ATL: LAURA - Models

[ColdMiser123]

HWRF also significantly stronger than 18z, capturing the pressure evolution through 3z (11 pm EDT) reasonably well.

[catskillfire51]

Curious as to why the past few days a stronger storm was going west but now the stronger storms are making landfall in the same place as the weaker ones?

[Steve]

HWRF continues with the irregular shaped system through 18 hours. It’s dropping and at 947mb then. That’s close to its landfall pressure at 18z. Should get stronger this run.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2600&fh=18

[Steve]

Curious as to why the past few days a stronger storm was going west but now the stronger storms are making landfall in the same place as the weaker ones?

We are closer to landfall now.

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF 18hrs 122kts

[catskillfire51]

Curious as to why the past few days a stronger storm was going west but now the stronger storms are making landfall in the same place as the weaker ones?

We are closer to landfall now.

so even if she strengthens more then expected we are locked in to Port Arthur area?

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF continues with the irregular shaped system through 18 hours. It’s dropping and at 947mb then. That’s close to its landfall pressure at 18z. Should get stronger this run.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2600&fh=18

It’s got a legit eye at 6 hours and really starts going to work from 12 hrs on. Nothing positive about this run for sure

[eastcoastFL]

HMON comes in 126kts right on the border

[eastcoastFL]

Curious as to why the past few days a stronger storm was going west but now the stronger storms are making landfall in the same place as the weaker ones?

We are closer to landfall now.

so even if she strengthens more then expected we are locked in to Port Arthur area?

Not locked in but don’t expect any drastic changes at this point. Models are usually pretty good 24 hours out. Any deviation shouldn’t be more than a few miles

[Steve]

Curious as to why the past few days a stronger storm was going west but now the stronger storms are making landfall in the same place as the weaker ones?

We are closer to landfall now.

so even if she strengthens more then expected we are locked in to Port Arthur area?

At this point it’s probably not going farther west if it strengthened. That was more for the last few days. And it’s going to touch Texas one way or the other instead of coming into SELA.

[eastcoastFL]

Unexpected. Slight weakening on approach by HWRF

[Steve]

Stabilized low 940’s. 3 more hours til landfall on it so we’ll see. Also looks mostly irrelevant to what it is.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Unexpected. Slight weakening on approach by HWRF

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082600/hwrf_mslp_wind_13L_10.png

Doesn't weaken, holds steady right up through landfall.

[eastcoastFL]

Stabilized low 940’s. 3 more hours til landfall on it so we’ll see. Also looks mostly irrelevant to what it is.

Most interesting is the pressure was stable but max wind came down from 122kts to 111kts then back to 115kts by landfall so maybe nhc forecast is on point for intensity.

[us89]

Unexpected. Slight weakening on approach by HWRF

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082600/hwrf_mslp_wind_13L_10.png

NHC discussions from earlier today mentioned the possibility of increased shear as Laura nears the coast, but this was not brought up in the most recent one (03Z).

[cfisher]

I believe there's some shear right along the coast, so a more western track would avoid that shear for longer.

[ColdMiser123]

115 KT/943 mb on the HWRF, low-end Cat 4 at landfall.

[eastcoastFL]

Unexpected. Slight weakening on approach by HWRF

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082600/hwrf_mslp_wind_13L_10.png

Doesn't weaken, holds steady right up through landfall.

I’m talking about max wind. If you look

18 hrs 122kts




24hrs 111kts

[eastcoastFL]

I believe there's some shear right along the coast, so a more western track would avoid that shear for longer.

Actually I think more west would run right into the shear if it holds where it is now

[HurricaneEdouard]

0z HMON was pretty accurate with the pressure evolution through 3z, afterward it has rapid intensification in the short-term.

Looks to be its strongest run in a while.

It’s not giving up yet at 935 and dropping at 24 hours. Seems low for that fast. 4-5 hours left to go so maybe it can get to 932 or 931. I don’t think Laura will get that low.

It would get to 930 if it met the technical criteria for rapid deepening (dropping 1.75mb+ per hour, or 48mb drop, in 24 hours), and/or continued its current deepening rate (around 1.97mb per hour).