ATL: LAURA - Models

[shah83]

Beaumont, not galveston, previous post probably saw earlier run.

[dantonlsu]

Yeah can someone post up the EURO landfall?

[Highteeld]

2 knots shy of a simulated ERI phase in the euro from 0z Wednesday to 0z Thursday

[tolakram]

Galveston Bay pretty much on 12Z Euro. The 12Z Euro and Ukmet are pretty close together at landfall.

Where can you see the Euro run? I have been using Tropical Tidbits but not sure the correct acronym

You can pay for higher resolution runs, int he above case weathermodels.com. They allow sparse sharing, which so far we've given the ok to do, but just a limited number of images per run.

[snoop9928]

Galveston Bay pretty much on 12Z Euro. The 12Z Euro and Ukmet are pretty close together at landfall.


EDIT...Euro is a bit east of Galveston Bay.

that's more beaumont than galveston bay. that's a eastern shift. NHC may be right on this thing. edit: just saw your edit and this

[ATCcane]

Galveston Bay pretty much on 12Z Euro. The 12Z Euro and Ukmet are pretty close together at landfall.

Where can you see the Euro run? I have been using Tropical Tidbits but not sure the correct acronym

I subscribe to weathermodels.com

My bad though, the Euro was a bit east of where I said initially.

[Highteeld]

Looks like the ERI phase actually does happen from hour 15 to hour 39

[HoustonFrog]

How does 12z Euro compare to the 00z run?

[Highteeld]

How does 12z Euro compare to the 00z run?

Stronger and further east

[kevin]

Wow, wind gusts of 306 kmh (190 mph, 165 kts) just before landfall in the 12z euro run. Not sure how that compares to other historic storms, but 300 kmh+ wind gusts have to be quite rare for landfalling hurricanes. Max mean wind speed seems to be 225 kmh (140 mph), weakens very slightly to 218 kmh (135 mph) before landfall, so definitely a cat 4 in this run.

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1298320915332202497

[KWT]

What's worrying about the ECM is it's a solid 5-10kts too low even later this evening and it's getting to 120kts. That would be suggestive of a peak around 125-130kts based on it being too weak to start.

Crazy run and scary as well.

[PTPatrick]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1298320915332202497?s=20

Def an ugly run. I am little unsure about his assertion that her large size of special concern, primarily because she isnt that large. certainly nothing like Rita, Ike, or Katrina. I dont think these models are forecasting her to become that large either or am I missing something?

[ronyan]

This is just a casual observation (and may not be correct) but doesn't it seem like we've had a relative lack of the large sized systems in the last several years? Seems like everything now has these small tight cores. Is there any knowledge about what causes to be large/small in the basin and the related factors?

[tolakram]

12Z Euro, end of run.

[Blown Away]

Wow, wind gusts of 306 kmh (190 mph, 165 kts) just before landfall in the 12z euro run. Not sure how that compares to other historic storms, but 300 kmh+ wind gusts have to be quite rare for landfalling hurricanes. Max mean wind speed seems to be 225 kmh (140 mph), weakens very slightly to 218 kmh (135 mph) before landfall, so definitely a cat 4 in this run.

https://i.imgur.com/U45c8qF.png

https://i.imgur.com/yk8li2y.png

Personally I’ve experienced almost exactly what the Euro predicted with the wind gusts, so in my 2 recent hurricane experiences this model graphic prediction was very accurate.

[wx98]

12Z Euro, end of run.

https://i.imgur.com/y4tLt4L.gif

Last night and this morning I put together my own personal forecast and I decided on landfall due south of Beaumont, right where this comes in. I don’t have it quite that strong however; counting on a slight weakening as it comes in. This is just my own opinion.

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1298333446885068800

[NDG]

Both GFS and Euro show a well stacked circulation all the way to 200mb for tomorrow, the reason why the Euro is stronger on its latest run I am sure.

[Hayabusa]

That Euro run of Laura made me want to plot its track.

edit:fixed some annotation