ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 552
- Joined: Mon Jun 30, 2008 9:31 pm
- Location: Jerusalem, Israel
- Contact:
Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
Still watching for track shifts SW of most guidance (closer to 12Z EPS), given upper air developments so far this morning.
https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1298577283796602880
https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1298577283796602880
4 likes
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 552
- Joined: Mon Jun 30, 2008 9:31 pm
- Location: Jerusalem, Israel
- Contact:
Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
My thoughts on potential Houston metro area and Galveston impacts:
https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1298582554862333954
https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1298582554862333954
6 likes
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15981
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
Looking at the Euro and the GFS, they show strong SW upper level winds probably associated with the jet as well as the trough that will steer it close to the TX/LA border. If this shear does not weaken the system, these winds could end up pushing strong effects well in land further away from the center. Very tricky storm.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Wed Aug 26, 2020 6:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
-
- Admin
- Posts: 20010
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
Water Vapor loop showing upper level conditions.
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=continental-southconus-08-200-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=continental-southconus-08-200-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15981
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
ADT and Recon estimates continue to be on the same page in terms of pressure:
2020AUG26 110000 5.1 961.8 92.4 5.1 5.8 6.9 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -26.66 -75.63 EYE 12 IR 10.6 26.25 91.25 COMBO GOES16 35.6
1 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
Hayabusa wrote:hipshot wrote:cfisher wrote:I believe CAPE values are high enough for Laura to maintain an annular structure. She's going to bottom out at MPI
What is "MPI"?
Maximum Potential Intensity
https://i.imgur.com/dy5tHjY.png
30C SSTs all the way to the coast is more than enough to maintain its strengthening even if it was to be shallow warm waters, is moving fast enough.
1 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2434
- Age: 32
- Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL → Scandinavia
Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
The fact that the ECMWF/GFS are underestimating the meridional extent of the mid-level ridge also implies that there will be less westerly shear, given that Laura is less likely to turn NNW and N—that is, encounter higher net VWS—until several hours after landfall. That is why the 06Z HMON/HWRF output shows Laura being steady state or even intensifying slightly at the time of landfall. Unfortunately, this means that a borderline Category-4/-5 hurricane is becoming increasingly likely at the time of landfall near the TX/LA border. Note that the HMON/HWRF also handled Michael and Dorian far better than most of the other guidance in terms of intensity.
5 likes
CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
Equatorial outflow channel is still very pronounced at the time of landfall on 06z HWRF run. Very unlikely that there will be any weakening prior to landfall. Both HMON and HWRF are showing an intensifying at landfall scenario.


Last edited by supercane4867 on Wed Aug 26, 2020 6:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
10 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1794
- Joined: Wed Mar 03, 2010 6:20 am
- Location: Toms River, NJ
Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
Unless the shear is very strong it'll have limited effects on a very large major hurricane. An EWRC is much more likely to cause the storm to weaken prior to landfall.
4 likes
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 2651
- Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
- Location: Florida State University
Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
100 frames saved (large file, may take a few to load). The frequency of gravity waves emitting from the center of Laura almost give this an optical illusion effect:


9 likes
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15981
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
Looks like the NOAA plane is about to do a SW-NE pass.
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
Given current trends I think NHC needs a special advisory to revise short-term intensity forecast.
4 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
Center dropsonde 964mb with 8kt winds. A significant drop since the last fix by the AF plane(969mb)
1 likes
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15981
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
NDG wrote:Hayabusa wrote:hipshot wrote:What is "MPI"?
Maximum Potential Intensity
https://i.imgur.com/dy5tHjY.png
30C SSTs all the way to the coast is more than enough to maintain its strengthening even if it was to be shallow warm waters, is moving fast enough.
And all those "Marco's cold wake may affect Laura" comments on social media don't look too good right now. The GOM waters are something else.
2 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- Kazmit
- Category 5
- Posts: 2124
- Age: 22
- Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
- Location: Williamsburg, VA / Bermuda
Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
I am in absolute shock of what I just woke up to. 

3 likes
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- HurricaneEnzo
- Category 2
- Posts: 739
- Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:18 pm
- Location: Newport, NC (Hurricane Alley)
Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
Dual outflow channels, anti-cyclone overhead, bathtub warm waters, and moist air. Nothing about this setup inspires any kind of hopefulness tbh.
1 likes
Bertha 96' - Fran 96' - Bonnie 98' - Dennis 99' - Floyd 99' - Isabel 03' - Alex 04' - Ophelia 05' - Irene 11' - Arthur 14' - Matthew 16' - Florence 18' - Dorian 19' - Isaias 20' (countless other tropical storms and Hurricane swipes)
I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!
I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!
- p1nheadlarry
- Category 2
- Posts: 672
- Age: 33
- Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2014 2:42 pm
- Location: SR County FL
Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
cfisher wrote:Serious question, what's stopping it from bottoming out? There's some shear near the coast but that's about it
MPI has ~920-930 in this region, but IIRC that only takes into account SST and not themocline depth which is also important, though maybe not as much with its brisk movement. Also I'm not sure how it takes into account the 'exhaust' temperature which is in theory as far from the center as possible, and also environmental pressure. So shear as it approaches land and some reorganization could limit it's peak intensity, but note the HWRF and other models have brought Laura to ~940 so not terribly far off.
0 likes
--;->#GoNoles--;->.
- BensonTCwatcher
- Category 5
- Posts: 1046
- Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:11 pm
- Location: Southport NC
Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
Pressure drops coming in are just scary, In looking at HWRF and Euro runs, they are showing pressures in the 930-937mb range at landfall. Not really far to go at this rate to surpass that. I would add though that we are getting into the areas where few storms can go. Even though we have the conditions, it's still rare overall to get this kind of intensity. It could very well be that Laura is heading to peak intensity now and that would be good news in that we could see weakening due to structural issues on the final approach to land. Having been in many hurricanes and some tyhpoons, the actual intensity and ferocity seen is quite different in a storm strengthening on impact. Need a bit of luck over the next few hours.
2 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2434
- Age: 32
- Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL → Scandinavia
Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
Top five strongest Louisiana landfalling hurricanes, 1851–2019*
Technically, Camille (1969) did not make landfall in LA, but produced Cat-5 conditions near the MS Delta.
- 1856 #1 – 130 knots – “Last Island”
- 1893 #10 – 115 knots – “Chenière Caminada”
- 1965 Betsy – 115 knots
- 1855 #5 – 110 knots – “Middle Gulf Shore”
- 1860 #1 – 110 knots
Technically, Camille (1969) did not make landfall in LA, but produced Cat-5 conditions near the MS Delta.
Last edited by Shell Mound on Wed Aug 26, 2020 6:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
4 likes
CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
NotoSans wrote:Given current trends I think NHC needs a special advisory to revise short-term intensity forecast.
The intermediate advisory is due any minute. They can make that change with it.
4 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests