ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wx98]

10:00 AM CDT Wed Aug 26
Location: 27.0°N 92.0°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 956 mb
Max sustained: 125 mph

[Kazmit]

Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...LAURA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT...
...ONLY A FEW HOURS REMAIN TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 92.0W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

[mrbagyo]

[supercane4867]

NHC expected landfall intensity bumped up to 125kt.

[BensonTCwatcher]

If Laura's pressure continue to drop at a rate ~3 mb/hr, with around 15-16 hrs left before landfall, even if it drops to 1-2 mb/hour, 930sh mb is not out of the of the question at or before landfall.
IMO.

Euro and HWRF were three this morning with 930-ish looks like most models were in the ballpark.

[TexasSam]

Has anyone noticed that light band of rain west of Houston moving west? Could that give Laura more room to go west?

[3090]

Good grief.

https://twitter.com/BrennanMatherne/status/1298594141249699840

They are experiencing flooding from laura already?

That is roughly 200 miles from the center of Laura as the crow flies. It is to the ENE of Laura. She is pushing a massive amount of water ahead and all around her. UNREAL!

[EquusStorm]

125kt peak from the careful/conservative NHC is yikes.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

If the intensity forecast holds, Laura would be the strongest hurricane in terms of maximum sustained winds to hit Louisiana since Camille in 1969.

[GCANE]

Dryline convection firing SE of Houston.
She's going to take out any dry air on approach.

[3090]

Up to 125mph winds with a new expectation of 145mph at landfall. A 20 foot storm surge with 25 foot wave action. A tsunami.

[MarioProtVI]

At this point I think 150-155 mph is a good possibility.

[Do_For_Love]

Wow, up to 145 mph on the advisory. A run at 5 really isn't out of the question. Unbelievable, man...

[bjackrian]

The Lake Charles NWS discussion this morning is terse and to the point (this is all of it):

000
FXUS64 KLCH 261109
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
609 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

.DISCUSSION...All eyes on Laura as the storm continues to
intensify. Models remain clustered in a landfall over southwest
Louisiana or the upper Texas coast tonight as a major hurricane.
Warnings are out. Be safe.

[HurricaneEnzo]

It appears at this point the die has been cast. Even if it doesn't strengthen anymore (which appears HIGHLY unlikely) this is going to be one for the record books and talked about for decades to come. Absolute monster status with no signs of slowing.

[AnnularCane]

Good grief.

https://twitter.com/BrennanMatherne/status/1298594141249699840

They are experiencing flooding from laura already?

That is roughly 200 miles from the center of Laura as the crow flies. It is to the ENE of Laura. She is pushing a massive amount of water ahead and all around her. UNREAL!

I remember Ike flooded the LA coast on his way to Texas, including the north shore of Lake Pontchartrain.

[eastcoastFL]

Lakes Charles local forecast

[supercane4867]

Storm surge level is likely to exceed Rita by a considerable margin.

[Do_For_Love]

Up to 125mph winds with a new expectation of 145mph at landfall. A 20 foot storm surge with 25 foot wave action. A tsunami.

I feel like this storm is gonna make some geographic changes to southern Louisiana at this point. They're already losing like a football field of land a day...I feel like this is gonna speed up that process in some places

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[cjrciadt]

He is going to Holly Beach to livestream
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KP1Ee4F7q-o