ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Frank P]

18z GFS, HWRF and HMON model runs all shifted east with center of storm east of TX/LA line in extreme SW LA and appear to be in the upper end Cat 3 range...

[cfisher]

6-7mb pressure drop in 2 hours is impressive without a closed off eye

[NotoSans]

Need to wait for NE pass to ascertain intensity right now, but given the fall in central pressure (and assuming winds have caught up), wouldn't be surprised to see NE pass finding winds ~75kt.

[Nimbus]

Recon just found surface pressures near 984 MB's which is a healthy drop.
Pressure tendency might not be linear much longer unless Laura ingests some of that nearby dry air.

[catskillfire51]

On the picture I posted earliet their pressure drop lines up with the current NHC Track.

[cfisher]

Winds might be weaker due to the size of the eye it's trying to form. Not good for storm surge though

[FixySLN]

Laura has taken over the gulf. It’s her show now

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL132020/16/GOES16-AL132020-16-1000x1000.gif?hash=21453

Can I have the URL for this loop? Can't find this angle on the NOAA site.

Here you go

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/f ... #tabInner1

Many thanks.

[IsabelaWeather]

Mark Sudduth put a remote camera in Cameron, and is setting one up in Holly Beach right now, but not hanging around there for it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=51j0t6L ... e=youtu.be

Brings back memories. My wife and I took our RV and stayed on Holly Beach for a few days. Drove all over the area, watching Mark drive around brings back memories. I wonder how much different the landscape will be in 48 hours.

Most likely underwater with all the buildings from Holly Beach miles inland just like Rita did.

Yeah it for sure will be, I just mean the longer term impact. When I was there I read signs about how before Rita, there were enormous amounts of fish in the little channels there. But with all of the salt water they were all killed, they were just starting to come back too.

[MississippiWx]

Sorry to say, but Laura has the look and setup of every catastrophic hurricane we’ve had the last several years. Praying for an increase in shear and an EWRC before landfall. Otherwise,

Thinking of my neighbors to the west.

[supercane4867]

HWRF has been doing pretty well with Laura so far. According to its 18z run, landfall should be near or at peak intensity. 110-115kt/945mb based on the model.

[jlauderdal]

Brings back memories. My wife and I took our RV and stayed on Holly Beach for a few days. Drove all over the area, watching Mark drive around brings back memories. I wonder how much different the landscape will be in 48 hours.

Most likely underwater with all the buildings from Holly Beach miles inland just like Rita did.

I was just exploring Holly Beach on Google Maps street view and it looks like most things that have been built/rebuilt post Rita/Ike are on stilts and look pretty sturdy. But a monster is a monster, so we will see how they fair. That place is as vulnerable as a place can be.

Cat 3 will test any roof except at nhc,lol

[cfisher]

The upper-level reconnaissance plane found 40-50kt winds at 200mb. That's some insane outflow...

[SconnieCane]

HWRF has been doing pretty well with Laura so far. According to its 18z run, landfall should be near or at peak intensity. 110-115kt/945mb based on the model.

Track modeling seems to be honing in on a Rita redux, perhaps slightly stronger at landfall. Everyone in the cone/watch area should still remain on alert, of course.

[aspen]

Dropsonde in the center has a pressure of 984 mbar. That’s quite a drop from the 990 mbar pressure from the 5pm update.

[cheezyWXguy]

Eyewall is seriously lighting up with these hot towers encircling. If 984mb on the first pass is accurate, I think Laura will be in the upper 970's by the time the mission ends.

[supercane4867]

HWRF has been doing pretty well with Laura so far. According to its 18z run, landfall should be near or at peak intensity. 110-115kt/945mb based on the model.

Track modeling seems to be honing in on a Rita redux, perhaps slightly stronger at landfall. Everyone in the cone/watch area should still remain on alert, of course.

Rita was steady weakening at landfall and barely maintained major hurricane strength. Wind impacts from Laura will most likely be worse than Rita.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Dropsonde in the center has a pressure of 984 mbar. That’s quite a drop from the 990 mbar pressure from the 5pm update.

Not so significant when you consider the last recon was ~990 this morning.

[TallahasseeMan]

Bombs away...


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[Kingarabian]

Looks like the eyewall closed off:

[cfisher]

The dual outflow on visible is just nutty looking