ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

SFMR looks to confirm Category 4 with 120 knot winds. Waiting for dropsonde.

[aspen]

It's like Michael and Katrina had a baby

More like Michael and Rita — the RI through landfall like Michael, and the landfall location of Rita. I think Laura will hit almost exactly where Rita made landfall, just a little east of Sabine Pass.

[TallyTracker]

With close to 12 hours left to landfall, Laura still has plenty of time to crack Cat 5 strength. Not sure that it will...certainly doesn’t matter. Cat 4 winds are plenty bad enough...

[ColdMiser123]

Solid cat 4. When’s the “shear” supposed to set in?

18z-21z (2 pm-5 pm EDT) should be a shear minimum for the storm.

By 6z (2 am EDT tomorrow), shear should be picking up to where no further intensification should be expected, but this very well may make landfall by then.

[Highteeld]

It's like Michael and Katrina had a baby

More like Michael and Rita — the RI through landfall like Michael, and the landfall location of Rita. I think Laura will hit almost exactly where Rita made landfall, just a little east of Sabine Pass.

I guess I refer to Katrina due to a very large wind field, but that's a good point

[wx98]

Figured extrap pressure would be a little lower but maybe it’s just the winds catching up to the earlier pressure drops. The eye is contracting so higher winds make sense.

[supercane4867]

[TallyTracker]

Solid cat 4. When’s the “shear” supposed to set in?

18z-21z (2 pm-5 pm EDT) should be a shear minimum for the storm.

By 6z (2 am EDT tomorrow), shear should be picking up to where no further intensification should be expected, but this very well may make landfall by then.

So basically shear isn’t gonna stop this monster in time. Only internal changes/dynamics will result in intensity changes at this point.

[cheezyWXguy]

It seems the western portion of the area affected by the Easter tornado outbreak may get another round of tornadoes today or tonight

[Steve]

It’s starting to howl here. Winds sustained in the 20’s gusting into mid and upper 30’s pretty regularly. No rain so far but more wind than Cristobal and Marco. We are roughly 200 miles east of Lake Charles and a few hundred miles from the center. Kinda wild afternoon ahead. I looked at beach cams in NWFL and waves are kicking up there too. That’s another 220-250 miles east of me.

[galaxy401]

I had family members that used to live in that region of Louisiana. They've been to Lake Charles. That area is very flat in terrain. A strong surge will devastate that area.

[Sciencerocks]

[SouthFLTropics]

I have a friend who is a merchant marine and is riding out Laura on a tugboat in Lake Charles.


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[Nimbus]

Solid cat 4. When’s the “shear” supposed to set in?

As a "mean lady" with a large eye the inflow volume is a lot higher so she might get some dry air.
Doubt she is greedy enough to try another Eyewall replacement cycle though thats a pretty large eye.
By the way Canids have four claws on their rear feet, Storm2K mods hould fix that auto edit....

[wkwally]

I hope that most evacuations are complete will not be a good time to be on the road or caught in traffic.

[KWT]

Looks like we have a legitimate 120kts hurricane, and definitely an upgrade to cat4 is incoming.

[PTPatrick]

It's like Michael and Katrina had a baby

More like Michael and Rita — the RI through landfall like Michael, and the landfall location of Rita. I think Laura will hit almost exactly where Rita made landfall, just a little east of Sabine Pass.

I guess I refer to Katrina due to a very large wind field, but that's a good point

Overall wind field wise she’s still just over half as big as katrina...so a ways to go still.

[NotoSans]

Based on NHC working best track and latest recon fix, Laura has intensified by 50KT over the past 24hours, and 20KT over the past 6hours alone.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I have a friend who is a merchant marine and is riding out Laura on a tugboat in Lake Charles.


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Your friend might want to reconsider that. Highly.

[SconnieCane]

I'm used to tornado warnings with the outer bands of landfalling tropical cyclones, but I've seldom if ever seen severe thunderstorm warnings for damaging straight-line winds from cells in the outer bands. Was one earlier west of New Orleans (still in effect actually), now one near Lake Charles as well.