ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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wx98
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5981 Postby wx98 » Wed Aug 26, 2020 1:44 pm

Extratropical94 wrote:183500 2720N 09229W 6966 02711 9447 +210 +074 224012 017 030 001 00

Significantly lower than last pass...
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5982 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 26, 2020 1:45 pm

945 mb extrap
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5983 Postby Cunxi Huang » Wed Aug 26, 2020 1:45 pm

183500 2720N 09229W 6966 02711 9447 +210 +074 224012 017 030 001 00


944.7. At least 125 kt now I would say. :double:
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5984 Postby Highteeld » Wed Aug 26, 2020 1:45 pm

The euro is nailing the short term intensity trends
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5985 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 26, 2020 1:45 pm

That theta-e ridge is doing the job
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5986 Postby Fancy1001 » Wed Aug 26, 2020 1:46 pm

Looks like they are going to check the NE eyewall.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5987 Postby Airboy » Wed Aug 26, 2020 1:46 pm

Well, that was a huge drope since last pass.......
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5988 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Aug 26, 2020 1:46 pm

Live local coverage out of Lake Charles.

https://www.kplctv.com/live/
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5989 Postby edu2703 » Wed Aug 26, 2020 1:46 pm

Jeff Piotrowski reported on his stream that some storm chasers are already trapped by surge along Louisiana highway 82 on the coast. I just hope they are safe.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5990 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Aug 26, 2020 1:47 pm

SFMR was 105 knots on the NW side, which is a significant improvement.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5991 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Wed Aug 26, 2020 1:47 pm

One can simply look at the outflow and convection along the Texas coast right now to gauge wind shear. The trough axis appears to be a bit more inland than the what earlier shear maps have shown.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5992 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 26, 2020 1:47 pm

Buoys reporting 45' waves
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5993 Postby MississippiWx » Wed Aug 26, 2020 1:47 pm

The shear Northwest of the hurricane is partially due to its own outflow. It will likely not be 25kts of shear shredding it at landfall. Shear effects will be subtle.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5994 Postby wkwally » Wed Aug 26, 2020 1:48 pm

Blinhart wrote:Really wish people would stop saying Houston is in the cross hairs still, that would would be a catastrophic failure if it happens.

it is not that we want it to come here because as you say it would be catastrophic but we are very nervous here and trying to get a better fix on this. My self I will not have that warm and fuzzy feeling until it makes that turn North.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5995 Postby Hurrilurker » Wed Aug 26, 2020 1:48 pm

edu2703 wrote:Jeff Piotrowski reported on his stream that some storm chasers are already trapped by surge along Louisiana highway 82 on the coast. I just hope they are safe.

If they are indeed "trapped" and it's the same surge the NHC is describing as "unsurvivable" that's not too good...
Last edited by Hurrilurker on Wed Aug 26, 2020 1:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5996 Postby Highteeld » Wed Aug 26, 2020 1:48 pm

Saving this for archiving purposes

Image
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5997 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Aug 26, 2020 1:48 pm

Giving the improvement trend in visible satellite, that pressure drop is unsurprising IMO.
Last edited by supercane4867 on Wed Aug 26, 2020 1:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5998 Postby aspen » Wed Aug 26, 2020 1:49 pm

A 5-10 mbar drop since last pass. I wonder why the pressure was still in the low 950s when recon got there.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#5999 Postby Michele B » Wed Aug 26, 2020 1:49 pm



Well, didn't Rail Dawg put up cameras, too?

Not live, but cams until they blow away is good....
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion

#6000 Postby Beef Stew » Wed Aug 26, 2020 1:49 pm

8 mb pressure drop in an hour, and the eye is looking the cleanest it has yet. Talk about a bombing storm...
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