ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[BYG Jacob]

If it's any good news, southern eyewall storm still has some catching up to do.

The side of the eye that matters least

[Texashawk]

https://i.imgur.com/bF1bVa6.gif
Wow.

I swear that eye is still moving more west than north. It's almost due south of Lake Charles. Is the storm supposed to do a 90 degree turn north at this point?

[eastcoastFL]

This is absolutely astonishing. These coastal area will never look the same. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw power outages across Texas,Louisiana , Arkansas and into the mid Atlantic states from Laura. The damage will be spread way out over large swathes of the region.

[Highteeld]

If it hits 130 knots before 0z tonight, ERI will have occured.

[FLpanhandle91]

1:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 26
Location: 27.3°N 92.5°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 952 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph

That's 57 knots and 38mb stronger than the 1:00PM CDT advisory from yesterday.

[eastcoastFL]

https://i.imgur.com/bF1bVa6.gif
Wow.

I swear that eye is still moving more west than north. It's almost due south of Lake Charles. Is the storm supposed to do a 90 degree turn north at this point?

It’s moving NW right now and then NNW tonight

[Hypercane_Kyle]

As pointed out, 145 mph was the predicted intensity tonight. The storm has clearly continued to intensity faster than expected. My guess is a 155 mph peak, weakening to 145mph.

Category 5 is definitely on the table, especially if it continues to fire off hot towers and avoids an EWRC.

[sponger]

At least it is heading for a low population center. Imagine if this made it to Houston. Damages would be 10 times what they may end op being. Now if it will just turn the way it is supposed to.

[Extratropical94]

Center dropsonde: 953/9kts

NE eyewall dropsonde: only 86 kt at the surface, but 140 kt at 930 mb (900 ft)

Edit: It should be noted that the dropsonde was launched in the NE eyewall but splashed down in the considerably weaker NW eyewall

[Shell Mound]

I think she's pretty much leveling off right now. We may see one more round of strengthening early tonight as we approach DMAX before it levels off and/or weakens a couple hours before landfall.

If we see that round of strengthening then 155-160mph would be possible otherwise 140-145mph will be the top intensity. Landfall should be 135-140mph unless EWRC occurs.

Increase in shear and/or cooler shelf waters could also cause this to weaken. The lowest strength will be 110/115mph and highest 145mph.

Currently, the short-term movement appears to be between WNW and NW, implying stronger-than-expected ridging and hence less VWS at the time of landfall.

Given this observation and others, I think high-end Cat-4 or low-end Cat-5 status may be sustained all the way up until landfall. VWS increases after landfall.

[eastcoastFL]

Some of the bouys near Laura are reporting 34ft waves

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42395

[Beef Stew]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1298679386690863106

[FLpanhandle91]

Center dropsonde: 953/9kts

NE eyewall dropsonde: only 86 kt at the surface, but 140 kt at 930 mb (900 ft)

Slight decrease in strong convection around the eyewall right now. Next burst could mix a good portion of those winds down to the surface.

[eastcoastFL]

Center dropsonde: 953/9kts

NE eyewall dropsonde: only 86 kt at the surface, but 140 kt at 930 mb (900 ft)

That’s scary. Those winds will make their way down to the surface eventually won’t they?

[Ivanhater]

Remember the good ol days between 2005 and 2017 when no major hurricane hit the United states?

[NotoSans]

Strong words from NHC forecasters
 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1298678305965703169

[cfisher]

I'm definitely concerned about this track being more west

[GCANE]

New 366 Theta E ridge has developed W of the CoC.
She'll likely track thru it if it expands.
Otherwise will entrain most of it.

Dryline convection has expanded dramatically.
She's has taken out all the dry air that she could have tracked into on approach.

Latest GFS has 13 knt shear on approach.

Starting to look like strengthening could happen all the way to landfall if an EWRC doesn't occur.

Would be extremely bad if a large hot tower would fire on landfall.
They have been packing mega helicity.

[msbee]

Be safe everyone please. and if you can get out, please get out. I survived Hurricane Irma. We in the Caribbean have nowhere to evacuate to. I don't want to ever go through a CAT 4 or 5 again.

[BYG Jacob]

Remember the good ol days between 2005 and 2017 when no major hurricane hit the United states?

I remember when Sandy was the biggest deal of the 2010s, good times