ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tiger_deF]

Dropsonde in the center has a pressure of 984 mbar. That’s quite a drop from the 990 mbar pressure from the 5pm update.

Not so significant when you consider the last recon was ~990 this morning.

Intensification tends to be slower when a storm is forming an inner core

[AxaltaRacing24]

important to remember that all this is occurring during DMIN. just wait until later tonight.

[supercane4867]

Rita vs Future Laura near landfall

[aspen]

Multiple new hot towers are firing off and swirling around the CoC. It does seem like a phase of RI is commencing, and an eyewall is definitely in the process of forming, but I’m waiting to see if there’s a noticeable pressure drop during the next pass, which should go through the NE quadrant and sample the strongest winds.

[Keldeo1997]

RI probability is now getting into the extreme side now

[KWT]

Dropsonde in the center has a pressure of 984 mbar. That’s quite a drop from the 990 mbar pressure from the 5pm update.

Not so significant when you consider the last recon was ~990 this morning.

Intensification tends to be slower when a storm is forming an inner core

Yeah once you close that eyewall off (which through the 3 hot towers present appears to be happening) thats when you will see the faster pressure drops. Probably about to enter an RI spell now.

[supercane4867]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/745830682177306664/747959826616942602/Screenshot_157.png

RI probability is now getting into the extreme side now

A 45kt increase in the next 36 hours would put the landfall intensity to be at least 120kt. Assuming current intensity is 75kt.

[weeniepatrol]

[Kingarabian]

Not so significant when you consider the last recon was ~990 this morning.

Intensification tends to be slower when a storm is forming an inner core

Yeah once you close that eyewall off (which through the 3 hot towers present appears to be happening) thats when you will see the faster pressure drops. Probably about to enter an RI spell now.

Great to have recon in for RI. Just in time.

[MississippiWx]

Frequent lightning is popping in the eye wall. Recon is certainly in there at the right time. Quick strengthening about to commence...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

RI is still very possible. We saw what Harvey did with just 24 hours. No reason this cant either. Diurnal cycle is coming into a favorable time for development. Going to be an interesting night.

[abajan]

Laura has taken over the gulf. It’s her show now

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL132020/16/GOES16-AL132020-16-1000x1000.gif?hash=21453

Can I have the URL for this loop? Can't find this angle on the NOAA site.

The URL is right there in your quote and right here in mine too.

[chaser1]

That is a bad place to chase, concrete structures, i.e. parking garages are the safest places. Too rural.

If you are chasing them, you dont always get a cozy place to hangout like a parking garage...good chasers find it and stay alive, natural or manamade structures.

The Cameron area is a literal death sentence to chase. There is nothing there to protect you from surge or wind. There are also very, very few roads. I would not leave Sabine Pass.

Talk about bringing back bad chase memories from chasing Andrew in our own back yard.... I certainly don't know much about Cameron or that area of Texas coastline but I certainly get an idea from your convo. I'll say this much about "good chasers". They seek out cozy when they can. When cozy isn't there, "adequate" or "lucky" can reasonably work too. There comes a point though where one takes the risk of committing to a location with no recourse while a major hurricane approaches.... WITH one's best case protection ranging from risky to dangerous. Survive and come out with the best footage ever, better yet with a harrowing story to tell and your a hero. Ultimately though, the best chasers live to chase another day. Know when to hold 'em... know when to fold them

[supercane4867]

This is fun to watch for sure...

[Kingarabian]

Nearly 2 hour old SSMIS pass showed the eyewall then open and weaker to the south.

[PTrackerLA]

Laura sure seems to be gaining a lot of latitude, or maybe it's just an illusion.

[tolakram]

[Blinhart]

This is fun to watch for sure...

https://i.imgur.com/JqZNBf8.gif

I'm not having fun watching her explode.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Not so significant when you consider the last recon was ~990 this morning.

Intensification tends to be slower when a storm is forming an inner core

Yeah once you close that eyewall off (which through the 3 hot towers present appears to be happening) thats when you will see the faster pressure drops. Probably about to enter an RI spell now.

I agree - I bet it was steady in the 989-990 range until about 3-4 hours ago.

[ConvergenceZone]

Still not sure why this isn’t popping out a visible Eye yet