ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Extratropical94]

Looks like they are successfully working on the issues, a test VDM and a new set of AF obs just came in!

854
URNT12 KNHC 260726
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 26/05:25:45Z
B. 00.00 deg N 000.00 deg E
C. NA
D. EXTRAP 0 mb
E. NA
F. NA
G. NA
H. NA
I. NA
J. 360 deg 0 kt
K. 360 deg 0 nm 00:00:00Z
L. NA
M. NA
N. NA
O. NA
P. 0 C / 0 m
Q. 0 C / 0 m
R. NA / NA
S. 12345 / 1
T. 0 / 0 nm
U. AFS-1 WXWXA TRAIN OB 00
PRELIMINARY, DO NOT RETRANSMIT
MAX FL WIND 0 KT 360 / 0 NM 15:25:45Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
*** test test test ***

do not reply or retransmit

this is only a system test

*** test test test ***
;

[GCANE]

Hot Towers zooming around a mile a minute.
5000+ CAPE Infeed.
What else can you say but Rapid Intensification.

[Buck]

Seems a little, uhhh unethical to broadcast "category 2" to the public when it's very clearly not. This is how you spawn conspiracy theories, etc.

Just because we watch satellite presentations and are on weather forums doesn’t mean we know better than NHC. Let’s calm down with claims like that. You gotta remember that NHC would catch even more sh*t for too high an advisory or forecast than they would for one that seems too conservative. I was surprised Laura was only 110mph at 5AM but considering the fact that satellite presentation can improve well before wind speeds rise and the fact that the wind field is expanding as well, it’s very possible that winds aren’t as high as “they look” yet. Also we haven’t had recon for hours. Keep all these things in mind before you call NHC unethical. That sounds very histrionic.

[supercane4867]

This will be quite high-end. Getting ridiculous now.

[HurricaneEdouard]

Seems a little, uhhh unethical to broadcast "category 2" to the public when it's very clearly not. This is how you spawn conspiracy theories, etc.

They're not going to upgrade it when recon is in the storm, investigating the intensity. Better to put out a special advisory for an upgrade than guess at an upgrade and then potentially have to downgrade it again if recon finds lower (which has happened in the past).

[rigbyrigz]

It did take NHC the longest time to even forecast 100+ mph impacts, while HWRF was way above (it's actually pulled back some.) I don't envy the forecasters; especially when there are 3-4 conflicting major models to consider. I sometimes think the far out intensity projections at a point in time should be a range, like 100-120, not simply 100, when this happens.

HWRF probably gained a little reliability stature this go-round. That being said, I appreciate the professionals there, here, and everywhere trying their best. Stay safe everyone. hope folks got it together in time whatever plan they went with.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1298547350718124032

[Jr0d]

Seems a little, uhhh unethical to broadcast "category 2" to the public when it's very clearly not. This is how you spawn conspiracy theories, etc.

Just because we watch satellite presentations and are on weather forums doesn’t mean we know better than NHC. Let’s calm down with claims like that. You gotta remember that NHC would catch even more sh*t for too high an advisory or forecast than they would for one that seems too conservative. I was surprised Laura was only 110mph at 5AM but considering the fact that satellite presentation can improve well before wind speeds rise and the fact that the wind field is expanding as well, it’s very possible that winds aren’t as high as “they look” yet. Also we haven’t had recon for hours. Keep all these things in mind before you call NHC unethical. That sounds very histrionic.

Let's say using the DVORAK estimation from the satellite and went with 130mph(just a guess) at 5am then recon finds the winds are 120mph, this could give the general public the impression the storm is weakening.

110 mph is an intense storm regardless. The NHC is the best in the world at making these calls, only a fool would question their judgement when a deadly storm is just off the coast.

[GCANE]

CIMSS down, NRL down, Recon down.
What's next?

[Extratropical94]

CIMSS down, NRL down, Recon down.
What's next?

Recon is up again. We should get an AF center pass in the next 20 minutes.

[cfisher]

Seems a little, uhhh unethical to broadcast "category 2" to the public when it's very clearly not. This is how you spawn conspiracy theories, etc.

Just because we watch satellite presentations and are on weather forums doesn’t mean we know better than NHC. Let’s calm down with claims like that. You gotta remember that NHC would catch even more sh*t for too high an advisory or forecast than they would for one that seems too conservative. I was surprised Laura was only 110mph at 5AM but considering the fact that satellite presentation can improve well before wind speeds rise and the fact that the wind field is expanding as well, it’s very possible that winds aren’t as high as “they look” yet. Also we haven’t had recon for hours. Keep all these things in mind before you call NHC unethical. That sounds very histrionic.

Let's say using the DVORAK estimation from the satellite and went with 130mph(just a guess) at 5am then recon finds the winds are 120mph, this could give the general public the impression the storm is weakening.

110 mph is an intense storm regardless. The NHC is the best in the world at making these calls, only a fool would question their judgement when a deadly storm is just off the coast.

We'll get the special advisory soon enough. Just odd they wouldn't go ahead and bump it to "major" level given the way the media covers these things. But it's not a big deal with recon on the way already.

I just know how slow people can be to react to stuff like this.

[GCANE]

CIMSS down, NRL down, Recon down.
What's next?

Recon is up again. We should get an AF center pass in the next 20 minutes.

Much thanks!

[artist]

Recon is finally coming in, try tropicalatlantic, if tropical tidbits isn’t reporting it yet. Or the nhc
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php Two planes are in there, just started, it looks like, af at 10,000 ft, noaa at 19,000 ft

670
URNT15 KNHC 260949
AF301 2113A LAURA HDOB 17 20200826
093930 2657N 09011W 6964 03138 0009 +111 +077 125063 065 049 000 00
094000 2655N 09012W 6970 03130 0002 +115 +064 128065 065 050 000 00
094030 2654N 09014W 6969 03130 0004 +110 +057 128066 066 051 000 00
094100 2653N 09015W 6967 03127 0004 +106 +063 128067 068 053 001 03
094130 2652N 09016W 6968 03124 0006 +100 +071 125068 069 052 001 00
094200 2650N 09018W 6967 03117 0010 +095 +078 126070 071 053 001 00
094230 2649N 09019W 6969 03115 0001 +098 +078 128071 072 053 001 00
094300 2648N 09021W 6967 03113 9990 +104 +072 129073 074 053 002 00
094330 2647N 09022W 6966 03110 9990 +097 +077 129076 078 057 000 00
094400 2645N 09023W 6967 03104 9995 +089 +079 128080 080 057 003 01
094430 2644N 09025W 6967 03092 0005 +084 //// 126079 080 058 005 01
094500 2643N 09026W 6969 03087 0004 +090 +090 124079 080 055 010 00
094530 2642N 09028W 6971 03077 9985 +094 +094 122074 077 054 011 03
094600 2640N 09029W 6969 03072 9985 +094 +094 124082 091 054 023 00
094630 2639N 09031W 6965 03072 9976 +098 +098 126091 094 058 028 00
094700 2638N 09032W 6960 03070 9958 +107 +107 132094 097 060 026 03
094730 2637N 09033W 6961 03049 9932 +115 +115 137091 096 063 029 00
094800 2636N 09034W 6967 03033 9918 +119 +119 135089 101 064 037 00
094830 2634N 09036W 6980 03011 9918 +119 +119 139084 087 066 049 00
094900 2633N 09037W 6989 02994 9921 +112 +112 136086 088 067 049 03
$$

[supercane4867]

990mb+ in the eyewall. Pressure gradient has tightened up big time.

[shiny-pebble]

Just woke up. This has the making of a monster. Very cold convection rotating around the eye, this is deepening fast

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[PavelGaborik10]

Just woke up. This has the making of a monster. Very cold convection rotating around the eye, this is deepening fast

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Unfortunately it appears Laura IS already a monster.

[artist]

[Kingarabian]

Looks like ADT page is broken.

[artist]

095230 2625N 09046W 6967 02928 9781 +132 +132 131073 094 091 025 00
095300 2624N 09048W 6965 02920 9770 +127 //// 124062 068 095 011 01
095330 2622N 09049W 6964 02917 9749 +120 +115 124051 056 095 009 00

[kevin]

Looks like they're going in right now, AF has an extrapolated surface pressure of 968.6 mbar on tropicalatlantic.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... _page=hdob