ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

The rapidly expanding outflow from the massive hot tower is pinching off the mid-level dry air feed from the ridge to the east.
IMHO its mostly steady intensification for the next 24 hrs.
Always amazing to see what a good, solid hot tower can do to change everything around so quickly.

[Kingarabian]

Very cold cloud tops in the Southern eyewall now. Might be the start of RI.

[Blinhart]

Really wish they would have RECON set up where they are constantly got an aircraft in the air until landfall, this is the time we need constant RECON because the strength of the storm and all the other upper air information is needed to be as accurate as possible.

[galvestontx]

https://twitter.com/SylvesterTurner/status/1298318546976595972

Conspiracy theory, what does he know? Ohhhhhhhh

[eastcoastFL]

[Kingarabian]

eye is it 23.87n, 87.60w

So yes south of where you actually think the eye is.

Where and when was that center location reported???

Location: 24.3°N 87.6°W is the last official fix from the NHC.

[eastcoastFL]

https://twitter.com/SylvesterTurner/status/1298318546976595972

Conspiracy theory, what does he know? Ohhhhhhhh

Just make sure you are where you are... everyone is a bit on edge right now

[Blinhart]

eye is it 23.87n, 87.60w

So yes south of where you actually think the eye is.

Where and when was that center location reported???

Because NHC, had it at 24.3N, 87.6W at 1pm.

[Frank P]

eye is it 23.87n, 87.60w

So yes south of where you actually think the eye is.

Per the NHC
1:00 PM CDT Tue Aug 25
Location: 24.3°N 87.6°W

So what your telling me is that Laura actually went due south since the 1:00 pm advisory.... me thinks not...

[Kingarabian]

Should have some microwave passes coming in within the next hour or so... Let's hope they do not miss the center.

[Buck]

The speed at which these towers are firing makes me think we might be getting ready to kick off some RI... those keep up and pressure is going to start to drop fast and winds to follow. I'm somewhat exepecting a Cat 2 by end of the night.

A couple of the 00z models last night showed us getting into that territory this evening. We'll see. Also good to see you as always.

Good to see you too, my friend.

Laura looks a bit like an owl right now, with a large head perched atop its body. She sure looks a lot better than she did this morning, though.

[eastcoastFL]

The rapidly expanding outflow from the massive hot tower is pinching off the mid-level dry air feed from the ridge to the east.
IMHO its mostly steady intensification for the next 24 hrs.
Always amazing to see what a good, solid hot tower can do to change everything around so quickly.

https://i.imgur.com/vcPI9TU.png

Do you see any of your rosby waves or AWRBs around the gulf?

[jlauderdal]

Should have some microwave passes coming in within the next hour or so... Let's hope they do not miss the center.

no worries, plenty of recon and satellite for center analysis

[tarheelprogrammer]

Should have some microwave passes coming in within the next hour or so... Let's hope they do not miss the center.

no worries, plenty of recon and satellite for center analysis

Serious question here, where are the HHs? Why is recon lacking right now? I thought recon was supposed to be in and out of a threat this close to the US ALL DAY LONG

[Steve]

The rapidly expanding outflow from the massive hot tower is pinching off the mid-level dry air feed from the ridge to the east.
IMHO its mostly steady intensification for the next 24 hrs.
Always amazing to see what a good, solid hot tower can do to change everything around so quickly.

https://i.imgur.com/vcPI9TU.png

Do you see any of your rosby waves or AWRBs around the gulf?

He posted a bunch of those windflow maps early today. Saying Rosby Wave should get GCANE close. It's like the Bat Signal or saying the name Voldemort.

[ConvergenceZone]

Anyone think it will get stronger between now and midnight? Or do you think all strengthening will occur tomorrow?

[jlauderdal]

Really wish they would have RECON set up where they are constantly got an aircraft in the air until landfall, this is the time we need constant RECON because the strength of the storm and all the other upper air information is needed to be as accurate as possible.

Would it really change much at this point other than satisfying the thirst for tons of data..we know about where its going and we know its going to require hurricane preprations which don't change based on more recon...does more recon really change any of that?

I have been where you are many times staring down a hurricane and understand the desire for data but focus on your preps, time is better spent on that and helping your neighbor than looking at every data point coming in. The hurricane is heading towards the border and either side of that 75 or miles is in real jeopardy of a 3/4 direct hit but even if its a 1/2 the preps are the same..the difference is the outcome and nobody has control over that regardless of data. The data flood might actually be hurting the models these days more than helping...they haven't been good on track or intensity, feels like we went backwards this year.

[eastcoastFL]

The rapidly expanding outflow from the massive hot tower is pinching off the mid-level dry air feed from the ridge to the east.
IMHO its mostly steady intensification for the next 24 hrs.
Always amazing to see what a good, solid hot tower can do to change everything around so quickly.

https://i.imgur.com/vcPI9TU.png

Do you see any of your rosby waves or AWRBs around the gulf?

He posted a bunch of those windflow maps early today. Saying Rosby Wave should get GCANE close. It's like the Bat Signal or saying the name Voldemort.

I saw the maps but didn’t see one rosby Wave so I feel like I missed something

[jasons2k]

Anyone think it will get stronger between now and midnight? Or do you think all strengthening will occur tomorrow?

It’s getting stronger as we speak...

[bella_may]

It could wobble back west but right now it’s still northeast of the official track