ATL: LAURA - Models

[WxEp]

Bad news from 18z SHIPS. Intensity up a bit to 90 kts and also the RI probabilities spiked back upwards.

* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* LAURA AL132020 08/25/20 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 70 76 80 84 88 90 85 79 71 68 60 59 57 48 37 26 18
V (KT) LAND 70 76 80 84 88 90 48 33 29 28 28 31 29 20 23 15 N/A
V (KT) LGEM 70 76 82 87 90 93 49 34 29 28 28 33 37 37 31 34 33
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP

SHEAR (KT) 8 3 9 12 9 21 25 18 14 23 27 40 59 60 72 74 71
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 1 1 0 4 4 3 2 6 3 3 0 -7 -10 -7 -12
SHEAR DIR 21 356 306 310 290 263 257 272 263 254 244 241 210 214 230 253 246
SST (C) 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.1 29.9 30.4 31.6 30.8 29.8 30.0 28.6 24.5 19.6 18.9 15.0 12.8 11.3
POT. INT. (KT) 173 172 172 173 169 172 173 172 168 173 151 107 84 81 73 70 68
ADJ. POT. INT. 164 163 163 158 152 159 173 160 144 154 138 99 79 76 70 67 66
200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.3 -50.6 -50.4 -49.9 -49.5 -49.3 -49.9 -50.7 -51.7 -52.4 -52.0 -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 -52.4 -52.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.6 1.2 1.4 2.1 1.6 1.6
TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 10 11 10 12 7 10 5 9 4 2 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 54 57 56 61 61 58 56 55 61 61 53 52 51 56 49 43 49
MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 25 26 26 26 23 19 14 14 10 13 17 17 17 16 19
850 MB ENV VOR 46 42 17 4 -10 -60 -45 -92 -8 27 111 198 206 179 145 146 121
200 MB DIV 35 51 32 29 38 28 26 23 16 47 40 60 79 72 78 43 18
700-850 TADV 0 -4 -5 0 4 29 2 43 3 42 52 -27 19 -18 -58 -45 -57
LAND (KM) 303 376 401 310 254 30 -258 -527 -653 -721 -372 100 156 86 -22 435 796
LAT (DEG N) 24.3 24.9 25.5 26.4 27.2 29.5 32.1 34.6 36.3 37.4 38.2 39.7 42.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 87.6 88.8 90.0 91.1 92.2 93.4 93.5 92.8 90.3 86.1 80.0 73.0 65.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 13 13 13 12 13 12 15 21 27 29 30 26 24 21 20
HEAT CONTENT 52 63 68 56 39 47 7 6 5 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.9 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)

[jasons2k]

18z Early Guidance - west shift from 12z

[waveaxis]

Yeah can someone post up the EURO landfall?

Code: Select all

25 August 12Z runs:

Model    Landfall                  Intensity
---------------------------------------------------
CMC      Galveston Bay entrance    50 knots  TS
UKMET    Gilchrist/Crystal Beach   71 knots  Cat 1
GFS      Sabine Pass/Port Arthur   89 knots  Cat 2
HWRF     Sabine Pass/Port Arthur  108 knots  Cat 3
ECMWF    High Island              118 knots  Cat 4   <--- EURO

[NDG]

Zoom in look at 18z early models, TVCN still pointing at LA/TX border & Beaumont.

[Highteeld]

[Steve]

Late Cycle 12z plots


Early Cycle 18z plots


Experimental Track vs. Official

[Highteeld]

Late Cycle 12z plots
https://i.imgur.com/Cp2mnnv.png

Early Cycle 18z plots
https://i.imgur.com/EEt93sz.png

Experimental Track vs. Official
https://i.imgur.com/xW8unGf.png

The experimental track is exactly where I have it making landfall

[Steve]

Late Cycle 12z plots
https://i.imgur.com/Cp2mnnv.png

Early Cycle 18z plots
https://i.imgur.com/EEt93sz.png

Experimental Track vs. Official
https://i.imgur.com/xW8unGf.png

The experimental track is exactly where I have it making landfall

I forget about these every year until the real threats come. It's the only thing that comes in between the EC and NAM for the following model cycle. I was unfamiliar with the experimental track until this season. I figured I'd post it and we can see how they do.

[hershels]

Experimental Track vs. Official
https://i.imgur.com/xW8unGf.png[/quote]
The experimental track is exactly where I have it making landfall[/quote]

The COTC or OFCL?

The new guy asks "what do they stand for?"

[HoustonFrog]

Late Cycle 12z plots
https://i.imgur.com/Cp2mnnv.png

Early Cycle 18z plots
https://i.imgur.com/EEt93sz.png

Experimental Track vs. Official
https://i.imgur.com/xW8unGf.png

The experimental track is exactly where I have it making landfall

Experimental into Galveston?

[hershels]

Late Cycle 12z plots
https://i.imgur.com/Cp2mnnv.png

Early Cycle 18z plots
https://i.imgur.com/EEt93sz.png

Experimental Track vs. Official
https://i.imgur.com/xW8unGf.png

The experimental track is exactly where I have it making landfall

Experimental into Galveston?

I looked it up!
COTC = U.S. Navy COAMPS-TC Model Forecast
OFCL = official

[Steve]

Experimental Track vs. Official
https://i.imgur.com/xW8unGf.png

The experimental track is exactly where I have it making landfall[/quote]

The COTC or OFCL?

The new guy asks "what do they stand for?"[/quote]
OFCI is the official NHC track adjusted 6 hours to the present.
COTC is Navy COAMPS model (HFIP version)


Here's the link to the guide. Plots are in the top bar under Real-Time Guidance

http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/guide/

[cheezyWXguy]

18z 12km NAM is into the bolivar peninsula. Not very interested in what it does with Laura's intensity, but it is worth noting that it depicts a stronger high to the north than its previous run did.

[Blown Away]

Late Cycle 12z plots
https://i.imgur.com/Cp2mnnv.png

Early Cycle 18z plots
https://i.imgur.com/EEt93sz.png

Experimental Track vs. Official
https://i.imgur.com/xW8unGf.png

Looks like a slight overall E shift from the 12z to 18z?

[p1nheadlarry]

As an aside, the distance between Galveston and Beaumont is ~75 miles as the crow flies. The radius of the NHC cone within 48 hours is ~70 miles. Not sure I'd call a east-to-west-back-to-east jump in deterministic runs over the last 24 hours a major shift really. And in model domain (not looking at you NAM) that's just a couple of grid cells.

But that's just me

[Hammy]

Why are the CMC, GFS, Euro, and NAM 12km showing much lower winds given the pressures they're showing (CMC isn't even showing a hurricane which is already way off)--is it the model resolution?

[Kingarabian]

18z ICON landfall in case it wasn't posted:

[Blown Away]

18z ICON landfall in case it wasn't posted:
https://i.imgur.com/O8qNQiV.png

Slight E shift at landfall.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS loading for anyone?

[Mob1]

GFF is a hair east of Port Arthur