ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[USTropics]

Laura is coming into radar range now, here are some links to use as this approaches the coast:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/radar.html

[abajan]

Mark Sudduth's morning update.

[Kazmit]

Cat 4 winds on this pass through the NE eyewall?

[Do_For_Love]

AF pass extrapolated 952.9 mb. The instrument has a low bias, but 956 seems reasonable

Well, she was at 963 I think for the 8 AM update, right? That would be about 6mbar drop in 2 hours, very strong intensification going on right now. I guess we already know that though lol.

[tiger_deF]

I was hoping that Laura would stay small and confine devastating damage to a small portion of the relatively sparsely populated LA coast, but she has been expanding her hurricane wind radius appreciably since last night

[txwatcher91]

954 mb wow 6 mb since last pass

That's the extrap measurement, on the last pass extrap showed 957 mb, but it still is a nice drop.

Last pass was 957.5, this pass is 952.9 so almost a 5mb drop in the extrap in one pass.

[GCANE]

VDM
959 mb
Closed circular eye 25 nm wide

[cfisher]

raw ADT estimates must be over 7 right?

[Beef Stew]

Its entirely possible we still get a category 5

I know, but it's more likely a Michael category 5. If it had another day it would be looking more like a Dorian category 5.

Anything over major hurricane fore winds is catastrophic, especially over category 5. Wind damage doesn't scale linearly and suffers from diminishing returns at extreme speeds

This. Michael slabbed residential areas. Dorian slabbed residential areas. It doesn't really matter that Dorian was stronger from a damage perspective considering properties in Marsh Harbor and Mexico beach were both equally wiped off the map. That's the basis for the argument against a 'Category 6'- once you get past the threshold for a Category 5, the damage is often total.

[SouthDadeFish]

If you are reading this and live in a mandatory evacuation zone in the path of Laura, please get the heck out. Right now. Listen to your local emergency management. One does not survive being in a location with a 15 foot storm surge. The rate of intensification observed the last 24 hours is simply terrible.

[USTropics]

Radar loop:


Radar links: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/radar.html

[northjaxpro]

Integrated helicity continuing to increase.
Wrapped around the core.
Violent Tornado Parameter


https://i.imgur.com/D9RE7gZ.gif

https://i.imgur.com/hNPppx8.gif

https://i.imgur.com/d9sObT3.gif

Going to be one hell of a tornado outbreak

Yeah, that is the other dangerous aspect of this whole nightmare. The quick spawning tornadoes as Laùra treks inland are going to catch many off guard. Just overall as bad a situation you will find with such a powerful landfalling tropical cyclone like this one .

And the storm surge... it will be seveŕe at the coast.. My heart and prayers to all in the path of this monster!!

[AutoPenalti]

That's ONE EXPANSIVE CDO. Jesus.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Eye getting closer to being cleared out.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... roduct=vis

[Highteeld]

The CDO warming a tad is a sign of intensification in this phase of the storm. It's due to a complete eyewall -- moisture/heat fluxes are more evenly distributed around the eyewall, leading to symmetrical convection on IR, leading to less hot towers, and thus slightly warmer convection. The sun is also coming up over the storm, warming the upper levels a bit. Very cold convection will likely resume right before landfall after sunset, with frictional effects adding to the updraft potential.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like public comms have gone out again with the hh. NOAA still reporting.

[Blown Away]

Unfortunately those new homes built on very tall stilts after Ike/Rita in Holly Beach, Louisiana are going to get a head on test.

[GCANE]

She may start to throttle down.
Moving into a bit lower Theta-E.

[KBBOCA]

What are the chances this effects Houston still? Sitting at work and my nerves are pretty high

Saw this tweet from Eric Berger @SpaceCityWX

 https://twitter.com/SpaceCityWX/status/1298589861222453248

[sweetpea]

If you are reading this and live in a mandatory evacuation zone in the path of Laura, please get the heck out. Right now. Listen to your local emergency management. One does not survive being in a location with a 15 foot storm surge. The rate of intensification observed the last 24 hours is simply terrible.

Just spoke to a good friend of mine in Beaumont, they are packing up and heading out. I am so relieved, they are usually the ones that stay behind and ride it out. Prayers for everyone in the path of this storm. So scary!