ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Radar loop:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[wkwally]

The winds shown for my area (Tomball) on this map are much higher than what the NWS forecast for my area shows. Any idea what type of gusts I will have in my area. Trying to decide if I need to bring in the patio furniture.

https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=hgx

Bring in now, worry less later.

I brought mine in yesterday. We could get tropical storm force winds according to the NHS.

[KWT]

Pretty impressive increase in eyewall lightning in the last 15 minutes, probably about to go under another bout of intensification.

Yeah an indication of really intense convection in the eyewall.

Fair chance in that area those cat-5 winds aloft are being dragged down to the surface. Just going to be a matter of whether recon catches one of those regions in the next mission and whether any shear impacts before it gets there to limit that.

[cfisher]

She's really trying to bottom out, huh

[cheezyWXguy]

eye is now completely surrounded by -70C convection, for the first time as far as I can tell. This could be the start of another round.

[northjaxpro]

Carl Parker on TWC has been throwing around Category 5 very liberally in the last couple hours...

I am always cautious about what TWC says but they do show good footage of landfall when they get the location right.

Yeah, they certainly look to have got that right being hunkered down in Lake Charles.landfall is going to be surreal there , that is if they don't get knockeď off the air , or for their sakes seek refuge!!

[Cyclenall]

This surge could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate
coastline, and flood waters will not fully recede for several days
after the storm.

Oh shoot. Katrina's inland surge penetration was 6 miles . That might be the most insane weather statistic of 2020 so far aside from Death Valley reaching 54.4C (109F at 3 am too) the other week.

[Kazmit]

[Syx6sic]

NOAA2 Mission #24 into LAURA
Type: Unknown | Status: En Route

As of 21:11 UTC Aug 26, 2020:
Aircraft Position: 27.70°N 83.32°W
Bearing: 270° at 319 kt
Altitude: 5747 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 22 kt at 114°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A

[supercane4867]

Symmetry has improved quite a bit in the past hour. With CDO cooling again another round of intensification is likely starting.

[northjaxpro]

eye is now completely surrounded by -70C convection, for the first time as far as I can tell. This could be the start of another round.

If this is the case with the intense ring of convection around the eye, Laura in all likelihood would attain Category 5 status.

[Blinhart]

This surge could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate
coastline, and flood waters will not fully recede for several days
after the storm.

Oh shoot. Katrina's inland surge penetration was 6 miles . That might be the most insane weather statistic of 2020 so far aside from Death Valley reaching 54.4C (109F at 3 am too) the other week.

And 40 miles might not be far enough, it could be closer to 50, the Calcasieu River goes that far inland.

[Highteeld]

Should get some new recon data in an hour or so.

[Beef Stew]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1298729062727397379

[karenfromheaven]

Wow didn’t realize this storm was moving so fast. Can you imagine if this thing was moving slower over these warm waters?

Sometimes that works against the storm too, when it strengthens quickly and then weakens in the day or so leading to landfall. It's the storms that blow up right before landfall that scare me; see Michael for one example.

Remember those guys in the pickup truck in Mexico Beach? When the surge hit the truck started floating away live on the stream until it got to a house on stilts. They hopped out and broke in to the house and survived.

[dantonlsu]

Does anyone have the map that shows where the eye is relative to the forecasted track?

[Highteeld]

Eyewall beefing up, still intensifying

[Nimbus]

The winds shown for my area (Tomball) on this map are much higher than what the NWS forecast for my area shows. Any idea what type of gusts I will have in my area. Trying to decide if I need to bring in the patio furniture.

https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=hgx

Flooding might be more of a concern but assuming you are high and dry in a cement construction house..
You should at least have some water jugs freezing for when the power goes out, even if you have a generator those refrigerator compressors take a big draw and will trip the generator if you are running other stuff.

I stayed for a similar forecast and inland winds were still 80 mph with power outages that lasted up to a week.
I've stayed through several voluntary evacuations in Florida.

Edit: to add

Loctite PL S30 10 fl. oz. Black Polyurethane Roof and Flashing Sealant is good stuff for gluing down loose shingles and resealing your roof vents after the storm.

[supercane4867]

 https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/1298729062727397379

[tarheelprogrammer]

Mannnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn, this sure does look like a category 5 hurricane to me. How much better looking can something like this possibly get?