ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blow_Hard]

Really wish people would stop saying Houston is in the cross hairs still, that would would be a catastrophic failure if it happens.

It actually isn’t even going toward Houston at all. It is heading straight for Sabine Pass by looking at long radar loops.

And Michael was heading almost due North towards Ft. Walton / Destin for a long time and it was predicted to make a gradual NE turn and it did just that about 100 miles away from the coast and that little NE bend took places like Panama City Beach, 30A, Panama City out of the NE Quad and put Mexico Beach at Ground Zero. I think Laura is moving according to predictions and it's going to make that NNW / N turn later on.

Also, I remember Michael with about 4 or 5 of those little MVs in the Eye and they looked like little gears and as he worked them out he got a little stronger...I see Laura with that same appearance. The two are similar in so many ways. My heart is very heavy because I know tomorrow at this time the places where that eyewall comes ashore are going to be completely devastated and forever changed...

[cfisher]

Laura will be among the top 5 most intense US landfalling hurricanes of all time.

[hershels]

Really wish people would stop saying Houston is in the cross hairs still, that would would be a catastrophic failure if it happens.

it is not that we want it to come here because as you say it would be catastrophic but we are very nervous here and trying to get a better fix on this. My self I will not have that warm and fuzzy feeling until it makes that turn North.

the truth, you speak it

[Highteeld]

8 mb pressure drop in an hour, and the eye is looking the cleanest it has yet. Talk about a bombing storm...

Eye temp jumped up 2.41*C in the last 30 minutes. Seems like extreme warmth in the eye is a sign of a very strong storm better than CDO alone. Dorian last year had a moderate CDO, but an eye temp that was an astonishing 21*C +.

[davidiowx]

Really wish people would stop saying Houston is in the cross hairs still, that would would be a catastrophic failure if it happens.

it is not that we want it to come here because as you say it would be catastrophic but we are very nervous here and trying to get a better fix on this. My self I will not have that warm and fuzzy feeling until it makes that turn North.

Everyone should be watching closely until it finally makes landfall from Houston to central LA. But there’s a lot of consensus this storm is going into the TX/LA border area. That doesn’t mean points to the west and east cant see hurricane force wind gust in the heavier squalls rotating across the area into the night and tomorrow morning.

[tolakram]

[tomatkins]

https://i.imgur.com/FuedghR.png

Definitely hugging the west side of the cone!

Yikes!

That would put in Houston in play again

IT would take a huge miss to get Houston into anything more than a stormy day, but it wouldnt take a huge miss to get Beaumont into the right side of the storm. The region around and south of Beaumont (including Port Arthur) is more populous with (I think) more oil infrastructure than the area around Lake Charles, and Lake Charles of course would still be on the right side of the storm - its not like they wouldnt get any major impacts.

[FLpanhandle91]

Really wish people would stop saying Houston is in the cross hairs still, that would would be a catastrophic failure if it happens.

It actually isn’t even going toward Houston at all. It is heading straight for Sabine Pass by looking at long radar loops.

And Michael was heading almost due North towards Ft. Walton / Destin for a long time and it was predicted to make a gradual NE turn and it did just that about 100 miles away from the coast and that little NE bend took places like Panama City Beach, 30A, Panama City out of the NE Quad and put Mexico Beach at Ground Zero. I think Laura is moving according to predictions and it's going to make that NNW / N turn later on.

Also, I remember Michael with about 4 or 5 of those little MVs in the Eye and they looked like little gears and as he worked them out he got a little stronger...I see Laura with that same appearance. The two are similar in so many ways. My heart is very heavy because I know tomorrow at this time the places where that eyewall comes ashore are going to be completely devastated and forever changed...

Quick aside from Laura. I live in Fort Walton Beach, and seeing Michael moving due north when it was south of us and trusting that NHC/model guidance to turn northeast had me sweating bullets.

[northjaxpro]

Jeff Piotrowski reported on his stream that some storm chasers are already trapped by surge along Louisiana highway 82 on the coast. I just hope they are safe.

Yeah I was wondering about this in anticipation of this humongous storm surge coming in toward the coast, and I just hope they get out of there before the real tmasdive wall of water comes in overnight as Laura landfalls.

[wx98]

Jeff Piotrowski reported on his stream that some storm chasers are already trapped by surge along Louisiana highway 82 on the coast. I just hope they are safe.

82 runs west from Holly Beach to Sabine Pass. That is perhaps the WORST place to be.

[wkwally]

Scoping out Car Washes

https://twitter.com/Jeff_Piotrowski/status/1298691220894433280

Now we're talking! Stay safe Jeff, and find us a blue shed.

Jeff you sure you want another car wash? scaring us during Harvey was nerve shaking.

[GCANE]

Eye is just about cleared out on Vis.
Almost perfect circle.
Maybe one minor mesovort.

[Blinhart]

Jeff Piotrowski reported on his stream that some storm chasers are already trapped by surge along Louisiana highway 82 on the coast. I just hope they are safe.

I said Hwy 82 was a no go

[storminabox]

It's so hard to keep up with all of these posts. Unfortunately, this storm did as we all feared and rapidly intensified into a true monster. I desperately hope that everyone in the areas that will be affected are ready. The surge with this event will be something for the record books.

[catskillfire51]

Recon is continuing NorthWest

[Michele B]

Laura will be among the top 5 most intense US landfalling hurricanes of all time.

Well, you gotta admit, she fought like hell to get into that club.

[jaxfladude]

Prayers for all!

[Cunxi Huang]

Impressive. Her eye is clearing up.

[supercane4867]

The chance of Laura NOT becoming a CAT5 is rapidly decreasing.

[dukeblue219]

eyewall sonde was 137kt just 10mb above the surface and 141kt just 11mb up. Those high winds from a few sondes ago are mixing down lower now.