ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4721 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:09 pm

Hammy wrote:
BYG Jacob wrote:
DestinHurricane wrote:
Cam down there. That is an extremely rare event and it's unlikely for any given storm to achieve that. 2 in 3 years would be insane.

We've had 3 straight year of category 5 hurricanes, all of them except for Lorenzo made landfall at some point as a category 5


Matthew was Cat 4 in Haiti if I remember.

Think he’s talking about Irma and Maria of ‘17, Michael of ‘18 and Dorian of ‘19
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4722 Postby Highteeld » Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:09 pm

New hot tower going off in the eastern eyewall

Image
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4723 Postby sphelps8681 » Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:11 pm

I understand things can go more east or west. But right now landfall is forecast to be Beaumont/Port Arthur with no more than 36 hours before landfall. All I hear is things about Houston or Louisiana. Which I understand those areas things could be really bad. But there is a place called the Golden Triangle that is pretty much a dead on hit at this time. But it seems that many of the weather people are talking about Houston/Louisiana. We are not a prairie community and there are many that live here and many lives that are impacted.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4724 Postby Steve » Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:11 pm

Maybe a little sample of Laura in a couple hours?
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... X&loop=yes
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4725 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:11 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:If there are any positives, it looks likes the tropics is calming down for awhile after this storm, Thank Goodness!
Awhile as in middle of next week.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4726 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:12 pm

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4727 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:12 pm

Nuno wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:
SconnieCane wrote:
...but Laura doesn't have "loose structure," at least not anymore.

Still relatively loose compared to other intense Gulf storms. It likely won’t stay like this for long but the current lag in wind speeds reported by recon is understandable.


I know large systems often cause a lag between pressure and wind speeds, but why is this seemingly common in the Gulf? Is it because Gulf systems tend to already be developed and undergoing EWRC?

The two factors that I can think off the top of my head are pressure gradient and land interaction.

When a tropical system enters the Gulf, in most cases it has to pass over some form of land due to the enclosed nature of GOM. The resulting structural damage can oftentimes be long lasting and it causes the system to expand in size rather than tightening its inner core. Also background pressures tends to be lower in the Gulf since this region of Atlantic is generally free from the influence of Bermuda high.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4728 Postby Blow_Hard » Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:15 pm

sphelps8681 wrote:I understand things can go more east or west. But right now landfall is forecast to be Beaumont/Port Arthur with no more than 36 hours before landfall. All I hear is things about Houston or Louisiana. Which I understand those areas things could be really bad. But there is a place called the Golden Triangle that is pretty much a dead on hit at this time. But it seems that many of the weather people are talking about Houston/Louisiana. We are not a prairie community and there are many that live here and many lives that are impacted.



I know where Lumberton is and unfortunately it looks like you are basically right near Ground Zero. My heart goes out to you and the folks in your area. I hope you are not staying but if you are I hope you have a safe place in your house you can hunker down in if things get serious. I wish you all the best and everyone in Laura's path is in my prayers.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4729 Postby Rail Dawg » Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:16 pm

In defense of those who exclaim "this is cool" I do understand the mentality. It is human nature to be in awe of what we are witnessing with Laura.

Even when I am watching houses and businesses being blown to shreds I am still exclaiming "Holy Crap!!" and am fascinated to be witnessing such destruction. The destruction is going to happen no matter what we think. Of course we do not enjoy the misery of others but the fact remains this is a major event and we are fascinated. I would risk my life to save someone in trouble and I help in the aftermath specifically with a chainsaw to cut my way out so when I meet the first responders coming in they no longer have to remove fallen trees and branches.

It is why all the news channels camp out in nice hotels and report from the street or balcony just how bad it is. People are fascinated with destruction. Of course I have seen those reporters many times and after their report they go inside the generator-supplied hotel and have a hot meal and use the nice bathrooms. I'm in a parking garage eating cold food and looking for porta-potties lol.

Chuck
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Although I have been a hurricane forecaster since 1980 that only means I've been wrong lots of times.

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Re: RE: Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4730 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:16 pm

abajan wrote:
ajurcat wrote:How can y'all remember what storm had what kts with how many mbs at any given time during their formation? :D I have trouble remembering what I cooked for supper last night! :cheesy: I am so impressed and in awe!

For obvious reasons, the only one who's pressure I can remember is Hurricane Gilbert in '88 which bottomed out at 888 mb.
Typhoon tip 870, what a beast
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4731 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:17 pm

Even though the winds take awhile to adjust to pressure drops, I think they will make it 90 mph on the next update, less than 2 hours away
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4732 Postby psyclone » Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:18 pm

sphelps8681 wrote:I understand things can go more east or west. But right now landfall is forecast to be Beaumont/Port Arthur with no more than 36 hours before landfall. All I hear is things about Houston or Louisiana. Which I understand those areas things could be really bad. But there is a place called the Golden Triangle that is pretty much a dead on hit at this time. But it seems that many of the weather people are talking about Houston/Louisiana. We are not a prairie community and there are many that live here and many lives that are impacted.

The error 36 hours out is such that a range of possibilities are and should be considered. As is the case with intensity. Best of luck to you.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4733 Postby TallahasseeMan » Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:19 pm

Should get another pass soon.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Direct hit: Francis '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05 Hermine '16 Michael '18

Outer bands: Katrina '05 Irma '17

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4734 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:20 pm

Image

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4735 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:21 pm

At the very least I think we're pretty well on track to pass Hanna before I crash in a few hours for bed. Definitely on or ahead of schedule.
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Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4736 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:23 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:Even though the winds take awhile to adjust to pressure drops, I think they will make it 90 mph on the next update, less than 2 hours away


Has recon clocked 90mph ? If they go to 90mph at the 11pm advisory they may have to bump max intensity up again.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4737 Postby Highteeld » Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:24 pm

Unless my eyes are playing games on me, the convective pattern would suggest its llc is shrinking.
Last edited by Highteeld on Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4738 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:25 pm

Has Aric Dunn been around today? Would love his take on this rapidly evolving storm. Or is he en route to chase?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4739 Postby sphelps8681 » Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:25 pm

Blow_Hard wrote:
sphelps8681 wrote:I understand things can go more east or west. But right now landfall is forecast to be Beaumont/Port Arthur with no more than 36 hours before landfall. All I hear is things about Houston or Louisiana. Which I understand those areas things could be really bad. But there is a place called the Golden Triangle that is pretty much a dead on hit at this time. But it seems that many of the weather people are talking about Houston/Louisiana. We are not a prairie community and there are many that live here and many lives that are impacted.



I know where Lumberton is and unfortunately it looks like you are basically right near Ground Zero. My heart goes out to you and the folks in your area. I hope you are not staying but if you are I hope you have a safe place in your house you can hunker down in if things get serious. I wish you all the best and everyone in Laura's path is in my prayers.


Thanks so much and I pray for whoever is in the path of Laura. May not be us but right now it is.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4740 Postby bohai » Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:27 pm

I really feel for the folks in Port Arthur. It is a very poor town except for those that work in the Petro/Chemical biz. Many of the houses there are woo frame and cannot hold up to this potential storm surge and winds. And speaking of such, a direct hit on PA may conjure some really severe chemical contamination if any of those plants are severely damaged. Hopefully all are in an ESD mode already but the mighty buck says probably not. As per Google I county 20 different entities. Could also be an environmental catastrophe.
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