Central Atlantic Tropical Wave (Is Invest 91L)

[LarryWx]

1. The 12Z EPS remains rather active though not nearly the most active run.

2. Updated pic of the African wave: it looks to move off by tomorrow:

[TheStormExpert]

1. The 12Z EPS remains rather active though not nearly the most active run.

2. Updated pic of the African wave: it looks to move off by tomorrow:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/europe/images/irnm7.GIF

Do you mind posting a graphic of the 12z EPS tracks? Thanks!

[TheStormExpert]

Models especially the GFS and Euro have like I said numerous times been downright HORRIBLE with forecasting TC genesis this season especially with storms forming from AEW’s. Would be shocked if this doesn’t develop into Nana at some point but it may take its sweet time in doing so until about 50-60°W. Could be yet another problem for the U.S. as we head into Labor Day Weekend in less than two weeks.

[SFLcane]

1. The 12Z EPS remains rather active though not nearly the most active run.

2. Updated pic of the African wave: it looks to move off by tomorrow:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/europe/images/irnm7.GIF

Do you mind posting a graphic of the 12z EPS tracks? Thanks!

[AutoPenalti]

Spread is a lot further north now. That’s how it starts, then as we get closer in time, the spread starts to trend south until eventually we zero in on something.

[SFLcane]

Spread is a lot further north now. That’s how it starts, then as we get closer in time, the spread starts to trend south until eventually we zero in on something.

Na... it’s all over the place. Some in the gulf,Carib

[chaser1]

I agree the pattern looks quite dangerous when you look at the progged 500MB pattern as depicted by all globals. But plenty of time for the guidance to show a trough to turn any storm the may develop out of this wave. First let's see if we get some development. I think chances are we will see development with this wave.

Agree on all points. I'd guess there's a reasonable chance that development with this wave could be slow to occur. Persistence isn't everything but there are reasons why Eastern MDR waves this year have been slow to develop and end up tracking further west. Minus any strong model support to suggest otherwise, it's easy to assume that we'll continue to see a continuation of genesis occurring closer to the Lesser Antilles (or even further west) as we head into peak season. I am curious to see if our typical East Atlantic wave-train will be like other years around mid to late October, with E. Atlantic waves beginning to sludge across the ITCZ at a lightning pace of around 5 mph lol? In a year like this, we might see 2-4 late far eastern MDR T.S.'s that quickly develop but immediately recurve to the NW. Same way though, Oct and Nov could bring an exaggerated number of W. Caribbean & GOM late season storms as well.

[TheStormExpert]

Another HUGE SAL surge coming off Africa! Maybe this explains why EPS is less bullish on this wave.



Not to mention mid-level dry air has increased.

[TheStormExpert]

Well the 00z GFS finally shows development from this wave in the BoC in 276hrs.

Let’s see what future runs show.

[LarryWx]

0Z EPS with again lots of activity near/over FL, in the Gulf and near Bahamas/off the SE coast, and off the E coast of the US near the end of the first week in Sep. from the wave now emerging from Africa: buckle up again, this time for Hurricane Grandma?

[St0rmTh0r]

0Z EPS with again lots of activity near/over FL, in the Gulf and near Bahamas/off the SE coast, and off the E coast of the US near the end of the first week in Sep. from the wave now emerging from Africa: buckle up again, this time for Hurricane Grandma?

https://i.imgur.com/LQyYmeE.png

With Laura likely to landfall as a major hurricane its game on for the real hurricane season! I'd move to my summer getaway up north of I lived down south

[SFLcane]

0Z EPS with again lots of activity near/over FL, in the Gulf and near Bahamas/off the SE coast, and off the E coast of the US near the end of the first week in Sep. from the wave now emerging from Africa: buckle up again, this time for Hurricane Grandma?

https://i.imgur.com/LQyYmeE.png

Actually it’s been decreasing every run. Maybe 15-20% of members now.

[AutoPenalti]

0Z EPS with again lots of activity near/over FL, in the Gulf and near Bahamas/off the SE coast, and off the E coast of the US near the end of the first week in Sep. from the wave now emerging from Africa: buckle up again, this time for Hurricane Grandma?

https://i.imgur.com/LQyYmeE.png

Actually it’s been decreasing every run. Maybe 15-20% of members now.

There's not much talk about this wave on twitter, albeit everyone is focused on Laura.

[Cpv17]

0Z EPS with again lots of activity near/over FL, in the Gulf and near Bahamas/off the SE coast, and off the E coast of the US near the end of the first week in Sep. from the wave now emerging from Africa: buckle up again, this time for Hurricane Grandma?

https://i.imgur.com/LQyYmeE.png

Actually it’s been decreasing every run. Maybe 15-20% of members now.

It’ll probably pick back up in a few days once the AEW starts seeing more favorable conditions further west.

[TheStormExpert]

0Z EPS with again lots of activity near/over FL, in the Gulf and near Bahamas/off the SE coast, and off the E coast of the US near the end of the first week in Sep. from the wave now emerging from Africa: buckle up again, this time for Hurricane Grandma?

https://i.imgur.com/LQyYmeE.png

Actually it’s been decreasing every run. Maybe 15-20% of members now.

They weren’t too bullish on Laura and look at her now! They’ll probably pick back up once it reaches or passes 50-60°W. Seems most Tropical Waves are struggling in the Tropical Atlantic thanks to SAL and mid-level dry air. If that’s the case this is likely another U.S. threat?

[EquusStorm]

That's really been the trend lately, look imposing over Africa then squeak into the Atlantic with decreasing support until nearing the Lesser Antilles. Paints a really ominous picture of a continuation of the west-loaded season we're experiencing so far as long as dry air keeps everything from intensifying til it's too late to recurve in time.

[AnnularCane]

0Z EPS with again lots of activity near/over FL, in the Gulf and near Bahamas/off the SE coast, and off the E coast of the US near the end of the first week in Sep. from the wave now emerging from Africa: buckle up again, this time for Hurricane Grandma?

Poor Nana is going to be teased about her name relentlessly, isn't she.

[Cpv17]

I have a question guys and this probably isn’t the right place to ask this but I was wondering how long would it take for water to recover after a major passes through it?

[SFLcane]

Icon much weaker just a broad low over PR. Models generally what ever weak support there was has dwindled.

[StPeteMike]

I have a question guys and this probably isn’t the right place to ask this but I was wondering how long would it take for water to recover after a major passes through it?

It depends on where the water is. Around the Gulf and Bahamas area, some areas in the Caribbean as well, it will take a few days to get the temperatures back to where it was before any storm. This is because the waters there are more shallow than the deep waters of the Atlantic. Even so, the Gulf will still be in reasonable temperature range to allow another storm to go over it without weakening, maybe just not such rapid strengthening like with Laura. By this storm reaches the Gulf, if that’s where it ends up, the temperatures will be back to where they were before Marco and Laura.