ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

Maybe leveling off.
Helicity has backed down quite a bit.

I might be wrong, but it doesn't look to be slowing down to me. Appearance seems much more classic of a major hurricane than an hour or so ago.

[Highteeld]

Giant storm

[supercane4867]

Hi folks, have not been tracking this one closely but I see a lot of comments to the effect of historic storm surge. Laura is a powerful storm, but at first glance doesn't look *historic* in a literal sense, partly due to the active era we've seen recently. Is something specific driving the large storm surge numbers and dire predictions for this one?

Hope this doesn't come off as downplaying anything....

A combination of factors including the sheer size of her inner core, movement speed, rate of intensification, and the surge prone nature of the landfall region. The most important takeaway is that she's not done yet...a potential sub-930mb storm making landfall on the Gulf coast is definitely historic.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

This is an awful situation all the way around. Having been through bad storms as most here have I feel so badly for our coastal neighbors. At this point I hope most are, and have been able to leave, and we all need to be praying for our Brothers & Sisters.

[chris_fit]

Heading to Lake Charles, LA from Houston.

This is the 15th hurricane chase and is going to be yet another big one.

You all are outstanding pro/amateur mets. Lots of respect for you.

Chuck

Godspeed. Do you have stream/way we can follow you?

[Beef Stew]

Hi folks, have not been tracking this one closely but I see a lot of comments to the effect of historic storm surge. Laura is a powerful storm, but at first glance doesn't look *historic* in a literal sense, partly due to the active era we've seen recently. Is something specific driving the large storm surge numbers and dire predictions for this one?

Hope this doesn't come off as downplaying anything....

This area of the gulf coast is exceptionally prone to storm surge due to the curvature of the coastline and low lying coastal zone. Rita and Ike both had significant surges in the same region. Laura's surge will in all likelihood be larger than Rita's, and could push as far as 30 miles inland (if some estimates are correct) due to the topography. Additionally, if Laura were to make landfall as a 145 mph storm (as is currently forecasted), it would tie her for the 10th most intense landfalling storm ConUS in terms of sustained wind speed. The rate of her intensification (in terms of pressure drop) over the past 12 hours is also exceptionally rare for a storm with an eye of her size.

[artist]

082
URNT12 KNHC 261433
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132020
A. 26/14:04:00Z
B. 26.67 deg N 091.79 deg W
C. 700 mb 2734 m
D. 958 mb
E. NA
F. CLOSED
G. C26
H. 91 kt
I. 314 deg 14 nm 14:00:00Z
J. 043 deg 95 kt
K. 313 deg 17 nm 13:59:00Z
L. 104 kt
M. 057 deg 22 nm 14:11:00Z
N. 150 deg 121 kt
O. 057 deg 22 nm 14:11:00Z
P. 12 C / 3055 m
Q. 20 C / 3051 m
R. 9 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
U. AF301 2113A LAURA OB 30
MAX FL WIND 121 KT 057 / 22 NM 14:11:00Z

[abajan]

It's probably been mentioned before (too many pages of comments to check), but at the bottom of the 10 AM Discussion it states "85 mph" without "...inland", which leads one to think that Laura will somehow weaken to 85 mph before landfall.

EDIT: Never mind. It's been corrected.

[catskillfire51]

https://i.imgur.com/eukrJ8y.png

Another few more eyes and we should see her turn to the north/northwest more

Where are you getting that?

I pay for an allisonhouse maps subscription during hurricane season.

[dukeblue219]

Hi folks, have not been tracking this one closely but I see a lot of comments to the effect of historic storm surge. Laura is a powerful storm, but at first glance doesn't look *historic* in a literal sense, partly due to the active era we've seen recently. Is something specific driving the large storm surge numbers and dire predictions for this one?

Hope this doesn't come off as downplaying anything....

With a predicted surge of 20 feet, I would say that is historic in a literal sense for this area. Why? Cat 4 hurricane heading N-NW, at a decent clip, and at high tide ... think of the push of water on the east side of the storm center.

Got it. Thanks!

It's crazy that we've seen so many majors make landfall over this cycle that a forecast landfall at 145mph doesn't immediately strike me as historic anymore.

This area of the gulf coast is exceptionally prone to storm surge due to the curvature of the coastline and low lying coastal zone. Rita and Ike both had significant surges in the same region. Laura's surge will in all likelihood be larger than Rita's, and could push as far as 30 miles inland (if some estimates are correct) due to the topography.

Thanks as well. I'm an East Coaster and not too familiar with the Texas/LA coastline.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Watching the outflow for a sign of the turn i.e. flattening . Maybe just a hint of it on WV loop, but will have to be turning before 92.3 Longitude mark. Nail biting..

[wx98]

Poor Cameron and Holly Beach are going to get smacked and drowned

[SouthernBreeze]

It's probably been mentioned before (too many pages of comments to check), but at the bottom of the 10 AM Discussion it states "85 mph" without "...inland", which leads one to think that Laura will somehow weaken to 85 mph before landfall.

EDIT: Never mind. It's been corrected.

Says "INLAND" now

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 27.0N 92.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 28.5N 93.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 31.0N 93.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 28/0000Z 33.7N 93.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/1200Z 35.8N 92.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 29/0000Z 37.2N 89.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 29/1200Z 37.6N 83.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/1200Z 40.0N 70.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/1200Z 48.0N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[catskillfire51]

The AF recon plane finally started transmitting but didn't show the most important part...

[aspen]

Maybe leveling off.
Helicity has backed down quite a bit.

I might be wrong, but it doesn't look to be slowing down to me. Appearance seems much more classic of a major hurricane than an hour or so ago.

Convection is warmer than earlier this morning, but that’s due to the eye clearing out and the Sun warming the cloud tops. Laura is still exceptionally symmetrical with an eye that continues to get clearer.

[Gums]

Salute!

Tnx for photos, Benson.

It ain't the absolute height of the surge, but the proximity to the coast and the topographics of the seabed. Hence, La and MS get really high surges compared to we Panhandle folks. Also, remember that Mexico Beach had Cape San Blas to buffer the water just a bit. Height of the surge not even close to Katrina or Camille. A classmate lived half mile from the coast at Pass Christian and had the 25-30 foot surge. The trees were thick and he has little outside damage but his second floor had water to the ceiling.

Holly and Cameron are gonna get 15-20 feet minimum with 20-30 foot waves on top! Dat's what removes all but the slab and pipes sticking up. The wind just cleans up the debris.

See pics some of us have posted of what some settlements will resemble Thursday night.

Gums sends...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1298641639523532800

[shiny-pebble]

Convection firing on the northern eyewall it seems

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/ChrissyKohler/status/1298639606494175235



 https://twitter.com/KaptMands/status/1298641954742456321



 https://twitter.com/Ty14561/status/1298641889546174467

[LSU Saint]

Is this turning now or is still on a beeline to Houston? Nervous about that turn