ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
wx98
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1383
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 9:24 pm

Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5681 Postby wx98 » Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:37 am

FLpanhandle91 wrote:
wx98 wrote:
MGC wrote:Looking at the long range radar loop out of Lake Charles, it appears a moat is forming around the eye of Laura. Possible eye wall replacement cycle soon?.......MGC

I see that as well. Let’s see if they find an outer wind maxima here in a little bit.


Could be the nature of the radar beam being tilted to the 25,0000+ foot level at that distance being obscured by those cloud tops and then picking up the subsequent higher tops around the eye? It appears that the apparent most feature is filling in on radar now.


Thank you! I actually had this thought as well after I posted about it having more to do with the radar beam angle.
0 likes   

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5682 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:37 am

Image
14 likes   

O Town
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5205
Age: 52
Joined: Wed Sep 07, 2005 9:37 pm
Location: Orlando, Florida 28°35'35"N 81°22'55"W

Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5683 Postby O Town » Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:37 am

CronkPSU wrote:Not sure it matters much with this kind of storm surge but will it be approaching land fall at low or high tide?

High tide 1:14am At Sabine Pass
2 likes   

#ORLANDOSTRONG

User avatar
PTPatrick
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1831
Joined: Sat Jun 12, 2004 8:38 am

Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5684 Postby PTPatrick » Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:39 am

One interesting thing if this strengthens until landfall and hits as a high end cat 4 or 5 is that it and Michael should put to rest the notion that storms always weaken on approach to the northern gulf coast. Over the last 100 years of good records, they largely have. But not always. With climate change and recent trends I wouldn’t be amazed if we see more landfalling 4s and even 5s in areas where storms have usually weakened prior to landfall.
4 likes   

User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1649
Age: 34
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper, AL
Contact:

Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5685 Postby EquusStorm » Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:39 am

I only remember very few explicit category five forecasts in the Gulf; quite rare so understandably infrequently forecast. Gustav 2008 was one of the few forecast to reach c5 but it was already rapidly intensifying at 150 in the Caribbean and really only Cuba destroying the inner core slowed it down.
0 likes   
Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

BigB0882
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2284
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Contact:

Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5686 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:39 am

If memory serves me correctly, Michael wasn't even classified as a Category 5 until they did their re-evaluation later on.
12 likes   

Michele B
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1114
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2016 8:08 am
Location: SWFL

Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5687 Postby Michele B » Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:39 am

Beef Stew wrote:
wkwally wrote:I am hearing a lot of talk in here about Laura becoming a cat 5 hurricane what are the thoughts on the NHC changing their forcast to reflect this?


Very low. In my opinion, the only case this would happen would be if recon found undeniable evidence of Laura attaining category 5 intensity just prior to landfall, in which case they may bump it up in a special advisory. Ultimately they are very, very weary to explicitly forecast category 5 landfalls due to the rarity and sheer number of things that have to fall into place for them to occur.


FWIW,
I don’t remember many storms having Cat5 designation unless they were still out in the open ocean- and it was undeniable.

Other than that, I recall a LOT of storms being REcategorized to Cat5 after the fact based on damage assessments and reevaluating all data.
0 likes   
Cleo - 1964, Betsy - 1965, David - 1979, Andrew - 1992, Charlie (Francis, Ivan, Jeanne) - 2004, Irma - 2017, Ian - 2022

Fancy1001
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 452
Joined: Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:16 pm

Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5688 Postby Fancy1001 » Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:39 am

Is it just me, or does the eye look to be shrinking a bit.
0 likes   

wx98
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1383
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 9:24 pm

Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5689 Postby wx98 » Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:40 am

First tornado warning just went up between Hammond and Baton Rouge. Meanwhile on the other side of the state, the first band of storms is now approaching Lake Charles.
1 likes   

User avatar
FLpanhandle91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1033
Age: 34
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:50 pm
Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL

Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5690 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:40 am

wx98 wrote:
FLpanhandle91 wrote:
wx98 wrote:I see that as well. Let’s see if they find an outer wind maxima here in a little bit.


Could be the nature of the radar beam being tilted to the 25,0000+ foot level at that distance being obscured by those cloud tops and then picking up the subsequent higher tops around the eye? It appears that the apparent most feature is filling in on radar now.


Thank you! I actually had this thought as well after I posted about it having more to do with the radar beam angle.


But if recon finds double wind maxima, then there's no denying he's right :D
1 likes   

Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6684
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5691 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:40 am

That is correct.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K
BigB0882 wrote:If memory serves me correctly, Michael wasn't even classified as a Category 5 until they did their re-evaluation later on.
0 likes   

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2124
Age: 22
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Williamsburg, VA / Bermuda

Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5692 Postby Kazmit » Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:41 am

Unreal

Image
6 likes   
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5693 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:41 am

6 likes   

User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3383
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5694 Postby tropicwatch » Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:41 am

O Town wrote:
CronkPSU wrote:Not sure it matters much with this kind of storm surge but will it be approaching land fall at low or high tide?

High tide 1:14am At Sabine Pass


Very close to high tide time.
1 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'

User avatar
Highteeld
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2139
Age: 41
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:10 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5695 Postby Highteeld » Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:43 am

T 6.5, but ragged eye.

Image
0 likes   
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5696 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:45 am

4 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

shiny-pebble
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 299
Joined: Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:38 pm

Re: RE: Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5697 Postby shiny-pebble » Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:45 am

Fancy1001 wrote:Is it just me, or does the eye look to be shrinking a bit.
Yes I'm seeing that too. I don't think its a EWRC because the last microwave imagery shows a very thick eyewall...

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
0 likes   
Not an meteorologist! Just someone who is interested in weather. Please refer to the NHC and local weather officials to make decisions.
-Jack 8-)

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5698 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:46 am

Image
5 likes   

User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3352
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5699 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:46 am

Fancy1001 wrote:Is it just me, or does the eye look to be shrinking a bit.


Eye contractions would be on par with continued intensification.
4 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

User avatar
HurricaneEnzo
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 739
Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:18 pm
Location: Newport, NC (Hurricane Alley)

Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5700 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:46 am

Recon appears to be on outermost edge of storm. Can't wait to see new data.
0 likes   
Bertha 96' - Fran 96' - Bonnie 98' - Dennis 99' - Floyd 99' - Isabel 03' - Alex 04' - Ophelia 05' - Irene 11' - Arthur 14' - Matthew 16' - Florence 18' - Dorian 19' - Isaias 20' (countless other tropical storms and Hurricane swipes)

I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests