ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1298577588227538945

[cfisher]

We're witnessing likely one of the all-time great storms of this century..

[Kingarabian]

The recent MW appearance and Dvorak appearance support a borderline Cat.4. Just need the winds to catch up.

[dexterlabio]

Rapid development just in the past few hours.

https://i.imgur.com/KlIdeXo.gif

Very Katrina-esque.

Is it still crazy to expect this becoming not just a Cat5, but hitting Dvorak number of 7.5 and up?

[NotoSans]

Latest reliable extrap MSLP down time ~961mb which means a remarkable 8mb drop over the past hour alone.

[NDG]

AF recon finds way lower pressure than its first pass, incredible.

110400 2613N 09119W 6978 02832 9613 +181 +100 026009 013 /// /// 03

[hipshot]

I believe CAPE values are high enough for Laura to maintain an annular structure. She's going to bottom out at MPI

What is "MPI"?

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/NOAA_HurrHunter/status/1298570879249444865

[kevin]

Wow, I've been looking at Laura's model forecasts for quite a while so I've seen my fair share of crazy intensification runs, but tbh I didn't expect Laura to look this good with still almost a day to go before landfall. Wouldn't be surprised to see this as a high end cat 4/low end cat 5 just before it makes landfall.

[KWT]

SSMIS pass:
It looks like Laura was in a ERC and it has completed it. The AMSR2 pass was about 2-3 hours old.

Quite possible, as I said earlier often these types of systems have a rapid cycle and then clears out the eye and bombs away into the 4/5 range.

Quite scary how much the eye has cleared out in just the last hour, probably going to see 3-5mbs per hour drops in the next 3-6hrs...

[GCANE]

I think they call this explosive intensification.

[Hayabusa]

I believe CAPE values are high enough for Laura to maintain an annular structure. She's going to bottom out at MPI

What is "MPI"?

Maximum Potential Intensity

[KWT]

AF recon finds way lower pressure than its first pass, incredible.

110400 2613N 09119W 6978 02832 9613 +181 +100 026009 013 /// /// 03

Just as the eye rapidly clears out. Probably about to see explosive intensification over the next 12hrs...

Winds may take an extra 3-6hrs to catch up with the pressure drop, as we saw with the large gulf hurricanes in 05.

[Kingarabian]

I believe CAPE values are high enough for Laura to maintain an annular structure. She's going to bottom out at MPI

What is "MPI"?

Maximum Potential Intensity
[url]https://i.imgur.com/dy5tHjY.png[url]

All the WPAC and EPAC folk in here today

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1298580475762454528

[GCANE]

60 mm/hr rain rate.
Core heating rapidly.
Lots of head room for intensifying more.

[Chemmers]

961 an 8 mb down in about an hour that IS crazy

[aspen]

I went to sleep after Laura was upgraded to an 80 kt Cat 1. I wake up to see an explosively intensifying 95 kt Cat 2 that looks to be on its way to 120+ kt.

Holy ****, I was not expecting that.

[PavelGaborik10]

Latest reliable extrap MSLP down time ~961mb which means a remarkable 8mb drop over the past hour alone.

Now we're getting to where I expected.

[Kingarabian]

Laura is like 5 hours ahead of of the 06z HWRF and HMON in terms of strengthening. This has the makings of a close call for Cat.5 by landfall considering those two are showing a upper end Cat.4 by landfall.