ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneEdouard]

I would not be surprised to see a low-end Category 5 out of this (but would probably weaken to a Category 4 before landfall due to those pockets of shear; HWRF and EURO are in good agreement of some weakening prior to landfall), although I think a robust Category 4 (pressure in the 930s) is most likely.

...LAURA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...FORECAST TO PRODUCE A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA LATER TODAY...
4:00 AM CDT Wed Aug 26
Location: 26.1°N 90.7°W
Moving: NW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 973 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph

And here we go...

This is going to catch many people waking up by surprise. I entirely agree with the NHC's forecast, but can't help but wonder why they didn't forecast this earlier, considering how many models began to consolidate around pressures indicative of a Category 4 hurricane.

[Jr0d]

We all are very eager for recon data, Laura may already be around 950mb.

While this intensification was expected, it is never good when this happens shortly before landfall. I hope those in the warning area took precautions yesterday. Waking up to a rapidly intensifying hurricane is quite unnerving.

[Blinhart]

...LAURA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...FORECAST TO PRODUCE A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA LATER TODAY...
4:00 AM CDT Wed Aug 26
Location: 26.1°N 90.7°W
Moving: NW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 973 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph

Yet they are still saying she will only get to 120, I don't know how they can be so conservative, especially with the way he worded it that there is no signs of this slowing down in strengthening.

130

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 26.1N 90.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 27.4N 92.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 29.7N 93.5W 105 KT 120 MPH...NEAR COAST
36H 27/1800Z 32.4N 93.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/0600Z 34.8N 92.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 28/1800Z 36.4N 91.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 29/0600Z 37.3N 87.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/0600Z 38.0N 74.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/0600Z 44.0N 60.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Yeah, my bad I missed the 130. I still think that is too low.

[Kingarabian]

All that deep red around the eye. Making of a classic hurricane... Stay safe everyone.

[KWT]

This is going to catch many people waking up by surprise. I entirely agree with the NHC's forecast, but can't help but wonder why they didn't forecast this earlier, considering how many models began to consolidate around pressures indicative of a Category 4 hurricane.

Yes there was enough evidence to go probably to 110/115kts yesterday evening given what the models were showing and also how the presentation obviously shifted to a more favourable one as per the more aggressive models were showing.

Truth is with this sort of system much like Michael, they will probably be playing catch up to an extent.

Classic large GoM hurricane, the type that normally does come in at a cat-4 from looking at history...its just at what end of that scale is it?

[Jr0d]

Yet they are still saying she will only get to 120, I don't know how they can be so conservative, especially with the way he worded it that there is no signs of this slowing down in strengthening.

115kts is about 132mph...

Even 120mph is still an incredibly intense wind.

[kevin]

It's probably been answered already, but I couldn't find it by reading the last few pages. When will recon arrive at Laura?

[PavelGaborik10]

I feel sick to my stomach right now...Laura is doing exactly what we've all feared she might do, perhaps even surpassing my worst expectations....

[Extratropical94]

It's probably been answered already, but I couldn't find it by reading the last few pages. When will recon arrive at Laura?

AF is in the storm, but not transmitting. NOAA just took off and should be in the storm an hour from now.

[PavelGaborik10]

https://i.imgur.com/Y7HIrBl.png

All that deep red around the eye. Making of a classic hurricane... Stay safe everyone.

Edit : double post

[PavelGaborik10]

https://i.imgur.com/Y7HIrBl.png

All that deep red around the eye. Making of a classic hurricane... Stay safe everyone.

Undoubtedly one of the best looking "category 2" hurricanes I've seen.

[Kingarabian]

It's probably been answered already, but I couldn't find it by reading the last few pages. When will recon arrive at Laura?

AF is in the storm, but not transmitting. NOAA just took off and should be in the storm an hour from now.

Is there a reason why they're not transmitting live publicly? Would love to watch the intensification in real time.

[cfisher]

Seems a little, uhhh unethical to broadcast "category 2" to the public when it's very clearly not. This is how you spawn conspiracy theories, etc.

[Chemmers]

think this will defo peak at a Cat 5 today maybe 900 to 920, will be very interesting what the recon finds

[USTropics]

 https://twitter.com/TheAstroNick/status/1298531654663905281




 https://twitter.com/TheAstroNick/status/1298513806281314304




Reference to dropsondes (looks like we'll be dropping 50 this run lol)

[PavelGaborik10]

Seems a little, uhhh unethical to broadcast "category 2" to the public when it's very clearly not. This is how you spawn conspiracy theories, etc.

We will see what recon shows

[bob rulz]

Seems a little, uhhh unethical to broadcast "category 2" to the public when it's very clearly not. This is how you spawn conspiracy theories, etc.

Relax. They can issue a special advisory if recon finds a significantly stronger storm. Also, what its intensity is right now really doesn't matter, it's 24 hours away and they're forecasting a cat 4 peak with cat 3 landfall. I think your claim is unjustified personally.

[Extratropical94]

It's probably been answered already, but I couldn't find it by reading the last few pages. When will recon arrive at Laura?

AF is in the storm, but not transmitting. NOAA just took off and should be in the storm an hour from now.

Is there a reason why they're not transmitting live publicly? Would love to watch the intensification in real time.

All we can do is guess. Possibly technical issues.

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1298506559136432128

[artist]

Those in the general are, please take heed and finish preparing now, or get out if you need to. Remember this from the forecast discussion -
It should be mentioned Laura is now a large hurricane, and wind,
storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center.
Do not use the cone graphic for any representation of these hazards,
it is just for the center uncertainty.


Our prayers are with you all.

[cfisher]

If ADT was online we would have a better picture. Not sure what's going on