ATL: LAURA - Models

[dantonlsu]

Where is the 18z? Could only find the 12z

[Nuno]

18z ICON landfall in case it wasn't posted:
https://i.imgur.com/O8qNQiV.png

ICON sure loves driving storms into major metropolitan areas. Taking the crown from GFS

[tolakram]

GFS 18Z landfall

[Mob1]

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... mslp&m=gfs

[snoop9928]

https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/12 ... 68775?s=20

[Kingarabian]

GFS 18Z landfall
https://i.imgur.com/fJrV1bp.png

Thank you. Yeah that is east of the Euro and UKMET.

[Blown Away]

GFS 18Z landfall
https://i.imgur.com/fJrV1bp.png

Thank you. Yeah that is east of the Euro and UKMET.

Decent E shift in GFS 18z vs 12z. Maybe 25-35 miles at landfall.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

GFS 18Z landfall
https://i.imgur.com/fJrV1bp.png

Thank you. Yeah that is east of the Euro and UKMET.

Decent E shift in GFS 18z vs 12z. Maybe 25-35 miles at landfall.

Any chance the models keep trending east or is this just more windshield wiper estimations?

[Blown Away]

Thank you. Yeah that is east of the Euro and UKMET.

Decent E shift in GFS 18z vs 12z. Maybe 25-35 miles at landfall.

Any chance the models keep trending east or is this just more windshield wiper estimations?

Anything always possible, but odds heavily favor the EURO/GFS solutions inside of @36 hours with probably an error up to @50 miles from those solutions. JMHO

[PTrackerLA]

18z GFS 3 run trend. Eastern core is inching closer to me in Lafayette, going to be a close call.

[cheezyWXguy]

I haven’t checked, but one thing that needs to be accounted for is the strength of the trough, and how it evolves compared to the models. Landfall is coming up, so margin of error is lower, but gfs has a tendency to overdo troughs and could be overdoing the weakness. On the other hand, the euro has the opposite bias and could be underdoing it.

[Blown Away]

I haven’t checked, but one thing that needs to be accounted for is the strength of the trough, and how it evolves compared to the models. Landfall is coming up, so margin of error is lower, but gfs has a tendency to overdo troughs and could be overdoing the weakness. On the other hand, the euro has the opposite bias and could be underdoing it.

The middle is where the NHC has their track.

[tarheelprogrammer]

East shift incoming from the HMON? It appears to be slightly N of its 12z run at 24 hours.

[cheezyWXguy]

East shift incoming from the HMON? It appears to be slightly N of its 12z run at 24 hours.

Probably. Initialized at 989mb, which may be too weak. I believe it and HWRF feed off of GFS data, so it wouldnt surprise me to see an east shift with them as well.

[tolakram]

HMON landfall

[tolakram]

HWRF running

[tolakram]

[Steve]

I haven’t checked, but one thing that needs to be accounted for is the strength of the trough, and how it evolves compared to the models. Landfall is coming up, so margin of error is lower, but gfs has a tendency to overdo troughs and could be overdoing the weakness. On the other hand, the euro has the opposite bias and could be underdoing it.

It does. But this is a different situation than a trough passing by to the north that might pick up a system or what the pressure pattern in the Western Atlantic might be when a storm is to its east. If you look at the WV of the US, the northern trough moving toward the coast in New England is already past Laura with a large ridge moving in across the country arc'ing all the way into Canada. The trough across Texas which was what kept Marco weak (I think a Rosby Wave in this case) is splitting off down in the Baja. SW flow around the east side is helping create the anticyclonic pattern over the Gulf.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid

To me, the question marks are how much push does the Atlantic high have to keep it south and west vs. any possible escape routes between the pressure entities farther north. Models think there will be enough push and then probably a midlevel high to the north that will help get Laura to 93/94North before it turns up with the flow. Models have all shown a strong push, but this isn't one of those cases with a massive blocking high and push that just moves a storm across the Gulf into Mexico.

[Steve]

HWRF is looking like a midnight landfall tomorrow. Anxiety has to be running high for people in the region.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2518&fh=33

[tolakram]