westward, which then was followed by more westward movement to the Gulf coast as an even weaker feature that then meets up with a cold front near the MS River on Sep 8. The point of this is to show that westerly steering may be dominating then due to ridging to the north:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020082418/gfs_mslp_pcpn_seus_51.png

Edit: The 18Z GEFS has essentially nothing.

GFS is such garbage lately

Would just toss it for now as it has been really garbage with TCs in the Atlantic (especially the MDR and further west) until it’s already formed and is decently strong (<995 or so mb as it tends to just weaken and dissipate storms weaker then that)

[sma10]

Looking at the 12Z's today seems like more of the same may be setting up ... vigorous wave, not quite developing, then works its way all the way to 60-70W before taking off. Not good at all if this becomes the seasonal trend

[hurricaneCW]

Steering pattern has broad Atlantic ridge with large heights in NE Canada. Any storm that develops would impact someone.

Take a look at the GEFS/EPS.

[SFLcane]

12z Icon with a pretty potent Tropical Storm nearing PR..

[Cpv17]

12z Icon with a pretty potent Tropical Storm nearing PR..

https://i.imgur.com/9kff7tv.gif

I could see this being another Gulf storm.

[sma10]

12z Icon with a pretty potent Tropical Storm nearing PR..

https://i.imgur.com/9kff7tv.gif

I could see this being another Gulf storm.

Very much so. UK, tho not showing full development yet, send the low a bit SW of ICON

[gatorcane]

I agree the pattern looks quite dangerous when you look at the progged 500MB pattern as depicted by all globals. But plenty of time for the guidance to show a trough to turn any storm the may develop out of this wave. First let's see if we get some development. I think chances are we will see development with this wave.

[SFLcane]

Extremely favorable upper pattern all the way to the bahamas but euro fails to develop as it nears South Florida.

[sma10]

Extremely favorable upper pattern all the way to the bahamas but euro fails to develop as it nears South Florida.

Amazingly, complete rerun of Laura scenario. Go back a week ago today and look at Euro run - streaks Laura all the way across the basin and washes out near FL.

Only 1 run ... but would be unreal if we re-live the "no Euro development" scheme

[SFLcane]

Extremely favorable upper pattern all the way to the bahamas but euro fails to develop as it nears South Florida.

Amazingly, complete rerun of Laura scenario. Go back a week ago today and look at Euro run - streaks Laura all the way across the basin and washes out near FL.

Only 1 run ... but would be unreal if we re-live the "no Euro development" scheme

Yeah no TCs for 10 days this run. Unlikely

[Hypercane_Kyle]

ECMWF has gotten so bad at predicting TC genesis in the long range that I'm just going to assume any well-defined wave on the model will be a tropical storm in reality.