ATL: LAURA - Models

[Ritzcraker]

I believe there's some shear right along the coast, so a more western track would avoid that shear for longer.

If it’s along the TX coast then an eastern track would favor a stronger storm...

[eastcoastFL]

Unexpected. Slight weakening on approach by HWRF

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082600/hwrf_mslp_wind_13L_10.png

NHC discussions from earlier today mentioned the possibility of increased shear as Laura nears the coast, but this was not brought up in the most recent one (03Z).

There’s a few pockets right along the coast currently of 25kt shear which makes sense. Not enough to hurt Laura but enough to keep her from bombing out

[Blinhart]

We are closer to landfall now.

so even if she strengthens more then expected we are locked in to Port Arthur area?

At this point it’s probably not going farther west if it strengthened. That was more for the last few days. And it’s going to touch Texas one way or the other instead of coming into SELA.

I would pretty much put landfall somewhere in between 25 miles west of the state line to 25 miles east. I don't see much of a shift from there.

[eastcoastFL]

so even if she strengthens more then expected we are locked in to Port Arthur area?

At this point it’s probably not going farther west if it strengthened. That was more for the last few days. And it’s going to touch Texas one way or the other instead of coming into SELA.

I would pretty much put landfall somewhere in between 25 miles west of the state line to 25 miles east. I don't see much of a shift from there.

I’d agree. This run is just a few miles into Louisiana. Could go either way

[Kingarabian]

I believe there's some shear right along the coast, so a more western track would avoid that shear for longer.

Actually I think more west would run right into the shear if it holds where it is now

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

We're going off topic here but if that shear is from the SW and is deep layer, as I said before it can for a certain amount of time enhance the system. See this happen with CPAC systems and most recently, Marco.

[Steve]

so even if she strengthens more then expected we are locked in to Port Arthur area?

At this point it’s probably not going farther west if it strengthened. That was more for the last few days. And it’s going to touch Texas one way or the other instead of coming into SELA.

I would pretty much put landfall somewhere in between 25 miles west of the state line to 25 miles east. I don't see much of a shift from there.

It could be closer than that - say 10 miles inside of Texas and 20 inside of LA. It’s a Cat 3/4. Also HWRF has the northern eyewall as the strongest. It will be in both states.

Down the line, Shreveport and Texarkana are the next bigger cities to see effects. Most everything along the Sabine River is smaller towns and villages. So you figure worst impacts are going to be from Lake Charles over to Vidor and Orange.

[TXWeatherMan]

Where was the UKMET tonight?

[ColdMiser123]

Strongest Euro run yet for this system:

[Steve]

Where was the UKMET tonight?

It’s a page or two back. I think I read that it crossed 94 and went to 94.1. Seems like a bit of a western outlier though someone said it moved right a little from a prior run.

European looks to be in line with most of the rest of the models. Low res shows 941 at 24 hours. Hopefully someone will post a landfall plot from a better version that Levi has.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2600&fh=24

[Steve]

Thanks Coldmiser. Close to a Cat 4 and a retirement is coming. Not lucky for those in its path, but this route is a lower population route than if it came in a little farther east or west.

[Wx_Warrior]

0z Euro hair east... Cameron Parish 942 mb

[Steve]

Nightcap model run for me is the 04z HRRR. It’s on board with a border area hit with a slight hint that it could come up north a little farther east. The 05z is halfway throuh, but since landfall is more than 18 hours out, we won’t get landfall modeling from it until 06z. There will be a couple runs after 06z, 07z and 08z before we are within the 18 hour landfall parameters

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2604&fh=18

[Highteeld]

Wild drop in pressure according to the euro, with a big shift east

[Highteeld]

[Cerlin]

I’m thankfully to see models shift away from a direct Galveston Bay hit, but I’m wondering if Laura’s rapid intensification the last few hours is going to cause it to shift to the west at all? I’m just worried the models aren’t taking that into account—though the Euro being near Cat 5 at landfall is quite scary and going more west has the chance to get eaten by some of that shear.

[kevin]

00z euro even stronger than the previous one. It even almost makes Laura a cat 5 before landfall with 247 kmh winds (154 mph). Slightly weakens to 221 kmh (137 mph) before landfall. Wind gusts at its peak are 330 kmh (205 mph), that's pretty much Irma level wind gusts if I recall correctly.

[Kingarabian]

00z EPS:

[hurricaneCW]

Too many people are overly focused on where the center will go. Given its size and strength we're talking impacts well away from the center especially the deadly surge impacts.

[Blinhart]

Too many people are overly focused on where the center will go. Given its size and strength we're talking impacts well away from the center especially the deadly surge impacts.

That's why I'm worried, I live at Exit 80 on I-10 (so mile marker 80 from Texas), I'm not next to the landfall area, but still well within the area that will be seeing a lot of bad weather.

[kevin]

06z ICON. Initialized too weak (989 mbar at 0 hours compared to 978 mbar at 03:00 UTC), but that's most likely gonna happen with most models now that Laura is intensifying fast. Important to note that ICON only brings it down to 972/973 mbar at 15 hours, even though it's already at that strength right now. Landfall at 24/27 hours, 964 mbar.