ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

NOAA plane appears to be turning to the SE after reaching the center.

[GCANE]

As of 07z the eyewall is still yet to be completed. Also the size of the eye needs to contract a good bit from here for an ERC to begin with.

https://i.imgur.com/UaUCdda.jpg

there is recon data showing a completed eyewall

Radar image is 3 hrs old also.
A lot can happen in 3 hrs during RI.

[PavelGaborik10]

Pressure looks to be 967mb.

Certainly not dropping the way I imagined considering climatology. Looks great, but certainly isn't undergoing RI at the moment if that's the case. (She was)

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1298573444070563841

[supercane4867]

Pressure looks to be 967mb.

Certainly not dropping the way I imagined considering climatology. Looks great, but certainly isn't undergoing RI at the moment.

The center pass 40 minute ago was at 969mb. It's been less than a hour and it already dropped 1.5-2mb. This is certainly undergoing RI.

[Kingarabian]

Pressure looks to be 967mb.

Certainly not dropping the way I imagined considering climatology. Looks great, but certainly isn't undergoing RI at the moment.

NHC had 973mb in the last update. It's been about 3 hours since. 2mb drop per hour is pretty steep if it continues at this rate it'll be in the 930s by landfall.

[KWT]

Sometimes RI hurricanes will undergo a rapid EWRC (literally could take 3-6hrs) and then utterly bomb once complete. A couple have even strengthened through EWRC. Given there is a decent ring of convection around the eyewall and there is a representation at FL of a second peak, however weak. So not impossible.

Extremely rare in the Atlantic from my experience.

Definately not common, but they do occur in systems that are similar to Laura in a very favourable set-up.

Still there is probably some ways to go before it becomes far more obvious that its happening.

Knocking on major status now I think, I wouldn't be shocked to see in the next few passes there be enough to warrant an upgrade.

[Kingarabian]

ADT:

2020AUG26 103000 4.9 965.6 87.4 4.9 5.8 6.9 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -27.66 -75.58 EYE -99 IR 10.6 26.27 91.04 SPRL GOES16 35.5

[NotoSans]

SFMR winds in eastern quadrant up to 97KT. Wouldn’t be surprised to see intermediate advisory going with 100 or even 105KT given the improving satellite presentation and a surface wind field catching up with rapidly falling central pressure.

[KWT]

Pressure looks to be 967mb.

Certainly not dropping the way I imagined considering climatology. Looks great, but certainly isn't undergoing RI at the moment.

The center pass 40 minute ago was at 969mb. It's been less than a hour and it already dropped 1.5-2mb. This is certainly undergoing RI.

As I said earlier IF it kept up this pace till landfall it will be comfortably into the 920s pressure and probably knocking on cat-5 door. Not saying thats going to happen (indeed given its larger size now its almost certainly going to have a period before landfall where it levels somewhat out.) but its undergoing RI for sure.

[Jr0d]

Buoy 42395 is now east and slightly north of the center, reporting 974.3 mb, winds 64kt gusting 89kt out of the SE 130° and quickly shifting more south. Earlier a 93kt gust was recorded.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42395

[HurricaneEdouard]

Looking like an annular hurricane on IR. There's nothing stopping Laura from bottoming out at MPI.

It isn't looking annular. Annular is one of the most widely misapplied terms on this board, and weather boards generally (often used to mean "symmetrical" generally); an annular hurricane features a donut of convection around a large eye, with no banding features and little to no convection outside of the central dense overcast. It also isn't the structure most associated with extreme intensity and you'd be unlikely to find an annular hurricane over the Gulf; rather, annular hurricanes take on their unique structure due to modest, rather than extremely warm, SSTs (typically between 25.4 and 28.5 C).

An annular hurricane looks like this:

(Super Typhoon Nestor)


(Hurricane Isabel)


(Hurricane Daniel)


It's a very specific structure.

[supercane4867]

EYE is warming at a decent pace on IR. ADT raw# 6.9

[PavelGaborik10]

Pressure looks to be 967mb.

Certainly not dropping the way I imagined considering climatology. Looks great, but certainly isn't undergoing RI at the moment.

The center pass 40 minute ago was at 969mb. It's been less than a hour and it already dropped 1.5-2mb. This is certainly undergoing RI.

Fair. Perhaps alcohol has gotten the best of me.

Still, I feel the continual pressure drop shows that Laura is not currently undergoing an EWRC. Not yet, at least.

[GCANE]

She's gotten west of the MS Delta.
Even though I can't get an image of MIMIC-TPW, I expect with this kind of MSLP and the infeed I see on WV, she has tapped into the EPAC moisture.
She will also be running into the high CAPE pool off the TX / LA coast.
The max potential is a high end Cat 4 in this neck of the woods.
Given the possible early EWRC, good chance she'll get there close to landfall.

[hurricaneCW]

Pressure looks to be 967mb.

Certainly not dropping the way I imagined considering climatology. Looks great, but certainly isn't undergoing RI at the moment if that's the case. (She was)

She meets the RI definition for the past 24hrs. If you don't think this has gone explosive then I don't know what to tell you.

[USTropics]

350 frames of Laura (about 16 hours). Saved it as a video this time:
[youtube]https://youtu.be/2EDMTVe09U8[/youtube]

[BYG Jacob]

I see somebody decided to drop Michael into the gulf in August

[PavelGaborik10]

Pressure looks to be 967mb.

Certainly not dropping the way I imagined considering climatology. Looks great, but certainly isn't undergoing RI at the moment.

The center pass 40 minute ago was at 969mb. It's been less than a hour and it already dropped 1.5-2mb. This is certainly undergoing RI.

Fair. Perhaps alcohol has gotten the best of me.

Still, I feel the continual pressure drop shows that Laura is not currently undergoing an EWRC. Not yet, at least.

[St0rmTh0r]

Incredible increase in size and structure the last 12 hours. This was expected with the favorable environment though. Now the question is how large and strong does she get?