ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TallahasseeMan]

Looks like Recon is setting up for at least one more pass.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[HurricaneEdouard]

I doubt that rate is sustainable but even at 1mb an hour we’re looking at a 955mb storm tomorrow night. I hope it’s not sustainable. Could it be?

955mb is my expectation at the least for Laura within 24 hours.

That’s totally reasonable. I kind of expect that as well though I wouldn’t be shocked if it was stronger.

I'd actually be surprised if it's that high. It's down to 978mb already, and has achieved that pressure with a fairly rapid (1.97mb per hour) deepening rate over the last few hours; furthermore, this pressure comes earlier than the HWRF's forecast, the most consistently bullish model on Laura's intensity. 955mb would mean it only deepens 23mb more over the next 24 hours, at a rate of 0.95mb an hour. This would far from qualify as rapid deepening, and would require a fairly significant reduction in its current deepening rate, without any obvious inhibitor to support that (aside from a little shear just offshore and the matter of how much time it has over water, which is indeed about 24-30 hours).

[NevadaFan18]

Seems to be following the 12z ECMWF closely thus far in terms of intensity.

A sentence I thought I’d not hear for a long time...

[ColdMiser123]

Pressure down to 978 mb based off of the dropsonde splashing at 980 mb with 21 KT surface wind.

Isn't that a cat 2 pressure? Significant drop from earlier today when we were at 991.

The difference between the storm's central pressure and the environmental pressure is what matters more for gauging intensity, alongside how steep the change in pressure is over a given distance. A very broad storm with an environmental pressure of 1005 mb could have a central pressure of 975 mb but have a lower wind speed compared to a very compact storm with an environmental pressure of 1020 mb and a central pressure of 985 mb.

In this case, the storm's wind field is still pretty broad, so with pressure falls, there hasn't been a significant increase in maximum wind speed yet.

[cfisher]

A buoy might take a hit from the inner core a few hours

 https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1298440200914448386

[BRweather]

Not sure if mentioned, but the forward speed has come down. It is slightly behind in where models has it pegged for this time. Not sure if it will matter in the long run, but maybe worth noting.

[eastcoastFL]

https://twitter.com/Wxmanms1/status/1298439228578312193

Even the HWRF the "Bullish" model is underestimating Laura right now

3z is 11 pm EDT, so we actually still have a bit for the pressure discrepancy to grow even more between the HWRF and what's observed. That may also partly explain the location differences as well.

Thats scary when a cane is beating the HWRF intensity estimates

[Steve]

We are starting to get some lightning and thunder. That’s hello fringes of Laura.

[jaxfladude]

Is there any track/intensity concerns for Laura that may be a surprising turn of events for better/worse, or is she doing about as expected all things considered?
Prayers!

[HoustonFrog]

Not sure if mentioned, but the forward speed has come down. It is slightly behind in where models has it pegged for this time. Not sure if it will matter in the long run, but maybe worth noting.

What could that potentially mean?

[supercane4867]

NOAA plane maybe preparing for a final W-E pass.

[Highteeld]

There is a ton of angular momentum in Laura right now... lol

[tarheelprogrammer]

Anymore recon scheduled for tonight?

[dantonlsu]

There is a ton of angular momentum in Laura right now... lol

Elaborate

[PTPatrick]

this seems to be shaping up to be rita 2.0 ...if tonight's model trends hold maybe a few miles east of rita track with probably some more effects in Lake Charles. Will be interesting to see if the aforementioned strengthening happens and if structure holds to landfall ...if so I wouldn't be amazed to see more wind damage than Rita. Much like Katrina her last minute weakening didnt help with the wall of water she was already pushing. I imagine this might have slightly lower surge than rita, especially further east, owing to smaller size and hopefully no prior life as a cat 5. Depending on how strong Laura get though the immediate area to the right of the landfall could approach Rita though.

Does anybody know if there is much of a community left in Holly Beach? I know it was more or lest wiped off the map in Rita.

[Highteeld]

southeast eyewall built like a monster truck tire right now

[Hypercane_Kyle]

There is a ton of angular momentum in Laura right now... lol

Yes... that tends to happen in things that rotate...

[cfisher]

It's still growing in size. It'll probably clear out a massive eye eventually

[TheStormExpert]

Maybe some shear before landfall?

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1298414130404171779

[Highteeld]

There is a ton of angular momentum in Laura right now... lol

Elaborate

very broad, strong wind field. if it were to shrink and consolidate, max winds would skyrocket, but angular momentum would be conserved