ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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shiny-pebble
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5401 Postby shiny-pebble » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:07 am

Convection firing around the eyewall and the eye is warming

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5402 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:08 am

NDG wrote:
Nawtamet wrote:Judging from the IR presentation, it seems she's losing steam. There are warmer temperature colors appearing on the eyewall.


Nonsense, its pressure continues to drop steadily.


All that appears to be happening is that as the sun rises cloud temperature warm up, pretty typical after D-Max. As I was just said it's got great symmetry right now and the eyes curly establishing itself given the rapid drop in pressure seen in the last 3 hours
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5403 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:08 am

shiny-pebble wrote:
GCANE wrote:VDM
960mb
Closed circular eye 28 nm wide
Wasn't it elliptical/oval shaped before? Is it easier for it to intensify with a circular eye?

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Yes, Yes
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5404 Postby NotoSans » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:09 am

The last three center sondes from AF Hurricane Hunters are:
0959Z: 969mb/3kt
1103Z: 964mb/8kt
1225Z: 960mb/7kt

Which yields a pressure drop of 9-10mb over 2.5 hours, or 3.6-4mb per hour.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5405 Postby kevin » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:09 am

6 new pages in this thread within the hour. That's when you know something big is happening.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5406 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:10 am

120kt+ FL wind from NOAA plane holy s***
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5407 Postby cfisher » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:11 am

Does anyone have an ADT estimate? CMISS website is down still
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5408 Postby LSU Saint » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:11 am

What are the chances this effects Houston still? Sitting at work and my nerves are pretty high
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5409 Postby aspen » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:12 am

NotoSans wrote:The last three center sondes from AF Hurricane Hunters are:
0959Z: 969mb/3kt
1103Z: 964mb/8kt
1225Z: 960mb/7kt

Which yields a pressure drop of 9-10mb over 2.5 hours, or 3.6-4mb per hour.

If that rate continues, Laura will near 915 mbar in 12 hours :double:
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5410 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:12 am

No doubt winds are playing a rapid catch up to these pressure drops and it's very close to a buzz saw appearance. Impressive development over night.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5411 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:12 am

cfisher wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
cfisher wrote:Laura is in a league of her own with this rate of deepening and the size of the eye


You ain’t kidding. The speed at which she’s developed is simply amazing.

Also looks pretty annular. If it was a buzzsaw shape before, there's definitely way more symmetry now.


This would be an amazing storm to track in the open Ocean. Who knows what could happen if land weren’t ahead.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5412 Postby cfisher » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:13 am

We should have known this would inevitably happen when it managed to strengthen on top of Hispaniola.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5413 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:13 am

LSU Saint wrote:What are the chances this effects Houston still? Sitting at work and my nerves are pretty high



I’ll say this, the odds are shrinking in your favor at the moment. But it’s not over yet.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5414 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:13 am

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5415 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:13 am

Current intensity has likely increased to 110kt.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5416 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:14 am

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5417 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:14 am

cfisher wrote:We should have known this would inevitably happen when it managed to strengthen on top of Hispaniola.


And Cuba and PR. This Laura is a force. The models that had her opening into a wave need to be tweaked a bit.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5418 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:14 am

There might be just a hair of westerly shear impacting the center at upper levels.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5419 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:15 am




That NE Quad is a beast.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5420 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:15 am

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