ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Fancy1001]

New 366 Theta E ridge has developed W of the CoC.
She'll likely track thru it if it expands.
Otherwise will entrain most of it.

Dryline convection has expanded dramatically.
She's has taken out all the dry air that she could have tracked into on approach.

Latest GFS has 13 knt shear on approach.

Starting to look like strengthening could happen all the way to landfall if an EWRC doesn't occur.

Would be extremely bad if a large hot tower would fire on landfall.
They have been packing mega helicity.


https://i.imgur.com/g8pYdo0.png

https://i.imgur.com/LCcPdGT.png

https://i.imgur.com/eh3gA0P.png

So basically there is very little stopping it from strengthening all the way to landfall, other than an ERC. Is that correct?

Pretty much.

Then I will hold to my previous prediction of a peak of 920mb/160mph

[FLpanhandle91]

Took a gulp of dry air at some point. Mixing it out now. You can see it on IR in the eastern eyewall.

[wx98]

Current ADT to compare to recon:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 AUG 2020 Time : 172020 UTC
Lat : 27:16:48 N Lon : 92:26:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 929.4mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +14.6C Cloud Region Temp : -68.2C

Scene Type : EYE

[FLpanhandle91]

An illusion, it’s still moving NW.

Stair stepping its way right into Galveston Bay. Going to be yet another exciting critical turn the NHC is famous for forecasting correctly.

Is that suppose to be sarcastic at the end?

Nope. They nail it most times.

[PandaCitrus]

I'm tracking the eye on radar. On its current trajectory of the past few hours, it will make landfall well SOUTH of Galveston. There is time for it to move more northerly but I'm concerned that the unexpected strength may be pumping up the ridge more than the models expected. It is more and more likely if these trends persist that the center will pass to the west of Port Arthur and put Beaumont and that whole area on the dirty side.

An illusion, it’s still moving NW.

https://i.imgur.com/bF1bVa6.gif
Wow.

I swear that eye is still moving more west than north. It's almost due south of Lake Charles. Is the storm supposed to do a 90 degree turn north at this point?

[KWT]

Worrying to see those 130-140kts literally just above the surface. A fair chance those mix down at least as guests, and imo likely it mixes down to the surface and if it does we are knocking on cat-5 door...

[GCANE]

Little south of forecast track

[beyokan]

Pressure only 953? That's surprisingly high to me.

I noticed that as well, you think it'd be lower.
Florence (150 Mph) - 937 mb
Harvey (130 mph) - 937 mb
Joaquin (155 mph) - 931 mb
Gonzalo (145 mph) - 940 mb
The only storm I found in recent years around Laura's strength with such a relatively "high" pressure was Nicole in 2016.. wonder what the reasoning is.

[cfisher]

Theoretically, would a stronger and more stacked storm be more inclined to move west?

[Fancy1001]

Stair stepping its way right into Galveston Bay. Going to be yet another exciting critical turn the NHC is famous for forecasting correctly.

Is that suppose to be sarcastic at the end?

Nope. They nail it most times.

I'm just thinking of charley and how they screwed up its turn.

[wx98]

I'm tracking the eye on radar. On its current trajectory of the past few hours, it will make landfall well SOUTH of Galveston. There is time for it to move more northerly but I'm concerned that the unexpected strength may be pumping up the ridge more than the models expected. It is more and more likely if these trends persist that the center will pass to the west of Port Arthur and put Beaumont and that whole area on the dirty side.

An illusion, it’s still moving NW.

I swear that eye is still moving more west than north. It's almost due south of Lake Charles. Is the storm supposed to do a 90 degree turn north at this point?

The TX coast is still in play. Coming in south of Beaumont instead of Cameron/Holly Beach is a real possibility.

[Weatherboy1]

All I can say is stay safe and be smart with a storm like this. Nothing to mess around with!

[p1nheadlarry]

Pressure only 953? That's surprisingly high to me.

I noticed that as well, you think it'd be lower.
Florence (150 Mph) - 937 mb
Harvey (130 mph) - 937 mb
Joaquin (155 mph) - 931 mb
Gonzalo (145 mph) - 940 mb
The only storm I found in recent years around Laura's strength with such a relatively "high" pressure was Nicole in 2016.. wonder what the reasoning is.

Higher environmental pressure; remember it's the pressure gradient that drives the wind speed not just lower pressure. Matthew was the same way (Cat 5 @ 940-ish)

[hohnywx]

Is that suppose to be sarcastic at the end?

Nope. They nail it most times.

I'm just thinking of charley and how they screwed up its turn.

That was 16 years ago. Track forecasting has improved. And they are the best of the best.

[supercane4867]

Eye presentation is slowly improving on IR

[Blinhart]

I have a friend who is a merchant marine and is riding out Laura on a tugboat in Lake Charles.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

That's not a good thing, they need to go as far up the Calcasieu River as possible.

[aspen]

Seems like the AF recon flight is having transmission issues again. It should’ve reported back by now.

[PandaCitrus]

I agree and this puts a higher population area under the worst conditions. That part of the Texas Coast is much more populated. 250,000+ people vs. 6,000 for Cameron Parish. It would be a major disaster of a different magnitude.

The TX coast is still in play. Coming in south of Beaumont instead of Cameron/Holly Beach is a real possibility.

[wx98]

Radar currently showing the center of the eye approximately 175 miles SSE of Cameron, LA and 215 miles SE of Beaumont, TX. Looking for a landfall between these areas around the state line.

[Shell Mound]

I'm tracking the eye on radar. On its current trajectory of the past few hours, it will make landfall well SOUTH of Galveston. There is time for it to move more northerly but I'm concerned that the unexpected strength may be pumping up the ridge more than the models expected. It is more and more likely if these trends persist that the center will pass to the west of Port Arthur and put Beaumont and that whole area on the dirty side.

An illusion, it’s still moving NW.

I swear that eye is still moving more west than north. It's almost due south of Lake Charles. Is the storm supposed to do a 90 degree turn north at this point?

Actually, based on radar, extrapolation yields a NW movement and landfall over Holly Beach, LA. This trajectory would place Lake Charles solidly in the northeastern eyewall.