Central Atlantic Tropical Wave (Is Invest 91L)

[Cpv17]

I have a question guys and this probably isn’t the right place to ask this but I was wondering how long would it take for water to recover after a major passes through it?

It depends on where the water is. Around the Gulf and Bahamas area, some areas in the Caribbean as well, it will take a few days to get the temperatures back to where it was before any storm. This is because the waters there are more shallow than the deep waters of the Atlantic. Even so, the Gulf will still be in reasonable temperature range to allow another storm to go over it without weakening, maybe just not such rapid strengthening like with Laura. By this storm reaches the Gulf, if that’s where it ends up, the temperatures will be back to where they were before Marco and Laura.

Exactly what I was wondering. Thank you!

[SFLcane]

Convection on the increase...

[Cpv17]

Convection on the increase...

https://i.imgur.com/R9YUHeV.png

I’ve noticed that the stronger the models initialize a storm, the more ensemble support it usually has. Has that always been the case or is that just something going on this year?

[SFLcane]

A westward moving tropical wave is expected to move off of the west
coast of Africa tonight. Although environmental conditions do not
appear to be conducive for development as the wave crosses the
eastern Atlantic over the next few days, conditions could become
more favorable for slow development of the system as it reaches the
central and western tropical Atlantic early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[ouragans]

Isn't there a problem with the 5-days image?

[SouthFLTropics]

A westward moving tropical wave is expected to move off of the west
coast of Africa tonight. Although environmental conditions do not
appear to be conducive for development as the wave crosses the
eastern Atlantic over the next few days, conditions could become
more favorable for slow development of the system as it reaches the
central and western tropical Atlantic early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Wash, rinse, repeat...same story over and over again. Slow to develop until it gets farther west.


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[SFLcane]

[Cpv17]

https://i.imgur.com/LetxOX4.png

That seems to be the same general region that Laura tracked over and started getting her act together and we all know how that turned out.

[EquusStorm]

Yeahhh that is NOT a good trend. 2005-eqsue homegrown storms rapidly ramping up approaching land rather than a 1995/2010-esque recurve fest. The dry air certainly may make things WORSE for us.

[Cpv17]

Yeahhh that is NOT a good trend. 2005-eqsue homegrown storms rapidly ramping up approaching land rather than a 1995/2010-esque recurve fest. The dry air certainly may make things WORSE for us.

Look at the ridging on the latest Euro. That’s crazy! Sends this wave into south Texas.

[CyclonicFury]

The 12z operational ECMWF doesn't develop this, but after it going through phases where it didn't develop pre-Isaias or pre-Laura (and it never really developed pre-Marco at all), its model output is questionable considering the time of year. I wouldn't bet on it being quiet for the next 10 days after Laura.

[HuracanMaster]

The 12z operational ECMWF doesn't develop this, but after it going through phases where it didn't develop pre-Isaias or pre-Laura (and it never really developed pre-Marco at all), its model output is questionable considering the time of year. I wouldn't bet on it being quiet for the next 10 days after Laura.

My thoughts exactly. We are nearing the peak
and this will be in the middle of it!

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[gatorcane]

Here is what the 18Z Aug 19th GFS run showed for today’s forecast (7 days out):

[toad strangler]

https://i.imgur.com/LetxOX4.png

Interesting that there is a lemon present on this map from the Lesser Antilles on East. Had to be a mistake. There’s nothing there.

[AutoPenalti]

https://i.imgur.com/LetxOX4.png

Interesting that there is a lemon present on this map East of the Lesser Antilles. Had to be a mistake. There’s nothing there.

That’s their 5-day outlook. There’s a 20% chance of development in that area within 5 days.

[gatorcane]

https://i.imgur.com/LetxOX4.png

Interesting that there is a lemon present on this map from the Lesser Antilles on East. Had to be a mistake. There’s nothing there.

From the outlook, that is where development would be possible but maybe they should have put an X over the wave near Africa and drawn an arrow to the shaded area.

[Cpv17]

Here is what the 18Z Aug 19th GFS run showed for today’s forecast (7 days out):

https://i.postimg.cc/fbzS3Qjx/gfs-z850-vort-atl-26.png

You still love the GFS? I must add that the Euro wasn’t any better though.

[toad strangler]

Got it. Thx gents!

[cycloneye]

A westward-moving tropical wave located just off the west coast of
Africa about 400 miles east-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is
producing disorganized shower activity. Although environmental
conditions are not expected to be conducive for development during
the next couple of days, they are forecast to gradually become more
favorable over the weekend and into early next week when the wave
moves into the central and western tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[AnnularCane]

That's better. It looked incomplete without the X.